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Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Global Economy Dissertation Topics

Published by Carmen Troy at January 6th, 2023 , Revised On August 15, 2023

Introduction

We are currently confined to our homes by a novel, global virus named Coronavirus, which in medical science is known as COVID-19. The Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak has redefined our relationships with the outside world and the government. The crisis had a large-scale effect on the economy of the world.

To help you get started with brainstorming for ideas, we have developed a list of amazing topics that can be used for writing your dissertation.

These topics have been developed by PhD qualified writers of our team , so you can trust to use these topics for drafting your own dissertation.

You may also want to start your dissertation by requesting a brief research proposal from our writers on any of these topics, which includes an introduction to the topic, research question , aim and objectives, literature review , along with the proposed methodology of research to be conducted. Let us know if you need any help in getting started.

Check our dissertation example to get an idea of how to structure your dissertation .

Review step by step guide on how to write your own dissertation here.

Topic 1: COVID-19 and Disruptive Innovation in Global Supply Chains: A Study to Find Innovations in Supply Chain Processes due to COVID-19

Research Aim: This research aims to find the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on disruptive innovations in global supply chains. It will analyze the changes in the supply chain process across the globe. It will find the overall impact of COVID-19 based disruptive innovations on the global supply chain process and its segments such as production, distribution, etc. It will study different industries to show how COVID-19 forced them to innovate their supply chain networks and tailor them in future COVID-19 restrictions.

Topic 2: COVID-19 and Employment Disruption: A Study to find the Impact of COVID-19 on the Creation and Elimination of Employment around the Globe

Research Aim: This study intends to find the impact of COVID-19 on the creation and elimination of employment around the globe. It will show COVID-19 forced businesses around the world to let go of some jobs and adopt new ones. It will further show what kind of skills employee requires to work in the post-COVID world. Moreover, it will show the effects of COVID-19 employment disruptions on the equilibrium in the job markets (labor demand vs. supply) and the new wage rates.

Topic 3: Does COVID-19 Lockdowns Force Emerging Economies to Halt their CO_2 Emission Reduction Goal to Restart their Economies?

Research Aim: This research analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the emerging economies’ progress in CO_2 emission reduction goal to restart their economies. It will assess the effects of COVID-19 on emerging economies’ aggregate production and employment levels. Therefore, it will show whether to take aggregate output and employment back to pre-COVID levels, do emerging economies need to forgo their CO_2 emission reduction goals. Moreover, it will use successful cases to recommend small emerging economies to increase output and employment and carry on CO_2 emission reduction goals.

Topic 4: Who Won the COVID-19 Vaccine War? A Study on the Global Inequality in the COVID-19 Vaccination among Underdeveloped and Developing Countries

Research Aim: This research assesses the global inequality in the vaccination distribution among underdeveloped and developing countries. It will find the political and economic factors which influenced the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine. Moreover, it will analyze the impact of inequality within underdeveloped and developing countries on vaccine distribution among the rich and poor. It will also find why underdeveloped and developing countries can’t vaccinate the entire population? How can they vaccinate the whole population, and what is the cost per individual?

Topic 5: The International Political Economy (IPE) of COVID-19: A Study to Find the Potential Political and Economic Winners of COVID-19

Research Aim: This study investigates the International Political Economy (IPE) of COVID-19. It identifies the major political and economic winners of this pandemic. It will find how some political powers and businesses took advantage of the pandemic and increased their political and financial capital. It will analyze significant countries such as the US, China, Japan, etc. Large businesses such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Pizer, etc., took advantage of the pandemic by selling new products. Moreover, it will highlight some significant lessons from the pandemic, which can help small countries to prepare themselves for the future.

Coronavirus Covid-19 and Global Economy Research Topics – Editor’s Pick

Research to identify the impacts of coronavirus on the economy.

Research Aim: This study will focus on identifying the impacts of Coronavirus on the global economy.

Research to study the impacts of Coronavirus on the real estate sector

Research Aim: This research aims at identifying the impacts of coronavirus on the real estate sector. Is real estate a better option for investment during COVID-19?

Research to study the impacts of Coronavirus on the stock market.

Research Aim: This research aims at identifying the impacts of Coronavirus on the stock market.

Research to identify the impacts of Coronavirus on banking and the future of banking after the pandemic.

Research Aim: This research aims at identifying the impacts of Coronavirus on banking and the future of banking after the pandemic. What are the predictions? What challenges may come across? How to overcome those challenges?

Topic 2: The economic suffering due to the plague of COVID-19

Research Aim: The research must assess the disruption that has been created by the spread of COVID-19 in the world. This must include the countries’ global lockdown and the shutting of industries, resulting in soaring unemployment rates and a dramatic decline in economic statistics. The research aims to look at the economic consequences generated by the outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19 in general.

Topic 3: The major sufferings in the economy as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak

Research Aim: The research must assess the reasons behind the rising suffering in the specific business sectors and industries, for instance, the supply chain is suffering because China has become the manufacturing hub, which has brought disruption in the supply chain of the whole industry due to complete lockdown in the country. The research aims to study majorly affected regions such as the entertainment sector, tourism industry, restaurant sector, etc.

Topic 4: Estimated changes in the economic statistics by the outbreak of Coronavirus

Research Aim: The recent expected changes by the professionals about the impact of COVID-19 on the global economic statistics must be discussed in the research such as the estimated growth rates of the world and China were predicted to be 0% and 1.6%, respectively, for the year 2020 by the Ethan Harris, head of global economic research in the Bank of America according to his recent interview. Similarly, articles from other professionals must be included in the research to focus on the effects of an outbreak on the economy.

Topic 5: The impact of Coronavirus recession on consumer activity and economy

Research Aim: The research must assess the impact that the outbreak of the virus would have on the economy and, specifically, consumer behaviour as they drive three-quarters of the economic activity and are declining at a great pace. The impact on both small and large business enterprises must also be discussed in the research. The research aims to see whether the spread of the virus would alter consumer behaviour and the behaviours consumers would adapt.

Topic 6: The good and bad impacts of COVID-19 on the economy

Research Aim: The research would assess both the bad and the good side of the economy created by the spread of coronavirus COVID-19, such as the recession caused by the outbreak of the virus which is the bad side of the economy. The positive side consists of a reduction in mass consumption and stronger domestic supply chains.

Topic 7: The major regions and business industries affected by the spread of COVID-19

Research Aim: The research would assess the regions (cities and countries) which are being affected by the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 and the major impacted business industries such as the food industries like the restaurants are completely locked down after the outbreak of the virus and the people that were engaged in those industries are unemployed now. The research aims to focus on such industries and the impact of their lowered productivity on the economy.

Topic 8: The consequential effect of COVID-19 on financial markets and the economy.

Research Aim: The financial markets, for example, stock markets, are a great indicator of the economy’s stability. The research aims to focus on the effect on the financial markets generated by the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 such as the crash of global financial market 28th of March’ 2020 must be discussed herein which the people throughout the world witnessed a dramatic decline in the global stock market. The effects of this incident on the economy must be included in the research.

Topic 9: Recession as a consequence of the Coronavirus outbreak

Research Aim: The research would assess the consequences and the recession, which has already hit some parts of the world and is likely to hit others. The research aims to study the types of recessions that the world is likely to face, such as real recession, financial crisis, and policy recession. The consequences and the likelihood of an economic recession must be discussed in the research.

Topic 10: The recovery of the economy from the Coronavirus shock

Research Aim: Once the virus has been eliminated from the world and the people are cured through medical assistance, it would now be a crucial responsibility of the governments to get the economies back to their original conditions. The research aims to look at the recovery paths, consisting of a V-shaped, U-shaped, and L-shaped recovery path based on the economy’s scenario and condition. The effects of each type of recovery path must be discussed along with the fiscal and monetary policies applied.

Topic 11: The time spam of economic consequences of COVID-19 outbreak

Research Aim: The research would assess the intensity of the economic consequences of Coronavirus as it would help assess how long they would last in the economy. The research aims to assess certain aspects affected by the recession, such as the wealth of the people, the performance of financial markets and the consumer’s behaviour, and the disruption in the supply chain. The lasting capability of the recession depends on the disturbance in these regions mainly.

Topic 12: Economic risks generated by COVID-19 outbreak and government intervention

Research Aim: The research must assess the economic disruptions created by the outbreak of COVID-19 and the government’s role in controlling those risks. The research aims to study the historical insights of the roles played by the leaders at the times of recessions in the economy and apply them to the present time. Leaders play a great role in controlling the recessionary period of the economy.

Topic 13: Could the World Health Organization (WHO) play a role in controlling the economic recession headed by COVID-19?

Research Aim: The research must first assess what WHO has described COVID-19 and what precautions it has asked the people to take. The research aims to link the precautionary measures suggested by WHO for controlling the spread of the pandemic, which would eventually result in the betterment of the economy as people would return to their work and the industries would start to function again.

Topic 14: How has the COVID-19 outbreak shaped the working practices of business?

Research Aim: The research must assess the alternative working practices which the businesses have adopted. The research aims to study the ‘work from home’ strategy of the business, its advantages and disadvantages, and how it disrupts the smooth functioning of the businesses. The research may include the interviews or the views of people studying or working from home in the current situation.

Topic 15: Which business industry has been affected the most by the COVID-19 outbreak?

Research Aim: The research would assess the most affected industries: the ‘tourism industry’ and ‘food industry’. The research aims to study the companies in the respective industries and how they fail with their rapidly declining profits. The research must study the huge airline industries such as Emirates and international food chains such as McDonald’s and their losses in the current situation.

Topic 16: City lockdowns due to COVID-19 outbreak and their effects on the global economy

Research Aim: The research must assess the lockdowns currently occurring throughout the globe and which has jammed the economic wheel completely. The research aims to evaluate the factors responsible for the city lockdowns and the people’s alternative ways. This must include the scarcity of resources as people have started to hoard the frequently used items.

Topic 17: Likelihood of the recessionary phase of COVID-19 turning into depression

Research Aim: The research must assess the intensity of the recession created by the COVID-19 and its effects on the economy of the world. The research aims to get an insight into the government activities in this regard and the business industry, which would indicate the likeliness of the recessionary phase turning into depression. Recommendations could be made to point out what changes must be brought for controlling the economic situation.

Topic 18: Government role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 and eventually the economic meltdown

Research Aim: The research would assess the role the government of every country is playing to control the spread of Coronavirus, such as the medical aids given to the people with the role of the medical department of the countries. The research aims to look at the government’s role to save the people, ultimately saving the collapsing economy. The role of the World Health Organization must also be discussed in that regard.

Topic 19: COVID-19 economic recession and the changing business strategies

Research Aim: The research would assess the alternative ways businesses adapt to cope with the recession, such as creating a cross-functional response team for COVID-19, supply chain stabilization, and moving to online platforms to get closer to the customers. The research aims to look at how the companies know the people’s demands and fulfill their needs despite the difficult situation.

Topic 20: What must the businesses do to overcome the recessionary consequences of COVID-19.

Research Aim: The research aims to look at the historical records of how companies have coped while going through a recessionary phase, the strategies they adopted and kept the employees motivated. The research could use examples from the recession of 2008 and recommend strategies to the company.

The world currently needs to know what the economic condition is currently prevailing around the globe. There are several themes related to this topic that is not yet discovered. In the area of Coronavirus and the global economy, the topics mentioned above could make a significant contribution.

How Can ResearchProspect Help?

ResearchProspect writers can send several custom topic ideas to your email address. Once you have chosen a topic that suits your needs and interests, you can order for our dissertation outline service , which will include a brief introduction to the topic, research questions , literature review , methodology , expected results , and conclusion . The dissertation outline will enable you to review the quality of our work before placing the order for our full dissertation writing service !

Important Notes:

As an economics student looking to get good grades, it is essential to develop new ideas and experiment on existing covid-19 and the global economy – i.e., to add value and interest in your research topic.

The covid-19 and global economy fields are sure to become vast and interrelated to many other academic disciplines like civil engineering , construction , law , and even healthcare . That is why it is imperative to create a covid-19 and global economy topic that is articular, sound, and actually solves a practical problem that may be rampant in the field.

We can’t stress how important it is to develop a logical research topic based on your entire research. There are several significant downfalls to getting your topic wrong; your supervisor may not be interested in working on it, the topic has no academic creditability, the research may not make logical sense, there is a possibility that the study is not viable.

This impacts your time and efforts in writing your dissertation , as you may end up in the cycle of rejection at the initial stage of the dissertation. That is why we recommend reviewing existing research to develop a topic, taking advice from your supervisor, and even asking for help in this particular stage of your dissertation.

While developing a research topic, keeping our advice in mind will allow you to pick one of the best covid-19 and global economy dissertation topics that fulfill your requirement of writing a research paper and add to the body of knowledge.

Therefore, it is recommended that when finalizing your dissertation topic, you read recently published literature to identify gaps in the research that you may help fill.

Remember- dissertation topics need to be unique, solve an identified problem, be logical, and be practically implemented. Please look at some of our above sample covid-19 and global economy dissertation topics to get an idea for your own dissertation.

How to Structure your Dissertation

A well-structured dissertation can help students to achieve a high overall academic grade.

A Title Page
Acknowledgements
Declaration
Abstract: A summary of the research completed
Table of Contents
Introduction : This chapter includes the project rationale, research background, key research aims and objectives, and the research problems. An outline of the structure of a dissertation can also be added to this chapter.
Literature Review : This chapter presents relevant theories and frameworks by analysing published and unpublished literature on the chosen research topic to address research questions . The purpose is to highlight and discuss the selected research area’s relative weaknesses and strengths whilst identifying any research gaps. Break down the topic and key terms that can positively impact your dissertation and your tutor.
Methodology : The data collection and analysis methods and techniques employed by the researcher are presented in the Methodology chapter, which usually includes research design , research philosophy, research limitations, code of conduct, ethical consideration, data collection methods, and data analysis strategy .
Findings and Analysis : Findings of the research are analysed in detail under the Findings and Analysis chapter. All key findings/results are outlined in this chapter without interpreting the data or drawing any conclusions. It can be useful to include graphs, charts, and tables in this chapter to identify meaningful trends and relationships.
Discussion and Conclusion : The researcher presents his interpretation of results in this chapter and states whether the research hypothesis has been verified or not. An essential aspect of this section of the paper is to link the results and evidence from the literature. Recommendations with regards to implications of the findings and directions for the future may also be provided. Finally, a summary of the overall research, along with final judgments, opinions, and comments, must be included in the form of suggestions for improvement.
References : This should be completed following your University’s requirements
Bibliography
Appendices : Any additional information, diagrams, and graphs used to complete the dissertation but not part of the dissertation should be included in the Appendices chapter. Essentially, the purpose is to expand the information/data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How to find covid-19 and global economy dissertation topics.

To find COVID-19 and global economy dissertation topics:

Examine the pandemic’s economic effects.
Study sectors like tourism, health, and tech.
Analyze policy responses worldwide.
Explore supply chain disruptions.
Investigate remote work trends.
Consider long-term economic shifts.

Business Thesis Topics

This page provides a comprehensive list of business thesis topics designed to assist students in selecting relevant and impactful subjects for their academic papers. With 300 diverse topics spanning 10 key categories—ranging from agribusiness and business analytics to entrepreneurship and corporate social responsibility—this list covers current issues, recent trends, and future directions in the field of business. Whether you’re focusing on leadership strategies, digital business innovations, or sustainable practices, these topics offer a solid foundation for writing a successful thesis. Explore these thoughtfully curated topics to inspire your research and contribute to the evolving landscape of business studies.

300 Business Thesis Topics and Ideas

Selecting a suitable business thesis topic is a critical step in crafting a successful academic paper. The right topic should reflect current business challenges, recent innovations, and future trends that push the boundaries of business studies. To help you navigate this process, we’ve compiled a comprehensive list of 300 business thesis topics, organized into 10 diverse categories. These categories cover a wide range of subfields within business, from traditional management theories to emerging digital business practices. By exploring these topics, students can find inspiration for their own research and gain insight into the issues that will shape the future of the business world.

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The impact of climate change on agribusiness profitability.
Sustainable agriculture practices and their effect on business operations.
The role of technology in modernizing agribusiness.
Analyzing the global food supply chain and its challenges.
Agribusiness marketing strategies in the digital age.
The influence of governmental policies on agribusiness development.
The economics of organic farming vs. traditional agriculture.
Exploring the role of agribusiness in rural development.
Vertical farming and its business potential in urban settings.
Financial risk management in agribusiness enterprises.
Consumer perceptions of genetically modified foods and their market implications.
The role of corporate social responsibility in agribusiness sustainability.
The business case for precision agriculture in improving crop yields.
Supply chain disruptions in agribusiness: Causes and solutions.
Agribusiness innovation and its impact on global food security.
Marketing strategies for niche agribusiness markets.
Exploring farm-to-table business models in agribusiness.
The role of trade agreements in shaping global agribusiness markets.
Technological innovations in livestock farming and their business implications.
Agribusiness financing and its challenges in developing countries.
The future of aquaculture as a sustainable agribusiness.
The role of cooperatives in agribusiness success.
The influence of biotechnology on modern agribusiness.
The business opportunities of regenerative agriculture.
The role of women in the global agribusiness sector.
Financial strategies for agribusiness startups.
E-commerce and its impact on agribusiness sales channels.
Agribusiness adaptation to the post-pandemic world: Challenges and opportunities.
Ethical dilemmas in agribusiness: Balancing profit and sustainability.
The future of plant-based proteins in the agribusiness industry.

Business Administration Thesis Topics

The impact of leadership styles on organizational performance.
Business process re-engineering: A tool for improving organizational efficiency.
The role of corporate culture in business success.
Strategic management and its role in achieving business objectives.
The effect of employee motivation on business productivity.
Crisis management in business: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The role of innovation in business growth.
Exploring the relationship between corporate governance and business ethics.
The impact of mergers and acquisitions on business performance.
Strategies for effective decision-making in business management.
Talent management as a critical success factor in business administration.
Analyzing the effectiveness of corporate social responsibility initiatives.
Business continuity planning and risk management in large corporations.
Exploring the role of diversity in enhancing business performance.
The impact of digital transformation on business operations.
How to foster innovation in corporate environments.
Organizational change management and its challenges.
The role of emotional intelligence in leadership and business success.
Gender diversity in leadership positions: Challenges and opportunities.
Corporate strategy in times of economic uncertainty.
Managing cross-cultural teams in global organizations.
The future of remote work and its implications for business administration.
Knowledge management as a competitive advantage in business.
Corporate restructuring and its impact on employee performance.
The role of ethics in shaping business administration practices.
Employee retention strategies in high-turnover industries.
Exploring the role of mentoring programs in career development.
The relationship between corporate social responsibility and customer loyalty.
The role of corporate communication in managing business reputation.
The future of business administration in the era of artificial intelligence.

Business Analytics Thesis Topics

Predictive analytics and its application in business decision-making.
The role of big data in improving customer experience.
Data-driven marketing strategies: A key to business success.
Analyzing the role of machine learning in business analytics.
The impact of real-time data analytics on business operations.
Ethical challenges in business analytics and data privacy.
Forecasting business trends using business analytics tools.
The role of business intelligence in corporate strategic planning.
Using data analytics to optimize supply chain management.
How data visualization improves business decision-making processes.
The impact of social media analytics on business marketing strategies.
Customer segmentation using data analytics in retail businesses.
Business analytics in financial services: Improving investment decisions.
Predictive maintenance analytics in the manufacturing industry.
The role of analytics in human resources management.
How business analytics is transforming the healthcare industry.
The future of cloud analytics in business operations.
Business analytics and risk management in uncertain markets.
The use of text analytics in understanding customer sentiment.
Implementing business analytics for sustainable business practices.
Artificial intelligence and its impact on business analytics.
Using data analytics to enhance product development and innovation.
The role of prescriptive analytics in optimizing business strategies.
Predicting customer churn using business analytics models.
The importance of data governance in business analytics.
Exploring the role of business analytics in e-commerce growth.
The impact of IoT (Internet of Things) on business analytics.
Ethical implications of data mining in business.
The role of business analytics in shaping financial strategies.
Real-time analytics and its impact on business agility.

Business Informatics Thesis Topics

The role of business informatics in enhancing organizational efficiency.
Data integration challenges in business informatics.
Exploring the impact of cloud computing on business informatics.
The role of business informatics in digital transformation strategies.
Data management and analytics in business informatics.
The evolution of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems in modern businesses.
Information security challenges in business informatics.
The future of blockchain technology in business informatics.
Exploring the role of business informatics in supply chain optimization.
The importance of user interface design in business information systems.
Big data and its implications for business informatics.
Artificial intelligence applications in business informatics.
The role of business informatics in improving customer relationship management (CRM).
Cloud-based business informatics solutions and their impact on small businesses.
Business process modeling and simulation using business informatics tools.
Exploring the challenges of IT governance in business informatics.
The role of business informatics in healthcare management systems.
Mobile business informatics: Challenges and opportunities.
Data privacy regulations and their impact on business informatics.
Business informatics and decision support systems in financial institutions.
The role of informatics in transforming marketing strategies.
Exploring the integration of IoT (Internet of Things) in business informatics.
Business informatics solutions for risk management.
Business intelligence and its role in improving decision-making processes.
The future of automation in business informatics.
Real-time data processing in business informatics: Opportunities and challenges.
The role of machine learning in enhancing business informatics solutions.
How business informatics supports sustainable business practices.
Customer data management and its impact on business decision-making.
Business informatics and competitive advantage in the digital age.

Business Strategy Thesis Topics

The role of competitive strategy in business growth.
Strategic alliances and their impact on business success.
The influence of globalization on corporate strategies.
Analyzing the effectiveness of cost leadership strategies.
Corporate strategy in dynamic and uncertain markets.
The role of digital strategy in business transformation.
Strategic planning in family-owned businesses.
Diversification strategies in multinational corporations.
Corporate strategy and sustainability: A balanced approach.
The role of strategic innovation in corporate success.
The impact of technological advancements on business strategies.
Strategic decision-making in times of crisis.
The importance of stakeholder engagement in corporate strategy.
The role of business model innovation in achieving competitive advantage.
Exploring the impact of market entry strategies on business success.
The role of mergers and acquisitions in corporate strategy.
Strategic management of intellectual property in high-tech industries.
Corporate social responsibility and its integration into business strategies.
The impact of digital marketing on corporate strategy formulation.
Strategic leadership and its influence on organizational change.
How globalization is reshaping competitive strategies.
The role of corporate governance in strategy formulation.
Strategic risk management in volatile business environments.
The impact of disruptive innovation on corporate strategies.
Strategies for sustainable growth in emerging markets.
The role of corporate strategy in fostering organizational resilience.
Exploring the strategic implications of e-commerce adoption.
Strategic human resource management and its impact on business success.
The role of corporate culture in strategic execution.
Long-term strategic planning for business sustainability.

Digital Business Thesis Topics

The role of digital transformation in business growth.
Exploring the impact of e-commerce on traditional retail business models.
The future of digital payments and their impact on businesses.
How digital marketing strategies shape consumer behavior.
The role of artificial intelligence in enhancing digital business operations.
Digital business ecosystems and their influence on innovation.
The impact of mobile technology on business operations.
Exploring the potential of blockchain technology in digital business models.
Cybersecurity challenges in the digital business world.
The role of social media in transforming business marketing strategies.
Cloud computing and its impact on business scalability.
The influence of digital business strategies on customer experience.
Data analytics and its role in shaping digital business decisions.
The importance of omnichannel strategies in modern digital business.
Digital business innovation: Trends and challenges.
The role of user experience (UX) in digital business success.
How businesses can leverage digital platforms for competitive advantage.
The impact of automation on business productivity.
Digital supply chains and their role in business efficiency.
The future of digital business in the post-pandemic era.
Exploring the role of digital entrepreneurship in business innovation.
The impact of 5G technology on digital business transformation.
Digital platforms and their impact on traditional business models.
The role of digital innovation hubs in business development.
How data-driven insights shape digital business strategies.
The role of digital customer service in enhancing business performance.
Exploring the potential of virtual reality in digital business models.
Digital business transformation and the challenges of leadership adaptation.
The impact of digital business on supply chain management.
Ethical implications of digital business transformation.

International Business Thesis Topics

The impact of globalization on international business strategies.
Analyzing the role of cross-cultural management in international business.
Trade agreements and their influence on global business operations.
The impact of international business regulations on market entry strategies.
Exploring the challenges of managing international supply chains.
The role of emerging markets in global business expansion.
International business negotiations: Cultural and strategic considerations.
The influence of global economic trends on international business decisions.
International marketing strategies in the digital age.
The role of innovation in driving international business success.
Managing political risk in international business operations.
Global financial markets and their influence on business strategy.
The future of international business in the face of protectionism.
Cross-border mergers and acquisitions: Strategic implications.
The role of intellectual property rights in international business.
The challenges of managing expatriate employees in global corporations.
How foreign direct investment (FDI) influences international business growth.
International trade barriers and their impact on business strategies.
The impact of corporate governance practices on international business success.
Analyzing the role of international business ethics in corporate decision-making.
The role of digitalization in transforming international business operations.
Exploring global talent management strategies in multinational corporations.
The influence of global supply chain disruptions on international business.
Corporate social responsibility in international business: A comparative analysis.
The role of government regulations in shaping international business strategies.
International franchising: Challenges and opportunities.
The role of international joint ventures in business expansion.
The impact of technological innovation on international trade.
How cultural intelligence impacts leadership in international business.
Global business strategies for achieving sustainability.

Entrepreneurship Thesis Topics

The role of innovation in the success of entrepreneurial ventures.
Exploring the impact of social entrepreneurship on community development.
How startup ecosystems influence entrepreneurial success.
The importance of mentorship in the success of new ventures.
Female entrepreneurship: Barriers and opportunities in modern markets.
The role of technology in shaping entrepreneurial business models.
Crowdfunding as a financing strategy for startups.
Social media marketing strategies for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Exploring the role of family businesses in economic development.
The impact of government policies on fostering entrepreneurship.
Entrepreneurial strategies in developing countries: Challenges and opportunities.
Risk management strategies in new ventures.
The role of business incubators in promoting entrepreneurship.
Exploring the impact of entrepreneurial leadership on startup success.
Sustainability as a driving force in modern entrepreneurship.
Venture capital financing and its impact on startup success.
The role of entrepreneurial networks in business expansion.
Global trends in youth entrepreneurship: Challenges and success factors.
The impact of digital platforms on entrepreneurial opportunities.
Entrepreneurial exit strategies: Mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs.
The role of education in fostering entrepreneurial skills and mindsets.
Corporate entrepreneurship: Fostering innovation within established companies.
The influence of entrepreneurial mindset on business success.
How market research drives entrepreneurial opportunities.
The role of customer feedback in shaping entrepreneurial products and services.
Entrepreneurial failure: Lessons learned and how to bounce back.
Exploring the rise of social enterprises in the digital age.
The role of intellectual property protection in entrepreneurial ventures.
Rural entrepreneurship and its contribution to local economies.
Digital entrepreneurship: Exploring new business models in the gig economy.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Thesis Topics

The role of CSR in enhancing corporate reputation.
Exploring the relationship between CSR and customer loyalty.
How CSR practices influence corporate financial performance.
The role of CSR in fostering employee engagement and retention.
Environmental sustainability as a core aspect of CSR initiatives.
The impact of CSR on corporate governance and decision-making processes.
Exploring the influence of CSR on consumer purchasing decisions.
CSR and its role in promoting diversity and inclusion in the workplace.
How businesses can use CSR to address climate change challenges.
CSR reporting and its influence on investor decision-making.
Exploring the role of CSR in creating competitive advantages for companies.
The impact of CSR on brand equity and corporate identity.
The role of CSR in mitigating corporate risks.
Social entrepreneurship and its contribution to CSR initiatives.
How CSR influences corporate partnerships and alliances.
The importance of transparency in CSR reporting.
CSR initiatives in multinational corporations: Challenges and opportunities.
The role of CSR in enhancing corporate ethics and accountability.
Exploring the link between CSR and innovation in business practices.
The influence of CSR on attracting and retaining socially conscious consumers.
How small and medium enterprises (SMEs) approach CSR differently than large corporations.
CSR and sustainable supply chain management: Best practices and case studies.
The role of CSR in addressing global poverty and inequality.
Analyzing the impact of CSR on corporate tax strategies.
The relationship between CSR and government regulations in different countries.
CSR and stakeholder engagement: Building stronger relationships through corporate initiatives.
How businesses integrate CSR into their core operations and strategies.
Exploring the challenges of implementing CSR in emerging markets.
The role of CSR in fostering social innovation and responsible business practices.
Future trends in CSR: Moving toward a more sustainable and socially responsible business world.

Leadership Thesis Topics

The impact of transformational leadership on organizational performance.
Leadership styles and their influence on employee motivation.
The role of emotional intelligence in effective leadership.
Gender differences in leadership styles: A comparative analysis.
The relationship between leadership and organizational culture.
Exploring the role of servant leadership in modern business environments.
The impact of leadership development programs on company success.
Ethical leadership and its influence on corporate governance.
Leadership in times of crisis: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The role of leadership in fostering innovation and creativity.
Exploring the relationship between leadership and employee job satisfaction.
Leadership in family-owned businesses: Challenges and opportunities.
The role of charismatic leadership in influencing organizational change.
Cross-cultural leadership and its influence on global business success.
How leadership communication styles impact organizational performance.
The role of strategic leadership in achieving long-term business goals.
The influence of leadership on organizational change management.
Leadership succession planning in corporations: Best practices and case studies.
The role of leadership in promoting diversity and inclusion in the workplace.
Leadership in high-performance teams: Key factors for success.
How leadership impacts employee retention in competitive industries.
The importance of ethical leadership in building trust within organizations.
Exploring the role of leadership in managing remote and hybrid workforces.
Leadership challenges in fast-growing startups.
Leadership and organizational resilience: Navigating through uncertainty.
The impact of leadership coaching on individual and team performance.
How technology is shaping modern leadership practices.
Women in leadership: Breaking the glass ceiling in business.
The role of leadership in shaping corporate social responsibility initiatives.
Future trends in leadership: Adapting to the challenges of a digital and globalized world.

This comprehensive list of 300 business thesis topics reflects the vast and dynamic nature of the field. From the evolving challenges of agribusiness and the complexities of digital transformation to the growing influence of business analytics, these topics offer valuable insights for students aiming to contribute to business research. Whether you are focusing on leadership strategies or exploring the future of corporate social responsibility, these topics are designed to inspire innovative research and academic excellence. Choose a topic that aligns with your interests and the current landscape of business to ensure a successful and impactful thesis.

The Range of Business Thesis Topics

Business is an ever-evolving field that encompasses a wide array of disciplines, each with its own set of challenges, innovations, and future possibilities. Whether you are interested in leadership, international trade, or digital transformation, business studies offer a broad spectrum of thesis topics that can drive impactful research. This article explores the range of business thesis topics available to students, focusing on current issues, recent trends, and future directions in the field. By understanding these elements, students can select topics that not only align with their interests but also contribute to the growing body of business knowledge.

Current Issues in Business

The business world is constantly facing new challenges that shape how companies operate and compete in the marketplace. These current issues provide fertile ground for academic research and thesis development.

Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility In recent years, businesses have been under increasing pressure to adopt sustainable practices. Issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and corporate responsibility are no longer optional concerns but critical components of long-term success. A growing number of companies are now integrating sustainability into their core business strategies. This shift opens a wide range of thesis topics, including the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in shaping business models, the impact of sustainability on profitability, and the challenges of implementing green technologies in different industries.
Digital Transformation and Disruption Another pressing issue in business is digital transformation, driven by rapid technological advancements. Companies across all sectors are adopting digital technologies to streamline operations, enhance customer experiences, and create new business models. However, this transformation also brings challenges, such as cybersecurity risks, data privacy concerns, and the digital divide. Students can explore topics like the impact of artificial intelligence on business strategies, the role of big data in decision-making, and how businesses are adapting to disruptive technologies like blockchain and IoT (Internet of Things).
Globalization and Trade Barriers While globalization has long been a driving force in business expansion, recent geopolitical shifts have raised concerns about trade barriers, tariffs, and protectionism. Businesses operating on a global scale must navigate these complexities while maintaining competitive advantage. Research opportunities in this area include examining the effects of trade wars on international supply chains, the role of government policies in shaping global business strategies, and how companies are adapting to regulatory changes in different regions.

Recent Trends in Business

In addition to tackling current issues, business research can also focus on recent trends that are transforming the industry landscape. These trends are shaping the future of work, consumption, and corporate governance.

The Rise of Remote Work and Hybrid Models The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically reshaped the way people work, with remote work and hybrid models becoming the new norm for many businesses. This trend has sparked debates about productivity, employee well-being, and the future of office spaces. Thesis topics in this area might explore how businesses can optimize remote work arrangements, the impact of hybrid work models on organizational culture, or the role of technology in facilitating remote team collaboration.
E-Commerce and the Digital Marketplace E-commerce has seen unprecedented growth, accelerated by the pandemic and changing consumer behaviors. Companies are increasingly focusing on digital sales channels, personalized marketing, and the seamless integration of online and offline experiences. Students could explore topics such as the role of data analytics in e-commerce, strategies for improving customer retention in digital marketplaces, or the ethical challenges of data-driven marketing.
Diversity and Inclusion in the Workplace There is a growing recognition of the importance of diversity and inclusion (D&I) in the workplace, not only as a moral imperative but also as a driver of innovation and performance. Companies are investing more in D&I initiatives to foster inclusive environments that reflect the diverse markets they serve. Thesis topics could include examining the impact of diversity on organizational performance, strategies for overcoming unconscious bias in hiring practices, or how leadership shapes inclusive corporate cultures.

Future Directions in Business

Looking ahead, the business world is poised for significant changes driven by technological advancements, shifting societal values, and evolving market demands. These future directions present opportunities for groundbreaking research.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Automation AI and automation are set to revolutionize industries by improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enabling new business models. As AI continues to evolve, its impact on business will deepen, raising questions about job displacement, ethical concerns, and the future of human-AI collaboration. Potential thesis topics include the role of AI in optimizing supply chains, the ethical implications of AI-driven decision-making, and how automation is transforming industries like healthcare, manufacturing, and retail.
The Future of Leadership in a Digital World As businesses become more digital, the nature of leadership is also changing. Leaders must adapt to new technologies, manage remote teams, and foster innovation in an increasingly complex and interconnected world. Research could focus on how leadership styles are evolving in response to digitalization, the role of emotional intelligence in leading digital teams, or how organizations can develop future-ready leaders capable of navigating the challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Sustainability and Circular Economies Sustainability will remain a top priority for businesses in the coming decades, with the concept of circular economies gaining traction. Instead of the traditional linear model of production and consumption, circular economies focus on minimizing waste and maximizing resource efficiency. Students could investigate topics like the role of businesses in advancing circular economies, the challenges of transitioning from linear to circular models, or how sustainability innovations are reshaping industries like fashion, technology, and manufacturing.

Business studies provide a vast array of thesis topics that allow students to explore both contemporary challenges and future opportunities. By focusing on current issues like sustainability and digital transformation, examining recent trends such as remote work and e-commerce, or investigating future directions like AI and circular economies, students can contribute valuable insights to the field of business. The diversity of topics available ensures that students can find a subject that not only aligns with their interests but also addresses key questions in the evolving business landscape. As business continues to evolve, the research conducted by students today will shape the business practices of tomorrow.

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Global Health (GHWG)

Content from global health (ghwg) working group, do you want to write a covid dissertation.

Professor Sophie Harman, a member of our Global Health Working Group, gives some advice about coming up with dissertation topics related to COVID.

Part of the joy and point of writing a dissertation is for students to come up with their own subject and research question. Both students and supervisors know this is often the most painful part of the process (second only to the week before deadline – start early, marathon not a sprint etc!). I know good supervisors can support students writing dissertations in all manner of subjects and this is what makes it so rewarding. However, in a year where we’re all dealing with increased pressure, demands on our time, and managing screen headaches, I thought I’d put my 15 years global health politics experience to good use and make some suggestions/pointers to help you when a student comes to you as says the inevitable: [1]

‘I was thinking of writing my dissertation on COVID-19’

Below are 10 suggested questions with suggested literature and methods, covering institutions, security, race, policy, vaccines, gender, aesthetics, expertise, knowledge. These by no means cover everything and by no means prescribe how I think a dissertation on that topic should be written. If helpful, see them as jump-off points to think about these topics. The only caution I have is make sure all projects are only focused on the start/first 6 months of COVID-19 – we are only at the end of the beginning. This is also a pre-emptive move to stop you getting your students to email me for ideas.

Institutions and global governance

1. Is the WHO capable of preventing and responding to major pandemics?

Literature: WHO, IHR, GOARN, global health security + previous outbreaks (Ebola, pandemic flu, HIV/AIDS)

Methods: Case Studies – look at the tools/instruments e.g. IHR, GOARN, Regional offices etc

2. Why did states pursue different responses to the COVID-19 outbreak?

Literature: Global health security, state compliance in IR, international law and international organisations

Methods: Pick two contrasting case studies e.g. England/Scotland, Canada/US, Germany/UK, Sweden/Denmark and then look at different levels of policy and decision making per chapter – Global, National, Regional/local and rationales behind decisions from – expert evidence, speeches, policy decisions, policy timelines

3. How can we understand the gender dimensions of COVID-19?

Literature: Gender and global health, Feminist IPE, Black Feminism, WPS (if looking at violence)

Methods: Explore 1 – 3 key themes from the literature – Care and domestic burden, Health Care Workers, Domestic violence in depth. Depending on networks and contacts, could run focus groups (ethics! And definitely NOT if doing violence), or analyse survey data – lots of surveys done on this and the raw data is always made available if have the skills to play with it.

Political economy

4. Are states the main barrier to vaccine equity?

Literature: Vaccine access and nationalism, access to treatment, IPE of health and trade, pharmaceutical companies, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Methods: Look at the different stages of vaccine development for 2/3 trials and consider the role of States (where putting money, public statements, any actions e.g. email hacks), Researchers (where get money from, how collaborating, knowledge sharing), Institutions (CEPI, GAVI, WHO), and the Private Sector (pharma and foundations – who’s investing, what is their return – and private security companies – who protects the commodity?). Think: interests, investment, barriers/opportunities.

Security and foreign policy

5. Were state security strategies prepared for major pandemics prior to COVID-19? If not, why not?

Literature: Global health security, securitisation and desecuritisation of health

Methods: 2 – 3 state case studies or 1 in detail, think about Strategy, Training/Preparedness, Actors. Content analysis of security strategies and defence planning and budget allocations, speeches, training, simulations etc.

6. What is the role of images in responding to outbreaks?

Literature: Aesthetics and IR, behaviour change communication and images in public health

Methods: 3 case studies on different types of images in COVID-19, e.g. 1. Global public health messaging; 2. National public health messaging; 3. Community Expression – OR pick one of these options and explore in depth.

Race and racism

7. Could the racial inequalities of COVID-19 been foreseen and prevented?

Literature: Racism and global health, racism and domestic health systems, Black Feminism, Critical Trans Politics

Method: Option 1 – look maternal health as a proxy in three case study countries e.g. Brazil, US, UK; Option 2 – pick one country and look at three health issues prior to COVID-19 e.g. Maternal Health, Diabetes, Heart Disease.

Knowledge, discourse, and experts

8. Is COVID-19 the biggest global pandemic of a generation?

Literature: Postcolonial/decolonial theory, poststructuralism, Politics of HIV/AIDS, pandemic flu

Method: Discourse analysis around ‘once in a lifetime rhetoric’ – who says it, when, and why; contrast with discourse around COVID-19 from countries with previous outbreaks e.g. Sierra Leone, DRC, China, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil (you’ll need to be selective as can’t measure discourse from all states! Think through why you make your choices here and how they relate to each other) OR contrast COVID-19 with a previous pandemic, e.g. HIV/AIDS

9. What knowledge counts in COVID-19?

Literature: Postcolonial/decolonial theory, post-structuralism, IR and Global Health, politics of experts

Methods: Review lessons learned from previous outbreaks (there are lots of source material on this after Ebola and SARS for example) and how they led to changes/what learned for COVID-19; Stakeholder mapping and/or network analysis – Who are the experts? Look at backgrounds, types of knowledge and expertise, did they work on the Ebola response/HIV/AIDS in the early 2000s for example?; Case Study – UK/US – where have high concentration of public health experts and institutions, export knowledge to low and middle income countries, evidence of importing knowledge from these countries, especially given the experience?

UK/State responses

10. How can we understand/explain the first 6 months of the US/UK/Sweden/Australia/South Africa/China/Brazil/you choose! response to COVID-19?

WARNING! This is the question that could descend into a polemic so approach with absolute caution. I would strongly advise against, but have included to give a clearer steer.

The key with this question is to remember you are not submitting a public health or epidemiology dissertation, so bear in mind you probably don’t have the skills and knowledge to assess what was a good/bad public health decision (other than obvious ones such as PPE stocks for example). What you do have the skills to do is to look at the politics as to why a decision was taken and how it was taken – investigate what the different recommendations/guidance suggested, who followed/ignored/subverted it and what outcomes this produced.

Literature: health policy, public policy, state compliance IR

Methods: 1. Global – map what global advice there was and how did the state follow (or not) in preparedness and response and what was the rationale for doing so – political circumstances at the time, stated rationale for decision, who was making decision; 2. National – key public health decisions, commodities, social-economic consequences – how were these planned for/overlooked and why. To look at these two levels may require mixed methods of global and national policy timelines, stakeholder analysis, content analysis of speeches and recommendations, mapping changes to data presentation and access.

[1] For the first two years of my career I supervised countless projects loosely based around ‘Is the War in Iraq illegal?’ I’m hoping some of the variety here will stop two years of ‘Is the UK government’s respond to COVID-19 a national scandal?’ or ‘Is the WHO fit for purpose?’ – two great topics, but tiresome after a bit.

Reproduced with kind permission from Global Politics Unbound at QMU.

Photo by iMattSmart on Unsplash

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Home > USC Columbia > HONORS_COLLEGE > SENIOR_THESES > 379

Senior Theses

A scenario-based analysis on the impact of covid-19 on the public sector, private sector, and international business.

Charles Nastopoulos , University of South Carolina - Columbia Follow

Date of Award

Spring 2020

Degree Type

Moore School of Business

Director of Thesis

Dr. Daniel Ostergaard

First Reader

Mr. William Harrison

Second Reader

Drawing on four years of academic education received from the #1 International Business Program at the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina Honors College, this is a comprehensive and forward-thinking strategic thought piece addressing the international business world and its potential post-pandemic reality. This thesis will answer the overarching question: What are the short- and long-term impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on international business?

Recommended Citation

Nastopoulos, Charles, "A Scenario-Based Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Public Sector, Private Sector, and International Business" (2020). Senior Theses . 379. https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/senior_theses/379

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Library Dissertation Showcase

Covid-19 impact, crisis management, and recovery: uk event professionals’ perspectives.

Despoina Keramari
Events Management
Year of Publication:
MSc Event Management

The ongoing crisis of Covid-19 has disrupted social and economic activities globally with the industries of tourism, leisure, and hospitality being severely harmed, and many businesses struggling to survive. The events industry, as an integral part of tourism, leisure, hospitality, arts and culture, but also the corporate world, has been decimated as strict pandemic mitigation measures contrast the essential conditions of operation of the sector, which has lost its core product: the live experience. For this reason, the aim of this dissertation is to explore how the events industry is affected across its value chain, how professionals have managed the crisis and business continuity during Covid-19, as well as how they are preparing for the recovery of the sector and reimagining the new normal post-Covid-19. The dissertation focuses on the case study area of the United Kingdom, where event professionals from different segments of the events industry’s value chain were interviewed for the collection of primary data. The qualitative methodology followed allowed to capture the experientiality of the participants during the crisis and gain input related to the crisis impact on events, CM strategies, and considerations for the new reality when live events return. The study proves that the crisis has disrupted the industry as a whole, where digital and economic inequalities are exposed, and for some companies, the crisis has turned into a complete disaster. The return of live events is ambiguous related to time and shape, but important emphasis should be given on content, health and safety, and the changing consumer behaviour of attendees, while events will shrink, and the virtual element constitutes a new trend. Moreover, the industry notes fragmentation in the crisis management effort which challenges its recovery, and companies lack strategizing and business continuity plans alongside governmental support. In this way, the crisis has exposed problematic elements of the industry, which are identified in this study, and the industry of the future is reimagined as more united, professional, recognised by authorities, and more resilient.

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Business Dissertation Topics

2020 was a year of drastic change, with many businesses shut down by the pandemic. However 2021-22 onwards promises rapid economic growth, as business activity sharply expands. So, to help you out we’ve provided a selection of free and original business dissertation topics, suitable for both Master’s and Bachelor’s degree dissertations. These topics cover a large range of subjects within the business discipline, so you are sure to find one suited to your own interests. Each of these topics will allow you to produce an original and ambitious dissertation that will contribute to the existing knowledge of your subject area. So, if you’ve been searching far and wide for a great business dissertation topic, look no further!

Global Politics and Global Business Dissertation Topics

Global strategy for business dissertation topics, technology and innovation management business dissertation topics, corporate social responsibility business dissertation topics, international human resource management dissertation topics, management of international change dissertation topics, leadership and innovation business dissertation topics, globalisation and strategy business dissertation topics.

This is one of the most important aspects of international business as it examines the connection between global politics and global business. It looks at some of the most important factors, institutions, and processes that affect international business and studies the political environment of business, which has been particularly volatile over the last five years.

Evaluating the performance of global business teams within multinational corporations: the test of an intervening process model.
How does Corporate Governance affect internationalisation, globalisation and the performance of firms?
What sorts of themes and images might create trans-cultural resonance and dissonance within an international classroom comprised of diverse nationalities and cultural backgrounds?
Can production for global markets help business groups to mobilise collectively? Under what conditions does globalisation enable the private sector to develop independent organisational bases and create effective relationships with the state?
How different patterns of business-government relations affect processes of industrial upgrading: A case study of emerging economies.
How do multinational organisations tackle the growing complexity of managing themselves in light of the rise to significant power of non-governmental organisations?
A look at the effect that Brexit is likely to have on British businesses, especially the average small and medium enterprise (SME).
How will Brexit impact on the regulatory burden of large business and corporations in the United Kingdom and Europe?
Business-Government relations within a contingency theory framework: strategy, structure, fit, and performance.
What is the meaning and process of globalisation and how does it impact the way in which business teams work together?
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, is globalisation still going to be a key market driver?
Global strategy and local implementation: Examining how multinational corporations apply Corporate Governance in China.
How will firms investing in China manage the political undercurrents, as talk increases of a new Cold War between the West and China?
What factors affect multinational corporations’ choice of corporate political strategy? Examining the influence of perceived regulatory pressure on company’s political strategies.
Using a legitimacy perspective to examine how firms entering the Chinese market manage political risk.
A critical examination of the potential implications of Brexit for UK firms’ EU-based supply chain.
Brexit and foreign direct investment into the UK: An examination of the potential impact on new venture start-ups in the UK.

Global business strategy focuses on understanding the main strategic issues that organisations face when they operate as a global business. Specifically, the issues relate to three areas: understanding global strategic analysis, formulating a global strategy, and developing sources of competitive advantage in a given company.

What are the risks and benefits of an International Joint Venture?
How should a business strategy be developed to expand a business in an international market?
A comparative study of Mergers and Acquisitions within the Aviation sector: Case study of Qatar Airways’ joint venture with the International Airlines Group.
A research on the exit strategy of foreign venture capital investment in international private business sector.
What are the business strategies and key success factors of Financial Holding Companies in the international environment?
How does an organisation benefit from an effective vendor management strategy?
Why are some vendor relationships more successful than others?
Developing an effective framework for knowledge sharing and utilisation in global project teams.
Can entrepreneurship be utilised as an effective management strategy within a business unit?
What effects will the consumers’ increasing use of the online channel to fashion shopping have on the strategies used by UK clothing retailers?
An assessment of sustainable competitive advantage within the UK DIY multiple market sector.
Develop your own definition of logistics, that you think reflects how logistics is evolving and explain why you think it is appropriate for today and the next decade.
A study of the problems of managing international collaboration in the military aero-engine business.
New possibilities in logistics and supply chain management provided by Big Data: examining the birth and growth of supply chain analytics.
Designing a closed-loop supply chain for improving sustainability of global business practices.
Developing a strategy for winning in the Indian market: A case study of Suzuki Motor Corporation.

These topics consider the ways in which business firms develop and implement technology as a strategy and integrate technological and innovative capabilities in support of their business operations. These topics mainly investigate how technology has revolutionised the business environment causing disruption, new opportunities and challenges for firms to deal with.

A study of how business operations have improved as a result of innovation: Are they converging towards one universal approach?
What are the market challenges experienced by new UK mobile telecommunication companies?
How will 5G technology impact on the growth of digital consumer markets in the UK?
How does online branding provide competitive advantage in the digital era: a study of the consumer electronics industry?
A study into how ICT integration has transformed procurement of goods and services.
Building virtual dominions – A comparative study of mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances in e-commerce: case studies of Amazon.com and eBay.
What are the technological factors surrounding the relationship between organisational growth and performance?
A study into the role of online marketing in creating global supply chain networks.
A study into how organisations suffer the negative effects of modern day technology.
What are the main factors impacting on the success of online branding for corporations?
Assessing the role of social media in global branding: cases of Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
Exploring the impact of technology on CRM operations within call centres in the UK and analyse the factors that affect the well-being of the employee?
A study into the opportunities of implementing an e-HR system: Case of British Energy.
A study into how companies influence technology and innovation within suppliers: Case of Apple.
Assessing technology diffusion models among online shoppers in the UK.
Business process reengineering and the challenges facing airlines, a critical study of the factors influencing Saudi Airlines’ BPR initiatives.
What are the barriers to successful/profitable e-commerce deployment in government organisations?
Comparing and contrasting government e-commerce portals with private ones such as eBay and Amazon: which offers the better user experience and business outcomes?
How has integration of technology into HR improved organisational efficiency?
What is the impact of technology on FMCG industry towards meeting consumer demands in the UK market?
Assessing the role of innovation towards creation of new opportunities for SMEs in the UK.
What determinant factors influence integration of technology in the Supply Chain Management (SCM) sector.

Governments, activists and the media have become adept at holding companies to account for the social consequences of their actions. In response, corporate social responsibility has emerged as an inescapable priority for business leaders in every country. The fact is many prevailing approaches to CSR are quite disconnected from strategy. Business should treat CSR as something central to their strategy and hence contribute as a core competence for many organisations. These topics evaluate how business can utilise CSR practices to enhance opportunities for organisational success.

How does Corporate Social Responsibility impact on customer loyalty?
What is the role of staff training in developing and executing CSR skills?
What are the key strategic decisions facing companies in order to improve their performance in Corporate Social Responsibility?
Does Corporate Social Responsibility enhance corporate reputation? A case study of Tesco.
What are the challenges facing ethical businesses in the UK for moving to the mainstream?
How can businesses gain advantage from adopting CSR practices with respect to climate change?
A study into the impact of green and lean practices on organisational performance.
How have environmental policies transformed CSR practices within organisations: Case of BAT.
What are the effects of CSR on sustainability: Case of Coca Cola.
How will multinational organisations deal with the growing emphasis on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in large markets like Germany and India?
To what extent will CSR be sacrificed for greater economic growth in the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic?
How can firms successfully make Corporate Social Responsibility operable in the modern corporate environment?
Is there a relationship between diversity and Corporate Social Responsibility, what is its contribution to organisational performance?
What is the impact of CSR on brand equity: Case study of Toyota UK?
How does CSR impact on organisational performance?
CSR and societal expectations: A case study of Unilever.

International Human Resource Management refers to activities that are designed to support organisations in managing human resources at an international level so that competitive advantage can be maintained at both the national and international level. The subject area includes understanding of culture factors, both in terms of beliefs and attitudes of international employees and in relation to international employment legislation. Studying the area provides insights into the way that corporate HR functions can contribute to international business strategy and build functional knowledge of the main developments in the management of expatriates and other forms of international management. Changing perspectives are crucial as more and more organisations operate on a global basis and have head offices in a home country and operational sites in host nations. Functionally this can involve expatriates but increasingly includes high usage of virtual technology to create links between home and host country operational sites. The following topics are an indication of key areas of current interest in the field.

What are the benefits and challenges of inter-cultural team working in virtual environments and how these teams influence competitive advantage.
Virtual working environments became something of a norm during the pandemic. Will this apply to home countries of international corporations as well?
What are the bases of employee commitment in terms of affective, normative and calculative commitment in a global multi-national?
What are the effects of organisational transition on employee commitment in large multinational companies?
How do mergers impact on employee motivation and commitment, and how can any fallout be managed?
How can cultural differences in international collaborative projects be managed?
Can job-swaps between international workers improve inter-cultural working in multi-national organisations?
What is the relationship between the three components of commitment to organisational change and the perceived success of an organisational change?
What effect will the UK’s decision to leave the EU have on economic migrants, and how can this be managed by IHRM practices and polices?
How will Brexit impact on British workers in the EU, and to what extent can this be managed by IHRM practices and policies?
How does one manage employee commitment in the not-for-profit sector across different national cultures?
Using models of Strategic Human Resource Management assess and appraise how BAE Systems is achieving strategy through effective people management practices.
What are the main factors that affect employee retention at international call centres?
What are the most effective practices for working a unique Human Resource policy across multiple divisions of large diversified companies?
A study of the constantly changing global business environment and how effective human resource planning enables organisations to achieve their strategic objectives.
What effect does the Brexit decision and subsequent negotiations have on the management of EU operational sites by UK based companies?
What is the role and value of effective IHRM strategic thinking to effective negotiation of joint ventures between the UK and BRIC countries?
Can IHRM be effective in delivering culturally appropriate work-life balance and flexible working patterns for multi-national firms?

Change, at the organisational level is vital for continued innovation and retention of competitive advantage. Therefore, understanding the different aspects of this topic is vital in creating awareness of existing views and practices for implementing and managing successful change, particularly at the international level. This topic area is therefore focused on the what, why and how involving managing change in contemporary organisations and social systems in general, and how they may impact on the effectiveness of change. In particular, it examines the issues and dilemmas facing those managing change, as well as the skills required for successful adaptation and evolution, especially in an international context.

What internal and external factors have the greatest impact on employees in cross-national mergers and acquisitions?
Managing change across multi-cultural teams through technology and virtual project management: The impact of social understanding and use of digital media.
What are the biggest changes in home working practises going to be following Coronavirus, and what impact will they have on employee retention?
Managing change: Developing a framework that links intended strategies and unanticipated outcomes.
Employee adjustment during organisational change: The role of organisational level and occupation.
How can employee motivation levels be sustained during organizational restructuring?
Success of a Product Lifecycle Management Implementation – an investigation into the electronics manufacturing industry.
How power works through managing emotion in organisational change: emotion management as power.
How can the measurement of levels of work stress in individuals employed in an organisation undergoing change benefit it?
Encouraging gender equality across international firms – what role can change management approaches take in supporting increased female representation in traditionally masculine firms?
Managing change in Asian business – A comparison between Chinese-educated and English-educated Chinese entrepreneurs in Singapore.
What is the impact of feedback during organisational culture change: a case study of a financial firm?
Stakeholder Communication and Transformational Change: A case study in the use of a proprietary change management system.
What effect is there on levels of resistance and conflict when organisational change is lead by a servant or spiritual leader?
How social media can facilitate acceptance of change in international organisations.
Soft skills are not enough: Why change management approaches also need strong project management planning to be successful.
What are the key project management skills needed to execute a major change in the working culture of an organization?

Innovation has become a primary force driving the growth, performance, and valuation of companies. However, sometimes there is a wide gap between the aspirations of executives to innovate and their ability to execute. Many companies make the mistake of trying to spur innovation by turning to unreliable best practices, and to organisational structures and processes. Moreover, executives who focus on stimulating and supporting innovation by their employees can promote and sustain it with the current talent and resources more effectively than they could by using other incentives. This area focuses on innovation at the individual level and at the group level within organisations.

What are the effects of team innovation and leadership clarity in organisations? A health care case study.
Does socio-cultural context moderate the relationship of leadership with top-management influence on innovation?
What are the effects of leadership style and team process on performance and innovation in functionally heterogeneous teams?
An exploratory study of leadership, organisational culture and organisational innovativeness in a sample of non-profit organisations.
Is there a difference in leadership style between profit and non-organisations, and what are the reasons for this?
How do business leaders see their role in enabling innovation in large organisations?
Transformation or transactional? The role of leadership in supporting individual-level creativity within organisations.
How exactly do we put leadership and innovation together? How does a company lead in a way that generates innovation?
What are the key factors required for a creative organisation? How are barriers to implementing these factors overcome?
Organising for team creativity: Creating an organisational system for harvesting ideas for leadership and innovation.
What is the nature and role of leadership in three ideal types of public management innovation: politically-led, organisational turnarounds and bottom-up innovations?
How is leadership different in the engineering function? An assessment of Airbus UK?
What are the behavioural and personality correlations of transactional and transformational leadership?
What is the relationship between leadership style and creativity? Systematically reviewing the literature.
From managing to enabling innovation: Leaders’ facilitating innovation through cultural change.
The role of leaders in balancing creativity and standardisation in the firm.

Globalisation is a complex trend, encompassing many forces and many effects. Globalisation has revolutionised the global market as Multinational Enterprises renew their strategies to attain competitive edge. These topics evaluate different strategies adopted by business firms to uniquely position themselves in the global market.

The analysis of suitability and applicability of Porter’s Generic Strategies in the light of emerging business trends and an unpredictable operating environment post-pandemic.
Does globalisation have a future in the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic?
What is the significance of ICT integration as a business strategy?
How globalisation has broken trade barriers and its impact on trade tariffs: the case of BRIC countries.
What current strategies are in place for businesses to meet dynamic consumer demands?
To what extent is consumer demand shaped by corporate innovation? A comparative study of Apple and Samsung.
Assessing the impact of globalisation on UK businesses operating on both international and local levels.
Does Brexit signal a rollback in globalisation in the UK and Europe?
An examination of empowerment, conflict and corporate vision as factors in developing global business strategies for multinational firms.
What are the transformational strategies adopted by companies in the globalisation era?
How have countries changed their trade policies in the face of new global market challenges?
A study into the FDI strategies used by UK multinational companies: case study of Vodafone.
Investigating the role of strategic alliances in creating global supply chain networks.
Assessing the impact of internationalisation strategies on multinational corporations: case study Tullow Oil.

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Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection

Areas of academic research with the impact of COVID-19

Abid haleem.

a Department of Mechanical Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India

Mohd Javaid

Raju vaishya.

b Department of Orthopaedics, Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, Sarita Vihar, Mathura Road, 110076 New Delhi, India

S.G. Deshmukh

c Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India

Coronavirus (COVID-19) endemic is growing exponentially in the whole world. Researchers, technologists, doctors and other healthcare workers are working day and night on the development of vaccine and medicinesto control and treat this virus. SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus responsible for causing COVID-19 disease, which is highly infectious and lethal.With exponentially increasing infections, proportionate fatalities are being reported both from developed and under developed countries. As of today, more than one million people across the world have been reported infected with this virus, and more than 65,000 people have died of this disease. Hence, there is an urgent requirement for conducting academic research on several aspects of this highly contagious disease, to find effective means of containment and treatment of the disease, for now, and in future. We have identified some opportunities for academic research related to COVID-19 and have also provided suggestions to contain, prevent and treat this viral infection.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has significantly affected the health, economy, and socio-economic fabric of the global society. The costs involved in the containment and treatment of this infectious disease are exorbitantly high, which even the wealthiestand developed countries are finding it difficult to sustain. COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the crude, stock market, gold and metals and almost all areas of the global market [ 1 ]. Large research laboratories and corporate houses are working with a high speed to develop medicines and vaccines for the prevention and treatment of this dreaded disease. To deal with these current health management challenges, we need a comprehensive understanding of the effect on the health system, global business, and culture. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 11th March 2020 [ 2 ]. COVID-19 has become an international emergency in a short period and will have long-lasting effects. There is an urgent need to identify and study the areas of academic research which will be impacted by COVID-19 [ 3 ].

1. Research objectives

This manuscript highlights potential areas of academic research which are likely to be impacted by COVID-19. The main objectives of this paper are to provide awareness and to identify the research areas related to COVID-19. It may help improve the understanding of this disease and describe the psychological impacts of this pandemic and how these could change as the disease spreads.

2. Current limitations and gaps in the knowledge of Coronavirus and its effects

It appears the Coronavirus is zoonotic and originated in China. Scientists have not yet been able to identify the animal source of the infectious agent and have not determined whether a persistent animal reservoir of the infectious agent exists. It is also unclear whether SARS, like influenza, is a seasonal disease that would have receded on its own. It remains to be seen whether it will reemerge on a seasonal basis, and if so, how virulent future manifestations would be. The answers to these questions would undoubtedly advance the world's ability to predict and prepare for a resurgence of COVID-19.

3. Significant research areas on COVID-19

COVID-19 has disrupted the economies and the lives of individuals around the world. There are many areas of research needed regarding COVID-19 [ [4] , [5] , [6] ]. Table 1 identifies significant research areas which be profoundly impacted by this pandemic. We need to undertake extensive research on these areas.

Major research areas which will be impacted by COVID-19.

S. No	Areas	Description
1	Vaccine Development
2	Medication/Therapy
3	Health Care and equipment
4	Social
5	Economic
6	Environmental
7	Sustainability
8	Psychiatric
9	The emergence of a new workplace and work culture
10	Information Technology revolution
11	Online awareness workshop and capacity building
12	Biological warfare
13	Psychological issues
14	Industry 4.0
15	Importance of home life
16	Global trade, commerce
17	Medical Supply chains
18	Public health and Policy

Extensive research is required for the development of a vaccine for the prevention of Coronavirus infection. There is an urgent need for early production and manufacturing of the essential items like personal protective equipment, medicines, and ventilators to combat this pandemic. All measures to keep a social distancing by the public must be ensured by avoiding social-cultural and religious programs and festivals etc. during this pandemic. Along with these, healthcare measures to deal with COVID-19 pandemic, there is also an imminent requirement for theresearch to improvethe global economy, which has taken a tremendous beating and is unlikely to recover in the near future [ 7 , 8 ].

4. Conclusion

COVID-19 pandemic is a public health emergency of international concern.It has posed new challenges to the global research community. With the help of academic research, there is a need for a better understanding of the COVID-19 and its socio-economic ramifications on society. The future research will be multi-disciplinary and trans-national.We see a new wave of research in the biological and the medical sciences for the well-being of the civilization.

Declaration of competing interest

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Creating a Post-Covid Business Plan

Dev Patnaik,
Michelle Loret de Mola,
Brady Bates

Organizations need to understand how the pandemic is changing behaviors and habits.

To plan for a post-pandemic world, businesses must understand what your stakeholders’ behaviors will look like after the pandemic. Some behaviors will return to their pre-crisis state; others will be transformed; and others will disappear entirely. Drawing on research into habit formation, technology adoption and behavioral economics, the authors offer a framework to help companies make reasonable predictions on what happens next.

Right now, every company in the world is facing the same question: What’s going to happen when the pandemic is over? Grocery stores and consumer packaged goods manufacturers have experienced an unexpected boost in sales: Will that growth sustain? Hotels and airlines have experienced unprecedented drops in demand: Will their business ever come back? Movie studios, video game producers, and theaters need to envision how the pandemic will permanently affect entertainment habits. When the pandemic is over, many companies will find that their business model has been disrupted in fundamental ways.

Dev Patnaik is the CEO of Jump Associates . Dev is a frequent keynote speaker at major forums, and his writing has appeared in BusinessWeek , Forbes , Fast Company , and many others. He is the author of the book Wired to Care , named one of the best books of the year by both Fast Company and BusinessWeek . Malcolm Gladwell called Wired to Care “just what we need for the lean years ahead.” When not at Jump, Dev is an adjunct professor at Stanford University, where he teaches a course called Needfinding. In the class, students draw upon methods from anthropology, design, and business strategy to discover insights about people and create new products and services.
Michelle Loret de Mola is a director of strategy at Jump Associates . Michelle is an expert at bringing together clear strategic direction and compelling experiences to drive change, and she advises future-focused leaders across industries. She has worked with a major financial institution to define the future of finance, partnered with a Fortune 500 consumer goods company to develop a sustainability strategy, and helped a leading retailer define its five-year marketing strategy. If you want to learn more about Jump and what we’re doing to help companies figure out what’s next, please connect with us.
Brady Bates brings together rigorous bottom-line focus and bold creativity to help his clients thrive in uncertain times. Brady helped architect America’s fastest growing loyalty program for a Fortune 50 retailer, supported the U.S. government in establishing innovation practices for farmers across the country, and envisioned the future of finance for a $50 billion banking institution. Prior to Jump, Brady was an analyst in Deloitte’s Strategy & Operations practice, where he worked with leading health care and financial services clients. In addition to business administration, Brady studied painting and artistic expression, spending time to hone his skills in Perugia, Italy.

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COVID-19: Implications for business in 2020

You’ve reached an archival page. please see our newest perspectives about the economic and business impact of coronavirus and how to prepare for a postpandemic world., covid-19 and the great reset: briefing note #36, december 16, 2020, vaccines are here. what can stakeholders do to ensure quick and effective distribution and boost public confidence in vaccination efforts.

The first COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized for use and dissemination has begun in several countries, marking a major turning point in the pandemic and bringing fresh optimism for a next normal in the new year. These vaccines were developed four times faster than any other in history, but they will also require a rollout four times greater, amounting to the largest simultaneous global public-health initiative ever undertaken . Governments and healthcare professionals will need to collaborate on an incredible scale to allot and deliver vaccine doses and to address challenges from storage and transport to administration and data tracking. Multiple vaccines and changing supply volumes will also necessitate an evolving delivery model.

Stakeholders face another hurdle to widespread vaccine adoption: some consumers remain skeptical of COVID-19 immunization . To reach herd immunity, our analysis suggests adoption ranges would need to be greater than those of vaccines for the flu and other diseases. The vast majority of US consumers surveyed believe the vaccine is important to facilitate a return to life as it was, but nearly half are “cautious adopters,” preferring to defer vaccination for up to three months to a year, after more data is available. To boost acceptance, healthcare leaders will need to dynamically engage consumers through information campaigns using trusted, influential sources.

New research from the McKinsey Global Institute points to another area of hope in the face of the current crisis: a renewed social contract . Governments across 22 countries have upped their fiscal spending as a percentage of GDP by around 20 percent compared with last year, and the private sector has made efforts to offer employee protections. Combined, these interventions have provided an economic buffer and some initiatives have the potential to translate into long-term solutions to protect individuals from the immediate effects of future crises.

The COVID-19 pandemic is unleashing a new era of change for businesses as well. Companies have seen the effects of high-consequence, low-likelihood risks firsthand. While corporate decision makers cannot plan for every potential risk, we examined some ways they can prepare for extraordinary risks , determine which protections are worth the investment, and position themselves for better resiliency. As CEOs continue to develop their COVID-Exit strategies , we analyzed how two companies have found a successful COVID-Exit path with transformations that balance portfolio moves and performance improvements.

Our research shows that companies are already focusing on two areas in particular. A new global survey of more than 800 executives reveals that companies are prioritizing business building for organic growth, launching new businesses at an accelerated rate and, in turn, growing faster. The strongest companies are also reinventing themselves through next-normal operating models , capitalizing on this malleable moment and the resulting spread of agile processes, nimbler ways of working, and increased speed and productivity.

This week, we took a close look at the banking sector, starting with our 2020 update to McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review . We also highlighted developments in two countries: how banks can provide a credit lifeline to small and medium-size enterprises in South Africa and steps Nigeria’s banking sector can take to thrive amid the crisis.

Our industry experts explored the future of fashion , how the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted mobility and affected demand for in vitro diagnostics , and how Australia’s COVID-19 response can inform decision makers around the world. Global economist Dambisa Moyo also provided insights on models for growth, stakeholder capitalism, and how to drive enduring change amid uncertainty.

Finally, we launched our new Author Talks series, featuring interviews with noted management thinker and professor Roger Martin on the high price of efficiency and McKinsey Global Institute editorial director Peter Gumbel on searching for identity.

Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The first four installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true transformation, a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization, and a 157-page report on the challenge of climate change—are available now. The final installment is coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 articles related to the coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

This briefing note was edited by Dana Sand, an assistant managing editor in the Atlanta office.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #35, December 9, 2020

After a tumultuous year for racial justice, companies are pledging change. mckinsey announces one of our biggest commitments: the institute for black economic mobility..

The year 2020 has been one of losses —around the world, and in the United States in particular. More than 46,000 Black Americans have died from COVID-19—twice as many, proportionally, as white Americans. This year also saw the murders of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and many other Black Americans. The events of this year are emblematic of long-standing inequities and are rooted in a long history of systemic discrimination. The typical Black American family has eight times less wealth than a white American family. The racial wealth gap has profound consequences, for families and the US economy, which misses out on between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in GDP output each year.

To make good on these profound inequities, or at least make a start, nearly one-third of Fortune 1000 companies made a public statement on racial equity in recent months, and followed it up with an internal or external commitment. Of those, about 57 percent publicly announced the amount they were committing to racial equity initiatives, pledging a total of $66 billion.

This week, we published new research on five attributes of successful coalitions —ideas that can help make sure that the $66 billion pledged achieves maximum impact. We’re also proud to announce the McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility , which will research the issues, convene stakeholders, and work to convert research findings into real-world impact. This is a critical moment. Corporate America is more focused on the issue of racial justice than it ever has been. It is imperative to ensure that the unprecedented commitment of resources and focus toward racial equity is channeled effectively, proves impactful, delivers a high return on investment for society, and brings about real progress for individuals and communities.

Women and children have also suffered immensely from the global pandemic. The latest edition of the McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty distills our gender research to date in an easy-to-read five-minute summary, and provides links for those who want to learn more. One reason women are more affected: two million women (many of them mothers of young children) are thinking about leaving the workforce, or have already left. And our new research on learning loss during the COVID-19 pandemic finds that students have lost a lot of ground. We offer insights to help educators curb losses and accelerate learning.

In two new podcasts, McKinsey experts spoke with our editors about grief, loss, and burnout at work—and about America’s behavioral health crisis . We also published insights from two leading scholars about the coming revolution in mental health in the workplace.

Also this week, our industry researchers focused on Europe, looking at three topics: decarbonization in various EU industries; new consumer behaviors in grocery shopping ; and the impact of the second lockdown on automotive retail . We also outlined steps to help US state governments manage a growing budget crisis.

Finally, we asked a diverse range of our Gen Z consultants (born after 1996) from around the globe to tell us which of the more than 1,000 articles we published in 2020 struck a chord with them. Here’s what they said .

Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The first three installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true transformation, and a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization—are available now. Two more are coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

This briefing note was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #34, December 2, 2020

Pandemic fatigue is bad and getting worse. here’s practical advice for leaders to help people reconnect with their jobs, their colleagues, and their purpose..

“I’m not sure how much longer I can keep going like this.” “I’m completely burned out.” Pandemic fatigue is here, and while almost everybody is feeling it, and more people are talking about it, no one knows exactly what to do about it. Our new research explains principles and sets out practical steps to get through a potentially prolonged period of disillusionment, grief, and exhaustion. Here’s a sampling of the tips on offer:

Leaders need to set and enforce work boundaries ; violating these is one of the biggest energy drains.
They can help people see this time as a quest toward something new , not as a restitution of bygone days, and not as chaos to be muddled through.
Managers can encourage employees to take a zero-based approach to meetings, to help them choose which ones to attend.
And they can prioritize the work people do. Now is the time for organizations to finally tackle busyness and focus on the work that matters most. One global organization put a halt to new initiatives for a period of two months to allow for recovery, while another now examines which initiatives to “sunset” and how to intentionally limit the amount of work in progress.

In a companion piece, McKinsey experts spoke with Admiral John Richardson, former US chief of naval operations, about how to lead during long-term crises marked by deep uncertainty. Many of the naval analogies he shared translate well to civilian organizations. Captains rely on the “chief of the boat” to take the pulse of the crew and represent their needs. That’s one way the captain avoids being the ship’s “single point of safety.” If the captain is indispensable, he or she is also overstretched and will inevitably make a mistake. And “recovery is critical to mission effectiveness.” Organizations need structures that protect time off and teams that make it possible for even their busiest members to take extended time off.

Case counts are rising rapidly in many countries, straining hospital systems. Our new research assesses how much slack is left in the system. The answer is not encouraging. In many US localities, for example, COVID-19 beds will be full by December 7, based on current trends. We also offer ideas for hospital systems on how to use their resources to the utmost.

Few industries have been as deeply affected by the pandemic as fashion and retail. This week we published The State of Fashion 2021 , our annual report on the industry, issued jointly with the Business of Fashion. Unsurprisingly, we estimate that revenues in 2020 will likely fall by 27 to 30 percent from the year before. Many global fashion companies may be at risk, and the pain extends to workers in low-cost sourcing and manufacturing hubs. But our research also finds that growth should resume in 2021.

This week, our industry researchers also looked at the factors spurring healthtech investment , considered the future of European payments , reviewed the potential for privately owned autonomous vehicles , and detailed ten priorities for governmental resilience .

Finally, our climate experts trained their sights on India , a country that faces a rapidly degrading physical environment. India could become one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that, in extremis, exceed the survivability limit for healthy people. More generally, heat and humidity will reduce labor productivity and hurt growth in an economy that relies substantially on outdoor work.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #33, November 25, 2020

What to make of the promising news on covid-19 vaccines and new ceo insights on leading through the pandemic: here’s this week’s update..

The world has cheered recent announcements about COVID-19-vaccine candidates. Two are showing higher efficacy rates than many dared hope for. Higher efficacy provides greater benefit to any vaccinated individual and may help encourage uptake among some segments of the population. It also reduces the fraction of the population required to reach herd immunity.

While that’s highly positive news, McKinsey research also finds that the new vaccines are likely to accelerate only slightly the timetable to the end of the pandemic. In the United States, normalcy is not likely until the second quarter of 2021, and herd immunity is not likely until the third quarter. In other words, the pandemic will not be vanquished soon, and businesses will continue to be challenged. See our latest briefing materials —129 pages to guide leaders through the difficulties of the next few months.

Leaders can also take inspiration and new ideas from their peers. This week, McKinsey experts spoke with five top executives to learn more about how they are leading through the pandemic. Amrita Ahuja, CFO of Square, spoke about the future of payments , including the potential for a cashless society and frictionless exchanges made possible by machine learning and even cryptocurrency. Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, CEO of Ayala Corporation, talked about how the Philippines’ oldest conglomerate has taken on society’s pain points in housing, electricity, medicine, and water and his optimistic outlook for Asia . His main concern? The potential for geopolitics to create several sets of technological standards, producing inefficiencies and raising costs.

Telemedicine is one of the extraordinary growth stories of the pandemic. Annie Lamont, managing partner of Oak HC/FT, shared her insights on what it and other trends mean for healthcare investing . Lisa Weiland, CEO of the Massachusetts Port Authority, spoke with us about what it means to run a major transportation hub when passenger volumes are down by two-thirds. Airports are preparing for contactless journeys and other means to improve the customer experience. And Tim Welsh, vice chairman of U.S. Bank, explained how new skills are helping the nation’s fifth-largest bank better connect with its customers.

This year’s McKinsey Global Survey on Artificial Intelligence finds “no increase in AI adoption.” But the technology is far from stalled: one-fifth of companies are deriving at least 5 percent of their earnings from AI, and they plan to further their investments in this still-promising technology. And in the latest installment of McKinsey’s series with CNBC, senior partner Mary Meaney speaks with IBM CEO Arvind Krishna and Unilever chief HR officer Leena Nair to discuss how companies can organize for the next normal .

Finally, as the United States heads into a pandemic-altered Thanksgiving holiday, many are counting their blessings even harder than usual—and just as many are hoping for better days to come. A collection of articles and multimedia outlines McKinsey’s views on food security and the ways that food banks, distribution partners, philanthropic foundations, and the private sector can ensure that people across North America have reliable access to nutritious meals. Pradeep Prabhala leads the initiative and offers his thoughts in the New at McKinsey Blog.

Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital . The first two installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation and a 130-page report on the path to true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #32, November 18, 2020

In the pandemic, capitalism’s adherents are reconsidering its recent history and its future direction. two new reports can illuminate the path..

This week, McKinsey experts took a step back to consider the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the economic system in which much of the world operates: capitalism. Two new reports offer complementary views. In “ Rethinking the future of American capitalism ,” James Manyika, Gary Pinkus, and Monique Tuin trace the extraordinary achievements of the American system and the work still to come, including the need to rectify unequal and increasingly disparate outcomes for people and places, increasing “superstar” effects, and declining investment in public goods.

“ The case for stakeholder capitalism ” considers the role of business in society—a role that companies should not resist, lest they “find themselves on the wrong side of history … and also at a competitive disadvantage.” Vivian Hunt, Bruce Simpson, and Yuito Yamada examine the rising expectations for business, detail five principles for companies to follow, and offer many practical insights as they take action. One tactic is simply to publish your targets: a Danish power company put forth a ten-year plan to switch from coal to renewables; they did it in nine years, while simultaneously increasing profits by 43 percent.

Employees may be the stakeholders that need the most attention. According to our latest research , almost a year into the crisis, employees—especially women, LGBTQ+ employees, people of color, and working parents—are crying out for more support. Nearly all employers are aware of the challenges and have established polices to help, but they are finding it hard to execute their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) strategies. Asking and answering a set of tough questions can help companies close the gap.

Our experts also considered the future of corporate training, an expensive and often ineffective activity—when it did succeed, it was through in-person, hands-on learning. The COVID-19 pandemic brought that to a halt, forcing companies to innovate. In our latest research, we chronicle the advances companies have made in the pandemic and the ways in which the new capabilities they have built have secured their competitive position.

Also this week, our industry researchers looked at data’s critical role in two transport industries, bulk and tanker shipping and airlines ; considered the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains in retail ; and outlined our latest findings on consumer behavior , this time in Europe.

We have updated our comprehensive COVID-19 briefing materials. The new 129-page report is now available for download .

Executives everywhere are thinking about the potential for successful vaccines to deliver the next normal. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital . The first two installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation and a 130-page report on the path to true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #31, November 11, 2020

A vaccine breakthrough and how companies are thinking about purpose: here’s the latest from mckinsey’s research..

This week saw some surprising news about a large COVID-19-vaccine trial: a leading candidate has an efficacy rate of about 90 percent. There’s a lot of green between this particular ball and the pocket, but the news was most welcome. COVID-19 vaccines have been a focus of our research, as seen in our July 2020 overview , which includes a full discussion of the key issues of manufacturing and distribution, and subsequent articles on the end of the pandemic , an optimistic scenario for the pandemic response in the United States, and the technology transfer that may be critical to beating the COVID-19 crisis.

With the end in sight, or at least in fuzzy focus, companies are thinking ahead. A critical challenge for companies in the postcrisis era will be articulating clear, meaningful, and authentic purposes. Some companies seem to have the answer : they know their reasons for being, communicate them easily to customers, and enjoy the results. Our new framework can help others think through these knotty issues.

Governments have not lost sight of their purpose, but fulfilling it has become much more difficult. The gap between incoming and outgoing funds may reach $30 trillion soon. Our latest research shows a particularly effective bridge for governments to consider: real estate . The public controls a vast amount of acreage, office space, and other assets, and governments can extract much more revenue from them without breaching the public trust. On a related note, as part of their purpose, many businesses will embrace sustainability; voluntary carbon markets can help them reach their goals.

Cost management may be the yin to purpose’s yang, but is no less essential. In our new survey of some 300 C-level executives, we look at the ways that the corporate center is evolving. Our latest observations find that many organizations are accelerating their cost-reduction targets, modifying their operating models on the fly, and redefining their functional priorities.

Our new regional research considers two large economies in Asia. China, the world’s growth engine for the past 25 years, has come back —in ways that may surprise you. Consumer behavior has changed, pockets of growth are shifting, and leadership and management practices are in flux; businesses that manufacture and sell in China must be alive to the changes. And in Australia, businesses would be wise to understand today’s more mindful consumers .

Finally, the McKinsey Podcast zeroed in this week on retail, where the talk was all about rapid revenue recovery. Say what? It’s true: winners are recognizing the shifts in consumer behavior, adjusting their offerings, and rebuilding their businesses. Successful companies have five traits in common.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #30, November 4, 2020

Scenario planning and a new decision tool are helping executives cut through the murk of the pandemic’s many confusions..

Executives have noticed the striking rise in COVID-19 cases in many parts of the world, yet they remain positive—if a trifle more wary. In the October edition of our monthly survey of more than 2,000 leaders around the world, fewer executives than in September say that better economic conditions are on the way. But the balance is still tilted toward a positive outlook, especially where profits and customer demand are concerned.

We also asked respondents to vote on which of McKinsey’s nine pandemic scenarios is most likely. As of October, they are solidly in favor of scenario A1 (a muted recovery) but also see B2 (a prolonged and insufficient recovery) as a scenario to consider. Unsure about the terminology? In a new interactive , we explain our scenarios, what executives are thinking, and how that thinking has changed over time.

For decades, McKinsey has advocated for the advantages of scenario planning while also recognizing the ways the approach can fall short . The pandemic has illustrated both sides of the equation. Enter a new approach: parametric analysis, in the form of an “ uncertainty cube .” Right now, the businesses facing the greatest uncertainty are limiting themselves to three or four macrolevel scenarios that provide general direction but not much detailed guidance. The uncertainty cube uses several macroeconomic and financing parameters to generate highly specific advice by which to steer such a business.

Operating models, too, have come under pressure at companies facing great uncertainty. What’s needed are new structures designed to cope with the unprecedented conditions of 2020 and beyond. One way forward may be to embark, at last, on a true transformation. A new video explains the logic.

This week, we were delighted to sit down with two executives cutting remarkable paths through the pandemic. Aneel Bhusri, co-CEO of Workday, reveals the secrets of life in the pandemic for the finance- and HR-software powerhouse. And Sir Mark Lowcock, under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs at the United Nations, explains the panoply of effects of the crisis on the United Nations and its missions.

Also this week, McKinsey experts assessed the potential for India’s manufacturing sector to deliver much-needed growth and jobs; reviewed the impact of the pandemic on the global petrochemical industry ; and considered the moves that South Africa’s insurers can make to thrive in the long term.

Finally, in the pandemic, many of us are spending more time at home with our families. Children are naturally curious about what parents do—and it isn’t always easy to explain. At McKinsey, we took a crack at it and developed a new explainer for the younger crowd. Hint: it involves fishing.

Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital . The first two installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation, and a 130-page report on the path to true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #29, October 28, 2020

New views on the postpandemic futures of six sectors..

The old joke has it that nostalgia isn’t what it used to be. As the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic rolls on, the future isn’t what it used to be, either. What used to be a simple idea now comes freighted with caveats, assumptions, and speculations. In the spirit of illumination, McKinsey researchers this week took a look at how things might develop in six sectors beyond the next few weeks.

The auto industry is one of the world’s largest and has been devastated by the pandemic: sales may drop by 20 to 30 percent in 2020, and we estimate that profits will fall by $100 billion. But automakers can respond. One example: software-subscription services, which enable people to pay for programs that unlock features from heated seating to full self-driving capabilities, allow dealerships to develop a better relationship with consumers while offering drivers additional flexibility and customization.

The US restaurant industry has given many iconic brands to the rest of the world. But today, the sector is in trouble. In our latest podcast , we review the industry’s predicament, which we explored earlier in some depth , and assess the innovative solutions that companies are devising. Takeout and delivery are here to stay, and restaurants are working to make those experiences better. Menus also need a rethink. People don’t order sides, appetizers, and desserts as frequently when they’re ordering for delivery—but as leaders know, those items are often the difference between profit and loss.

For banks, the pandemic has changed everything. Risk-management teams are running hard to catch up with cascades of credit risk, among other challenges. Down the line, we expect that automated underwriting will take hold for retail and small-business customers and will both reduce losses and save costs.

Asian insurers are looking at a more consolidated future. Our new report argues that insurtechs’ new, pandemic-oriented products and digital capabilities—not least the ability to reach millions of customers within a few months—mean that a programmatic approach to M&A is the surest strategy to overcome the industry’s structural weaknesses.

We recently hosted a panel discussion with Shobana Kamineni, executive vice chairperson of India’s Apollo Hospitals, to discuss the evolving nature of healthcare at scale. Apollo Hospitals comprises more than 7,000 physicians and 30,000 other healthcare professionals, and its app is downloaded about 30,000 times a day. Among the findings: public–private partnerships are working well and have the potential to influence the future of healthcare.

Finally, we consider five fundamental questions for US higher education , as colleges fashion their pandemic response. Also this week: a new survey of Europe’s small and medium-size businesses lays out the extent of the economic damage and owners’ muted outlook.

Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to find McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital , featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #28, October 21, 2020

Geopolitics is back. business leaders need to think through the implications..

In the 1990s, adherents of Francis Fukuyama came to believe in the “end of history.” The COVID-19 pandemic and a host of other factors—such as climate change, cyberattacks, and terrorism—have helped history stage a resounding comeback. Now, according to Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, the trick for businesses is to adjust and hope that history is just back for a visit and not for revenge. In a discussion with McKinsey senior partner and cochair of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) James Manyika, Haass speaks about the return of geopolitics to the top of the CEO agenda. Supply chains are another critical focus of the renewed attention, as covered in MGI’s new report and partner Susan Lund’s comments in the Economist .

McKinsey research has documented the disproportionate effects of the crisis on ethnic minorities, both in the United States and elsewhere. Our latest report on the topic looks at the United Kingdom. Key findings: over the past two decades, every ethnic minority group has made progress, in both absolute terms and relative to the white majority, on a range of economic indicators. But the COVID-19 crisis threatens that progress; not only do all ethnic-minority groups have higher age-adjusted COVID-19-related death rates than white people do, but Bangladeshis and Pakistanis, in particular, are concentrated in occupations that have been hard hit by furloughs and layoffs.

This week, our marketing experts zeroed in on B2B businesses and how they sell . The classic approach is person to person; think of pharma’s armies of “detailers.” However, the COVID-19 pandemic has moved almost all sales online, often to self-service digital platforms. Everyone seems to be happier with the new arrangements. Some 70 percent of buyers say they prefer digital interactions; sellers like the greater effectiveness. Videoconferences and live chats are helping companies seal the deal; traditional phone calls are now a last resort.

Also this week, our industry researchers examined the latest travel data from China to understand what it might mean for tourism and business travel elsewhere. They also considered the new challenges for innovation in consumer companies .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #27, October 14, 2020

The stock market has many puzzled. here’s our explanation..

In the middle of the deepest recession in memory, stock markets are reaching new highs. Why the disconnect? To understand the conundrum, McKinsey experts point to three factors . First, many investors still take a long-term perspective; they are looking ahead to the end of the pandemic. Another factor: five big-tech companies now make up 21 percent of the S&P 500, one of the world’s most-watched markets. And smaller, unlisted companies have absorbed a lot of the economic damage, such as the dramatic rise in unemployment. The overall stock market can do relatively well even when employment and GDP are severely depressed.

Investors may also be focused on the vast differences in resilience at companies. We interviewed leaders at several UK companies that have done better than others during the crisis. What distinguishes them, in a word, is agility . From a common purpose to rapid decision making to empowered local teams, these companies found ways to respond quickly to COVID-19. A key finding: war-gaming for a no-deal Brexit built a solid foundation for supply-chain resilience.

A new podcast this week examined those same supply-chain issues, in the context of McKinsey Global Institute’s August 2020 report on risk and resilience. Experts Ed Barriball and Susan Lund explain the research finding that, on average, companies can expect a disruption to their production lines of one to two months—a very long time—every three-and-a-half to four years.

Another podcast lays out the path forward for the US retail industry ; our experts explain what it means for the industry when so many categories are tilting toward online shopping. Short answers, from senior partner Becca Coggins: “we’re in the foothills of what omnichannel-driven convenience will look like” and “some big innovations will scale, now that consumer expectations have been reset.” In another report, we examined the same forces and their effect on Middle East and Africa retailers .

Also this week: McKinsey researchers examined the potential for medtech innovation , and a more productive future for insurers .

Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Start with The McKinsey Download Hub , with McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital , featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #26, October 7, 2020

As the effects of the pandemic intensify gender inequality, further threaten the economy, and raise hurdles for the health industry, companies’ actions now could see them through the crisis..

In the sixth year of our Women in the Workplace study, conducted in partnership with LeanIn.Org, we find that the effects of the COVID-19 crisis have exacerbated gender disparities and their implications for women at work, especially for mothers, female senior leaders, and Black women across America. In addition to being laid off and furloughed at higher rates than their male counterparts during the pandemic, women are—notably, for the first time in our research on the topic—considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce altogether at staggering rates.

The exodus might include as many as two million women. That would raise a significant barrier to achieving gender parity in leadership roles in years to come. People are thinking about leaving the workforce for a variety of reasons. While many organizations are providing additional resources related to remote working and employee well-being, there is more to be done to meet employees’ needs for sustainable, flexible, and empathic work environments, especially for parents and caregivers.

Meanwhile, the global economic contractions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic have far exceeded those of the Great Recession that ended in 2009 and have occurred at a much faster rate, hitting all sectors and many of the world’s largest employers. As companies plan for various outcomes in 2021, our research shows what companies seeking resilience can do today to achieve “ escape velocity ” from the crisis by focusing on EBITDA 1 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. margins, revenue, and optionality.

An area where companies have already adjusted well is using technology to address changing work environments and to stay competitive. Our new global survey finds that organizations that are successfully responding to the crisis have deployed more advanced technologies, digital products, and tech talent to speed up innovation—and they expect most of these changes to outlast the pandemic.

Our research this week sheds light on two important issues facing healthcare providers. First, similarities in flu and COVID-19 symptoms could lead to a threefold spike in demand for COVID-19 testing as flu season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches. Maintaining sufficient capacity for testing and contact tracing will be critical in curbing further outbreaks and protecting high-risk groups. Second, the crisis has also led to a surgical backlog for elective procedures because of lack of hospital capacity, workforce shortages, and new safety protocols. Health systems will need to optimize current clinical operations to address the discrepancies in supply and demand.

This week we also explored how European marketing-and-sales leaders are navigating the effects of the pandemic, the domino effect for improving sales returns on investment, disruption that is reshaping construction-material distribution , and steps that distributors can take to stabilize operations and outperform competitors.

Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital , featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #25, September 30, 2020

Executives are more hopeful about the economy than they have been at any time so far during the covid-19 crisis. is an end to the pandemic at hand.

Six months after WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey suggest a positive shift in economic sentiment. More than half of all executives surveyed say economic conditions in their own countries will be better six months from now, while 30 percent say they will worsen. That’s the smallest percentage of pessimists we’ve seen since the survey in April 2020.

Taking a cue from those executives, our researchers delved deep into the US situation , emerging with an understanding of what it will take to deliver an optimistic outcome. The case depends on the progress made to date—and the potential for more. We’ve learned much about the natural history and epidemiology of COVID-19. We’re developing better diagnostics, including rapid point-of-care tests, a few of which can be completed in about 15 minutes. Case management has improved. And pharmaceutical companies have turned out a remarkably robust pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates. Put it all together, and an end to the pandemic is potentially within range.

Another new survey reveals the extent of the COVID-19 crisis’s disruption in working practices and behaviors . One-third of surveyed companies have accelerated the digitization of their supply chains, half have sped up the digitization of their customer channels, and two-thirds have moved faster to adopt artificial intelligence and automation. Many other workforce changes are also in progress.

Managers need to process these changes and many others, and come to grips with the long-term strategic-planning agenda . The essential question: what is the right way to think about 2021 and beyond? Should companies unbatten the hatches, or is it too soon?

For many families, it isn’t the workplace but the school that occupies the most attention. McKinsey’s latest look at education examines the variables that factor into decisions to reopen schools . Also this week, McKinsey researchers focused on cash management through the crisis and on the problems of budgeting in healthcare systems .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #24, September 23, 2020

A potential end to the pandemic, a bright outlook for electric vehicles, and more..

In our latest public-health research, we assess the prospects for an end to the pandemic. Two standards must be met. In the United States and most other developed economies, herd immunity is most likely to be achieved in the third or fourth quarter of 2021. Key variables are the arrival, efficacy, and coverage of vaccines; we anticipate four scenarios. A return to normalcy might come sooner, possibly in the first or second quarter of 2021. Every day matters, for lives and livelihoods.

On the economic front, the COVID-19 crisis presents the greatest challenge in a decade for the auto sector. Global sales of light vehicles in 2020 might decline 20 to 25 percent from prepandemic forecasts. In the hardest-hit countries, sales could fall by 45 percent. Electric vehicles (EVs) have not been spared. But our new research finds that EV sales may come back quickly in the next couple of years, especially in Asia and Europe, for a few reasons.

The crisis has also set in motion a number of trends in mobility that will affect EVs, internal-combustion engines, and all the other ways that people get around. A second report considers five of these trends. One critical finding: as lives become hyperlocal, modes of transport will change. We expect a drastic decrease in private-car usage in some major European cities but only a slight decline in North America. Greater China will become even more reliant on public transit and rail as some drivers are coaxed out of their cars.

Our private-equity research teams chipped in a comprehensive look at the effects of the crisis on sectors, and what those mean for portfolio companies and firm strategy. Several analyses offer insights; one on debt-service coverage ratios finds that companies in industrial equipment and logistics are among the most vulnerable, along with real estate, travel, and retail. Telecom companies are better situated, as their business has been only mildly disrupted.

Also this week: McKinsey has long been committed to research into gender equality. In 2015, UN signatories set an ambitious target of achieving gender equality and empowering women and girls everywhere. Five years on, we assess the scant progress to date, blunted by COVID-19, and offer ten things that everyone needs to know about gender equality.

Finally, our researchers offer new views on the post-COVID-19 future of the global travel industry , graphic-paper producers , and the global gold industry . And, with disruption everywhere, people miss their old lives. That’s a problem for managers, who can take three practical steps to help people process their grief.

Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Consider our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital , featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and a look at how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #23, September 16, 2020

Companies return to work after an unusual summer—and grapple with an uncertain future..

What now? Over the past six months, business leaders have reorganized supply chains, set up remote operations, and made tough financial decisions. The world anxiously awaits an effective COVID-19 vaccine that can be readily distributed. Until then, the priority is to reenergize organizations—to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term. There are many ways to lead, but regardless of the type of business or geography, ten actions can form a path to emerge stronger from the crisis.

We start with an idea—that returning is a muscle that needs to be exercised, not a plan to be executed once or a date to be achieved. We go on to more specific considerations, such as the need to make big moves fast and to be willing to rethink entire portfolios , including where work gets done .

Those are four of the ten actions, and they make for a good starting point. But companies must adjust for the particulars of their industry. Healthcare companies might want to pay strict heed to six trends that are affecting their business. Most were under way before the crisis. But a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head: the coming months might be the best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation , which could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. And now is the time to claim the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved through productivity gains .

McKinsey’s healthcare researchers also took a close look at the US blood supply , which was fragile before the pandemic and is now critical. Businesses have a big role to play in the solution. Blood donors frequently cite convenience and social pressure as prompts. Virtual campaigns for blood drives can help blood centers quickly reach large audiences and steer them to the locations most convenient for them.

CFOs have a critical task too: for many, it’s budgeting season. Our new research finds that the financial-planning process for 2021 presents an opportunity to turn hard-earned lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic into an enduring exercise in linking strategy to value. And leaders across organizations need to consider the problems of unresolved grief —another issue that the pandemic has dragged into the spotlight.

Our industry research this week looked at fintech , where the news is not altogether bad, though fintech companies may have to find a detour on the road to profitability. We also considered M&A in pharma , a long-running trend that should continue. Companies are advised to make sure that three capabilities—competitive advantage, capacity, and conviction—are up to snuff before pursuing COVID-19-era mergers.

Finally, the pandemic has forced a reckoning for many between the profit motive and a company’s social purpose. A team of McKinsey editors recaps how we got from there to here , and suggests where we might go next.

As summer turns to fall in the Northern Hemisphere, executives are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Consider our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #22, September 10, 2020

Mckinsey research focuses on the postpandemic future of developing asia..

No nation has escaped widespread disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic, but some have fared better than others. This week, McKinsey researchers examined the state of the recovery in some of the emerging Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—that began the crisis at a disadvantage and have suffered disproportionate effects. Our new report explores a series of trends that the pandemic has caused or accelerated. Within each is a seed of recovery, but stakeholders must be prepared to reimagine their country’s economy in five areas: manufacturing hubs, green infrastructure, investments in digital, talent reskilling, and high-value food industries.

We also looked in detail at developments in two ASEAN countries. In Indonesia , the pandemic is still raging; case counts and fatalities are rising sharply. The first priority is to mitigate and contain the outbreak. But even amid the current hardship and profound uncertainty, Indonesia can reimagine and reform itself by increasing national resilience, accelerating economic transition, rebuilding the tourist sector, and enabling genuine change.

Vietnam, too, is contending with short-term challenges as it emerges from the pandemic, especially in tourism and manufacturing, two of the country’s strengths. For the long haul, our new report argues that one essential element of growth is renewable energy. As a country likely to be heavily affected by climate change, Vietnam could accelerate its journey toward a less carbon-intensive future. A new national energy plan is a good sign; now, the challenge is to execute it. (For Vietnam and many other countries, education is another important cog in the engine of growth. This week, we published a comprehensive report on a more equitable and resilient education system .)

Elsewhere in the region, our latest CEO interview , with Peter Harmer of Insurance Australia Group, reveals new insights into “ the CEO moment ” afforded by the crisis. Asked about crisis resilience, Harmer says, “You have to tether resilience to real beliefs. We have a deep commitment to our purpose, which is to make your world a safer place. Our purpose is the framework through which all our decisions are made.”

Also this week, a new McKinsey survey tapped the wisdom of hundreds of executives across a swath of industries on the need for speed . Most expect significant change across ten of 12 dimensions; surprisingly, only a few expect change in their corporate purpose. (Perhaps they have already embraced Peter Harmer’s view .) And our industry researchers looked at the promise of digital services at B2B service companies and contemplated the troubled present—and potential future—for downstream oil and gas in North America.

Summer may be over in the Northern Hemisphere, but great reading knows no season. It’s not too late to catch our annual summer reading list and our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital , featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections that accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

Preventing future waves of COVID-19: Briefing note #21, August 31, 2020

After seven months of responding to the pandemic, we have learned some things. here are some of the key lessons and how to apply them., by sarun charumilind, matt craven, jessica lamb, and matt wilson.

When history books one day recount the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, it may well be a tale of human ingenuity and adaptiveness. Although the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has infected more than 24 million people and left more than 800,000 dead as of this writing, the early projections of mortality were much worse.

Fears of millions of deaths by June 2020 have proven wrong—not because the disease is less lethal than anticipated, but because those fears ignored the ability of people to learn and change behaviors. Pockets of resistance against wearing masks and complying with other measures notwithstanding, the global public-health response has saved millions of lives. Increasingly, countries are restarting more aspects of normal life while keeping case numbers tenuously in check.

Pockets of resistance against wearing masks and complying with other measures notwithstanding, the global public health response has saved millions of lives.

Yet the threat to lives and livelihoods persists. A COVID-19 vaccine may yet “ save the world .” But even if one proves effective, it will be many months before we will have the capacity to vaccinate everyone—and there are new concerns about reinfection. 2 Andrew Joseph, “First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say,” STAT, August 24, 2020, statnews.com. Therapeutics such as dexamethasone and remdesivir appear to provide important benefits for those with severe cases but are not alone sufficient to stop deaths from COVID-19.

New therapies are possible but by no means guaranteed. Countries will very likely need to plan for almost another year during which public-health measures are their primary tools for saving lives. In the meantime, the world cannot be idle. Societies have been upended, causing unprecedented disruption to economies, education systems, and the day-to-day lives of people everywhere. And as we and others have argued, saving lives and opening societies is a false trade-off .

In that area, too, our ability to learn and adapt is proving dispositive. Countries that have successfully reduced their number of COVID-19 cases have generally been more successful at reopening their economies. For them, controlling the virus ultimately has come down to two things: understanding what to do and executing well. Both have been challenging at various points. For example, the evidence base for the population-wide use of masks only became compelling a few months into the pandemic response. In contrast, the importance of testing has been clear from the earliest days, but many countries have faced operational challenges in ramping up their capacity.

While there is much more to learn, this article summarizes what response leaders have discovered so far about what to do and how to do it. Every jurisdiction is doing some of these things; none of them are new for experts in infectious diseases. But we have tried to describe specific considerations for practitioners looking to adopt and adapt best practices to their management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the outsize role that businesses are taking in the crisis response in numerous countries, many of the ideas are as relevant to private-sector leaders as to those in the public sector. Interventions are divided into three categories—detecting disease, reducing the number of new cases, and limiting mortality—and can be tailored for specific populations and settings.

Detecting disease

The ability to detect cases of COVID-19 is a critical prerequisite for effective public-health programs. A comprehensive program might include traditional disease surveillance, cluster analysis to understand local patterns of transmission, and wastewater surveillance for early warning of disease hot spots.

Disease surveillance

An ability to collect, analyze, and interpret data is fundamental to the management of infectious diseases. While many people have grown familiar with epidemiological metrics such as test-positivity rates and case-fatality ratios, many countries and regions still rely on 20th-century surveillance systems. The biggest gaps are in data collection and integration: there is no shortage of data-crunching horsepower in the world, but everyone is forced to work from the same imperfect data sets. Even seven months into the COVID-19-pandemic response, there is a surprising level of disagreement about questions as basic as the true number of people who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and the number of deaths attributable to it. Continuing to expand testing, as described later in this article, is a big part of improving surveillance.

The best surveillance systems seamlessly combine data from traditional sources with newer data sets, such as anonymized mobility tracking—and do so in near real time. They provide a high level of detail and transparency around the characteristics and location of those infected while protecting individual privacy. And they improve over time as a design principle, incorporating new sources of data and improving quality to reduce friction in the response.

The best surveillance systems seamlessly combine data from traditional sources with newer data sets, such as anonymized mobility tracking—and do so in near real time.

Cluster analysis

The medical community has learned much about how COVID-19 is passed from person to person and therefore how to prevent transmission. But there is more to learn about the specific nature of transmission in particular geographies. The examination of chains of infectious-disease transmission, or cluster analysis, helps medical professionals understand how, when, where, and between whom transmission occurs.

Locally relevant information can focus public-health measures on steps that will make a difference and deemphasize those that won’t. A study of more than 3,000 cases across 61 clusters in Japan, for example, identified healthcare facilities and retirement centers as among the most important centers of transmission. 3 Yuki Furuse et al., “Clusters of coronavirus disease in communities, Japan, January–April 2020,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, September 2020, Volume 26, Number 9, pp. 2,176–9, cdc.gov. Similarly, clusters in the United Kingdom have been identified around retirement homes, in hospitals, and in meatpacking factories—the latter also being a source of clusters in Germany.

Cluster analysis has revealed the importance and characteristics of so-called superspreaders (infected individuals who pass the disease to many others). A deeper understanding of transmission dynamics may allow some regions to move from broad-based interventions to targeted ones. It can also allow for more nuanced risk assessments, for example, to determine who can safely access senior-care facilities.

Wastewater surveillance

An important advance in surveillance capabilities came with the discovery that SARS-CoV-2 is present in the stool of infected people and is detectable even in highly diluted samples, such as municipal wastewater. Wastewater sampling, used for decades to monitor for polio, appears to detect viral increases of COVID-19 up to six days earlier than diagnostic tests of individuals do. 4 Jordan Peccia et al., “SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreak dynamics,” medRxiv, June 12, 2020, medrxiv.org. While a number of locations, including Queensland in Australia, Ashkelon in Israel, and Boise in the United States, 5 AFP and Toi Staff, “Israeli tech firm successfully tracks down COVID-19 in Ashkelon’s sewers,” Times of Israel, July 30, 2020, timesofisrael.com; Misty Inglet, “Boise city officials work to flush out coronavirus data through continued wastewater testing,” KTVB-TV, July 27, 2020, ktvb.com; University of Queensland, “Australian researchers trace sewage for early warning COVID-19 spread,” Medical Xpress, April 16, 2020, medicalxpress.com. are piloting or using this approach to monitor for COVID-19, wastewater remains an underutilized tool globally.

The wastewater-surveillance approach is most applicable in low-prevalence settings where an increase in cases is more noticeable and testing of individuals might otherwise be limited. Ideally, public-health leaders would have the ability to work upstream when increases in viral concentration are detected—for example, from testing town sewers to determining which neighborhoods are the source of the virus.

Reducing the number of new cases

Preventing new cases of COVID-19 ultimately requires reducing the opportunity for infected individuals to pass the disease to others. That can be done by identifying and isolating those who have been infected or are at high risk, ensuring physical distance and airflow management, reducing the risk of the encounters that do happen, and reducing case migration from higher-prevalence areas. The basic tool kit for the reduction of new cases is well understood by experts and nonexperts alike. It includes canceling mass events, restricting capacity in social settings (particularly indoors or with large numbers of people), implementing confinement measures, and restricting internal movement. Those measures can be reinforced through effective behavior-change communication and focused implementation for high-risk groups or specific geographies. And since COVID-19 vaccines are likely to be approved eventually, leaders may want to start now in preparing to deploy one effectively. In this section, we highlight some second-order or less appreciated lessons from the pandemic response so far.

Identifying and isolating those infected

Widespread, accurate, efficiently managed testing and contact-tracing programs allow countries to isolate those who have or are at high risk of contracting COVID-19. Testing and tracing have played major roles in the successful response to various phases of the pandemic in a number of countries, including Austria, Iceland, New Zealand, and South Korea.

Despite the apparent simplicity of testing and tracing, practitioners learned the hard way through early missteps. Among their many lessons are the following:

Communicate clearly with the public about the appropriate uses and limitations of different types of tests, including antigen, molecular, and antibody testing.
Address supply-chain and logistical challenges to keep expanding testing access until most cases are being detected. Test-positivity rates above 5 percent suggest that too many cases are being missed.
Make use of pooled testing to boost capacity where needed, especially in low-prevalence settings. Combine testing for surveillance with testing for positive-case identification.
Accelerate testing turnaround time by ensuring that those performing tests are compensated based on speed and accuracy, not just volume. Accelerate the application of test results by integrating data platforms for testing with those for contact tracing, shortening the time to quarantine.
Staff enough personnel, as the core of contact-tracing programs is human-to-human conversation. Overinvest in community sensitization to the value of tracing and importance of contact quarantine. Digital contact-tracing tools with high adoption can also accelerate contact identification and shorten the time to quarantine.
Don’t expect contact tracing to work perfectly initially; take a data-centric approach to improving operations and effectiveness over time.
Recognize that isolating for ten to 14 days is onerous, especially for low-income individuals. Social services and options for out-of-home isolation, such as in converted hotels, can improve the effectiveness of quarantine and make it more tolerable.

Managing risk in encounters between people

COVID-19 is spread primarily from person to person, including from those not showing symptoms, through the air (either on droplets or by truly being airborne). Close proximity and poor airflow increase the risk of transmission, while the use of facial coverings decreases it. Specific considerations for risk reduction vary depending on risk, context, and other conditions. 6 “Considerations for wearing masks: Help slow the spread of COVID-19,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, August 7, 2020, cdc.gov.

Limited evidence from US states suggests that mask mandates are correlated with greater reductions in new cases than mask recommendations are. Different masks offer varying levels of protection. N95 respirators fitted to users provide the greatest protection, 7 “Masks save lives: Duke study confirms which ones work best,” Hartford HealthCare, August 11, 2020, hartfordhealthcare.org. protecting both the wearer and those around them. Supply constraints, cost, and user comfort mean that universal N95 use is not practical in many settings. Three-layer surgical masks provide the next greatest protection. Goggles and other eye protection may provide incremental protection to the wearer relative to a mask alone. 8 Derek K. Chu et al., “Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis,” Lancet, June 2020, Volume 395, Number 10,242, pp. 1,973–87, thelancet.com.

Frequent hand washing and environmental cleaning reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, the relative emphasis on environmental cleaning has decreased, as evidence suggests that transmission primarily occurs from person to person rather than via objects in the environment.

Reducing case migration

Across the world, countries are taking different approaches to restricting importation of COVID-19 cases. They range from complete bans on international travel to targeted bans on travel from locations with high caseloads to screening and quarantine requirements for arriving travelers. In some countries, including Australia and the United States, some of those measures also apply for travel within countries. In many cases, companies and other institutions are implementing their own policies beyond those required by governments. Measures that are based on consistent, easily understood criteria are more likely to maintain high levels of public buy-in and participation.

Changing behaviors

A successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic requires convincing large numbers of people to change their behaviors. Some countries have seen significant resistance to such changes, particularly those around physical-distancing measures and facial-covering mandates. A lack of trust in governments, information overload, and inconsistent messaging over time have all contributed to that opposition. Effective public-health communication can accelerate the adoption of new behaviors.

Effective communication includes segmenting populations based on the combination of channels, influencers, and messages most likely to resonate with individual groups. While there are positive examples from the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the public-health community could learn more from experts in targeting and tailoring political and consumer-marketing messages. The influence model can help. It suggests that people are most likely to change behaviors when four elements are in place:

Understanding and conviction in what is being asked. “I believe that wearing a face mask will help protect me and my community from COVID-19.”
Reinforcement with formal mechanisms, which may include both ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks.’ “The grocery store has both a sign, which I can see as I approach, saying that masks are required and a greeter handing them out.”
Confidence and skill building in the new behavior. “I’ve worn a mask enough times that I’ve stopped worrying about looking silly.”
Role modeling the new behavior. “The mayor of my town and almost everyone around me are wearing masks. Those not doing so look like the exceptions.”

Applying insights from the influence model to COVID-19-related communications is an area in which collaboration might help. Many jurisdictions are enlisting the help of partners, celebrities, and influencers to amplify their messages. For example, in the United States, basketball star Stephen Curry asked questions of infectious-disease expert Anthony Fauci live on Instagram. That served to bring evidence-based public-health information to audiences less likely to access official sources.

Protecting vulnerable populations

The COVID-19 pandemic has a disproportionate impact on a number of vulnerable populations . Such groups include people whose age or health puts them at increased risk and those at greater risk because of socioeconomic factors. Communities with severe housing problems, unemployment rates, incarceration rates, poverty levels, and food insecurity suffer 1.4 to 4.0 times as many COVID-19-related deaths as other communities. Vulnerable populations are less likely to have access to healthcare in most countries and are more likely to have underlying health conditions.

In addition to measuring and tracking the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vulnerable populations, designing protective interventions requires identifying what makes those groups more vulnerable to infection. Approaches might include prioritizing access to testing, targeting communications, and providing additional support for quarantine and isolation. Interventions will likely need to be multipronged, since the most vulnerable communities are often vulnerable for multiple reasons. Furthermore, the stakeholders best positioned to implement interventions effectively will need resources, which would ideally be allocated proportionately to the outsize impact of COVID-19 infection on vulnerable communities.

Planning for a vaccine

It is reasonable to hope that Emergency Use Authorization (or its equivalent) may be granted to one or more COVID-19-vaccine candidates before the end of 2020. 9 Monoclonal antibodies and some drugs also have the potential to prevent COVID-19 cases. Similar principles apply to them, but for simplicity, we refer only to vaccines in this section. China and Russia agencies have also granted conditional use for COVID-19 vaccines in their countries. While vaccines will be valuable new tools, their approval will bring a whole new set of questions for leaders.

Planning now will increase the chance of a successful vaccine rollout. Those on point will need to monitor closely the technical characteristics of the most promising vaccine candidates. Such monitoring includes understanding the likely dosing regimen, potential efficacy, and side effects. From there, they will need to develop a clear, scenario-based strategy for prioritizing vaccine access, recognizing the range of potential vaccine outcomes and combinations available.

Every jurisdiction is likely to be vaccine-supply constrained in the short term, so agreeing on grounding principles in advance will make allocation decisions easier down the road. So will designing the end-to-end supply and delivery systems that will be needed. The plan should include systems for ensuring series completion in the case of a multidose vaccine and data systems for tracking those who have been vaccinated. It may include temporarily expanding the roles of medical practitioners—for example, by allowing those with lower levels of qualification to administer vaccines, after training, in uncomplicated cases.

Finally, planners may need to overinvest in addressing vaccine hesitancy in areas where surveys suggest it is a significant concern. Communications around vaccines will be both challenging and important given the likely complexity of information around efficacy, safety, and dosing across multiple vaccine candidates.

Limiting mortality

In addition to limiting case numbers, reducing the mortality associated with COVID-19 is a key element of the fight against the disease. Clinicians and health-system leaders have learned much about both the specific clinical management of COVID-19 and how to prepare health systems to manage surges in cases while maintaining essential services.

Health-system preparedness

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world anxiously witnessed many countries’ health systems strain under the exponential onslaught of cases. Critical-care capacity was a bottleneck, given that one in five patients, initially, were dependent on ventilators. Healthcare supply chains, especially for personal protective equipment, were overwhelmed.

To create surge capacity, health systems and consumers ceased elective care—seemingly overnight. That resulted in an imbalance of capacity, with overloaded health systems in COVID-19 epicenters transformed into disaster-response hubs. In areas where the disease had not yet spread, care centers sat empty, waiting for an outbreak they were unsure would ever arrive.

We know now that health systems in any developed country should be able to anticipate, plan for, manage, and successfully navigate the pandemic adequately both for patients with COVID-19 and for patients with other diseases . Some require focused action, especially surge capacity, supply availability, workforce readiness, clinical-operations processes, structure for COVID-19-case governance, and financial resiliency. 10 Bede Broome, Omar Kattan, Pooja Kumar, and Shubham Singhal, “Reassessing Covid-19 needs: How providers can reexamine their surge capacity, supply availability, workforce readiness, and financial resiliency,” NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery, May 7, 2020, catalyst.nejm.org.

Use of therapeutics and clinical management

The search for effective therapies for COVID-19 has yielded two important advances, so far, but no breakthrough transformative enough to obviate the need to limit cases. Dexamethasone, an injected corticosteroid, was shown to reduce mortality by 35 percent in patients requiring mechanical ventilation and by 18 percent in those requiring oxygen only. 11 RECOVERY Collaborative Group, “Dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with Covid-19—preliminary report,” New England Journal of Medicine, July 17, 2020, nejm.org. Remdesivir has been shown to reduce recovery time by an average of four days. 12 John H. Beigel et al., “Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19—preliminary report,” New England Journal of Medicine, May 22, 2020, nejm.org.

Both drugs emerged from the medical community’s initial focus on repurposing drugs that were already approved or in late-stage development for the treatment of other diseases. The focus is now shifting to new R&D. In the months ahead, additional evidence may support therapies based on other antivirals and monoclonal antibodies. In addition to specific therapeutics for COVID-19, there have been advances in the nonpharmaceutical management of the disease. For example, there is some evidence to support the use of “proning”—placing patients face down—to reduce the need for mechanical ventilation. 13 “Proning COVID-19 patients reduces need for ventilators,” Columbia University, July 2, 2020, cuimc.columbia.edu.

Policy makers can continue to keep a close eye on both the evidence for new therapeutics and the standards of clinical practice. Over time and with further advances, strong health systems may succeed in reducing COVID-19-related mortality to the point at which the disease is far less feared.

Public-health measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic will be relevant for as long as its risk continues. Many countries and regions have risen to the challenge by combining multiple public-health measures that work for them, although almost all have some room to improve. As we consider what it will take to respond to current and future waves of COVID-19, we can take some comfort from the fact that far more is known about controlling SARS-CoV-2 than was understood seven months ago. It is up to all of us to learn, adapt, and apply those lessons effectively.

Download the article (PDF–435KB).

About the authors

Sarun Charumilind is a partner in McKinsey’s Philadelphia office, where Jessica Lamb is a partner; Matt Craven is a partner in the Silicon Valley office; and Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York office.

The authors wish to thank Damien Bruce, Penny Dash, Pooja Kumar, and Taylor Ray for their contributions to this article.

This article was edited by Dennis Swinford, a senior editor in the Seattle office.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #20, August 27, 2020

Amid one of the greatest bull markets ever for technology, semiconductor fabs must find ways to keep up. and all advanced-industry companies should organize for speed to sustain their current pace..

This week, McKinsey healthcare researchers documented the shortage of medical oxygen in developing countries, a long-standing problem made worse by COVID-19. New ideas can help these regions meet short-term needs and set the foundation for a better long-term future.

Our industry research focused on semiconductors and the industries that make and use advanced electronics. Chips control everything from toys and smartphones to laptops and thermostats. In the pandemic, demand has soared for many of these products—even as supply chains have faltered and geopolitical tensions have risen. But will the boom last? Such questions have semiconductor companies thinking about their manufacturing plants. In a winner-take-all industry, even a slight edge in manufacturing can help a company capture an outsize portion of revenues. Our new report outlines the essential ingredients of tomorrow’s successful fab.

Chipmakers and other advanced manufacturers have been running hot for six months now, with some notable notches in their belts. One factory recently ran at more than 90 percent capacity with only about 40 percent of the typical workforce. But few leaders think the pace is sustainable. Our new report lays out what it will mean for companies to switch from running on adrenaline to making organizational speed a permanent part of their cultures.

The pace is unlikely to slacken soon. As our new global survey suggests, the appetite for automation has not dimmed. Instead, the factors for success are shifting. More and more, successful organizations are finding ways for people to work in concert with new technologies.

In fact, automation is among the key themes that can lift India to prosperity. That’s the conclusion of a new report from McKinsey Global Institute published this week. The pandemic has sounded a clarion call for India to accelerate growth. Our analysis suggests that a program of targeted reforms, including greater productivity in several sectors, can help the country produce the 90 million nonfarm jobs it needs to create by 2030.

This week, McKinsey researchers also examined cash management at privately owned companies and reviewed lessons from the past for US governors and mayors planning a second term.

Download the full briefing materials .

Download the article .

We are in the thick of August, the time of year when many people take a break, or at least slow down—even in a pandemic. With that in mind, McKinsey broadened its annual summer reading list and asked 60 diverse leaders to share books that have inspired them, that have provided a much-needed respite, or that they look forward to reading. We hope you draw some inspiration from this list and find ways to restore yourself during these unusual times.

Speaking of reading, our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital , has a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the first of five edited collections produced to accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #19, August 20, 2020

Mckinsey’s latest research looks at restoring economic activity, today and tomorrow..

This week, we returned to the overarching story of the pandemic: the twin imperatives of saving lives and livelihoods. Our latest research builds on reports we published in April and May 2020, and on recent academic findings that the stringency of national lockdowns is not well correlated with changes in GDP. In our new report , we find that successful control of the virus is the key to unlocking the economy, by restoring the confidence consumers need to reengage in economic activity. In countries that have successfully controlled the coronavirus (“near zero” countries), economic activity (in the form of discretionary mobility) has returned to normal; in those that have not (“balancing act”), it is still about 40 percent lower than before the pandemic.

It seems that controlling the virus can get countries back to where they were at the start of the year. But where do we go from there? A companion report outlines the future of economic growth in the United States, by looking back at what worked well in the years after the 2008–09 recession. Federal, state, and local governments can take a range of actions to both improve productivity and stimulate demand. Among the most powerful is investment in inclusive growth and unlocking the maximum productive potential of all people in communities. For example, achieving gender equality could add $4 trillion to the US economy, and closing the Black–white wealth gap could add a further $1.5 trillion.

Businesses, too, are eager to boost productivity and demand. Consumer companies may feel these needs more acutely than most, as two reports published this week demonstrate. McKinsey experts outlined the five bold moves that consumer companies should make to adapt their organizations to the exigencies of the crisis. Another requirement is to meet the next-normal consumer . Seemingly every consumer behavior has been altered by the crisis; companies need to adapt to big changes in how people get their information, what and where they buy, and how they experience shopping.

This week, we also surveyed executives at cell and gene therapy companies about the effects of the pandemic; reviewed the challenges of securing digitally savvy talent at aerospace and defense companies; calculated the significant impact of COVID-19 on mining operations ; considered the prospects of upstream oil and gas operations ; and surveyed liquefied natural gas buyers on their changing preferences.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #18, August 13, 2020

As consumer needs change with the ups and downs of the pandemic, and companies look for signs of recovery, mckinsey continues to explore ways to approach the next normal from leadership and operational perspectives..

The abrupt halt of global travel during the COVID-19 crisis, aside from delaying personal trips and vacations, has had a major impact on businesses across sectors. Companies with workforces used to frequent travel—along with the airlines and hotels that depend on revenue from that travel—have been particularly affected. As companies continue to enforce travel restrictions and workers resort to virtual meetings, travel-industry players are looking to rebound from the crisis, but it may be a years-long road to recovery. Our latest research shows that, historically, business travel rebounds from crises at a slower pace than leisure travel. As outbreaks in some regions stabilize and travel resumes, travel providers can work to accommodate changing needs and, in turn, boost customer confidence.

Our research this week explores how business operations may change as the travel industry and other sectors reimagine the next normal in a world of physical distancing and evolving consumer behaviors. For operationally intensive sectors, our analysis suggests that the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated automation and digitization. Upskilling and reskilling the workforce will become even more of a priority. For consumer-goods leaders , reshaping the sales function and fostering collaboration between retailers and manufacturers will be critical.

More broadly, our conversations with executives this week demonstrate that successfully weathering the pandemic will also require a people-centered approach to internal and remote leadership. Our interview with Steve Collis, CEO of AmerisourceBergen, considers how a daily executive meeting can be used not only for decision making but also as an opportunity to extend empathy to colleagues. Mike Henry, CEO of BHP, similarly tells us that prioritizing people and building strong relationships has boosted the company’s resilience. He says, “Against the backdrop of COVID-19, there’s a premium on getting out, demonstrating empathy, and engaging with people to understand what their concerns are.”

This week we also analyzed how companies can mitigate risks in industrial supply chains and utilize their procurement functions and spend analytics to bolster resilience; explored ways behavioral-health leaders can build on the current momentum for change in the industry; and looked at how Australia can gauge the scope of the pandemic’s effects on different industries and workforces and address cautious consumers .

Also this week: we’ve added a special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital. This 172-page volume is the first of five edited collections produced to accompany Our New Future , a multimedia series we created with CNBC. You can download it here .

We’ve now reached August, the time of year when many people take a break, or at least slow down—even in a pandemic. With that in mind, McKinsey broadened its annual summer reading list and asked 60 diverse leaders to share books that have inspired them, that have provided a much-needed respite, or that they look forward to reading. We hope you draw some inspiration from this list and find ways to restore yourself during these unusual times.

We continue to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials (July 6, 2020). In 54 pages, we document the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal, and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #17, August 6, 2020

Banks are using new techniques to find out who’s ‘swimming naked.’ and new mgi research looks at the cost of disruption in global supply chains..

Millions of employees have lost their jobs and cannot pay their credit cards. Restaurants and shops are only slowly reopening; many cannot pay their rent. Industrial companies can’t make payments on their equipment leases. Landlords have less income and cannot keep up with their mortgages. Suddenly, the world is awash in credit risk. Our new research shows how banks are tending to a radical surge in demand for one of their most ancient practices: measuring and monitoring credit risk . Leading banks are deploying a new configuration of sector analysis, borrower resilience, and high-frequency analytics. They are moving past sectoral analysis to take subsector views of the probability of default. Some are going even deeper, to understand what’s happening in the financial life of their borrowers.

Like credit risk, supply chains have experienced intense disruption. This week, the McKinsey Global Institute looked at the effects not only of COVID-19 but of all manner of disruptions, including natural disasters, geopolitical uncertainty, climate risk, cyberattacks, and more. A key finding: over the course of a decade, companies can expect disruptions to erase half a year’s worth of profits.

This week, McKinsey also had the privilege of speaking with three CEOs about what is shaping up to be the defining moment in their careers. Alain Bejjani, CEO of Majid Al Futtaim, told us about the resilience needed to keep this Dubai-based operator of shopping malls and other consumer real-estate businesses vital and relevant during the crisis. Lance Fritz, CEO of Union Pacific Railroad, talked with us about tactics to stay present in video calls and keep the board informed. Kristin Peck, the brand-new CEO of animal-health company Zoetis, reflected on the core beliefs that have kept her company on track through the crisis.

Also this week: a new report documents the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on Asian-American communities. And McKinsey’s industry research examined the potential for greater collaboration with government in global tourism , outlined the moves that European restaurants are taking to thrive in the next normal, considered how life insurers can use artificial intelligence to better underwrite risk, and reviewed the nascent Tech for Good movement in the United Kingdom.

McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials (July 6, 2020). In 54 pages, we document the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal, and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and a look at how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #16, July 30, 2020

Our latest executive survey reveals a darkening outlook. but our review of vaccine research provides a ray of hope. this week, mckinsey covers the yin and yang of the pandemic..

In North America and in developing markets, executives have become less hopeful about their countries’ economies and more cautious in their views on potential scenarios for COVID-19 recovery. That’s a key finding from our latest poll of more than 2,000 global executives. Leaders in China and India, on the other hand, are growing more upbeat.

One thing that will certainly improve expectations in every country is news of a safe and broadly available vaccine. Our latest research looks at global vaccine development and finds that early data on safety and immunogenicity in Phase I and II trials are promising, though limited. Our review of historical attrition rates suggests that the current pipeline may yield more than seven approved products over the next few years, with some available for emergency use late this year or early in the next. A new interview with Microsoft’s chief technology officer explains how artificial intelligence is aiding vaccine development. After development, it’s on to production, where we argue that tech transfer may be critical to beating the disease.

Our new research on leadership in the crisis turned up several intriguing developments this week, starting with the idea of creating a “to be” list. Our interview with the CEO of Cincinnati Children’s Hospital talks about how leaders can choose to be generous and genuine with some colleagues, and collaborative and catalytic with others. Leaders can also acquaint their teams with lessons from the past . We looked at the post–World War II era, when countries rebuilt from the ashes, to extrapolate ideas that are just as relevant now. Finally, we identified the ways that leaders can shift mindsets and behaviors to reopen safely.

In the COVID-19 crisis, many companies are finding new leaders in unexpected places, well down the org chart. Some young middle managers are defying the problems and frustrations of this difficult period to achieve far more than others. Leading companies are capitalizing on this by installing four talent-management practices to thrive beyond the pandemic. These companies are also revisiting the playbook of chief HR officers , to understand how the crisis has changed the game.

McKinsey’s industry-research teams were active this week, publishing new reports on the resiliency of national banking systems ; the future of US freight and logistics ; the lessons of past crises for mining companies ; the recovery of Germany’s travel industry ; and the next normal for European bancassurance . Readers interested in banking should also see our interview with the chairman of the State Bank of India, India’s largest lender and the world’s largest digital bank. And bankers, retailers, and others should consult our must-see guide on how to understand and shape consumer behavior .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #15, July 23, 2020

Economic recovery depends on the return of the consumer—but shopping will never be the same. new mckinsey research considers the possibilities..

The ubiquitous face mask does more than protect against viral spread; it also changes the way we look at one another—and thus symbolizes the mystery of customer behavior in the pandemic. Several new McKinsey research efforts analyze the changes taking place in the homes of consumers, on their phones, and in stores. “ Reimagining marketing in the next normal ,” for example, documents six of the biggest shifts emerging from COVID-19. One of the most intriguing is the rising importance of neighborhoods: with travel largely shut down, marketers must figure out how to localize their outreach.

Another momentous shift: customers care more about sustainability : our survey finds that European consumers want fashion firms to act responsibly by considering their social and environmental impact. This survey is part of McKinsey’s comprehensive effort to document customer sentiment across dozens of countries throughout the pandemic.

Both consumer-goods makers and retailers have everything at stake in understanding these shifts. For consumer companies , the future is about three things: getting better at predicting demand, being alive to all the ways they might increase their sales, and using agile techniques to sustain the hard-won momentum. For retailers —particularly grocers, apparel companies, and restaurants—the way forward starts with new ideas about revenue management (a fundamental rethink of products, pricing, and promotions might be in order) and about operating models (especially store footprints, which will depend on how soon cities reopen ). Such operational issues are paramount in Africa and Asia; our latest research collects useful innovations from those regions and around the world.

B2B customers too are changing, and their providers must adapt. Our latest insights , based on a detailed survey, suggest that B2B companies may be too focused on the here and now. In times like these, first movers do better than the competition by finding new pockets of growth and reshaping go-to-market approaches to serve them.

Chief executives can help their marketing chiefs meet these goals, and much more besides. As some of our most senior colleagues argue, this may be the CEO moment of our times. Companies can reset themselves and their potential by embracing four shifts: unlocking bolder (“10x”) aspirations, making their “to be” lists just as important as their “to do” lists, fully embracing stakeholder capitalism, and harnessing the full power of CEO peer networks.

This week, McKinsey researchers also considered the future of mobility in India , reviewed the changes underway in Europe’s private banks , surveyed physicians about their employment prospects, looked at the reset that supply chains need, and explored two hot topics in tech: how to get value from cloud computing and the shifting priorities of cybersecurity .

This briefing note was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #14, July 16, 2020

As many countries struggle to control the pandemic, mckinsey remains tightly focused on the global healthcare response to it..

This week, we reviewed the potential for South Africa’s small businesses to survive during the pandemic and to thrive after it, considered the case for more M&A as corporate India seeks to recover from the crisis, looked at the ways shared mobility might come back after it ends, offered recommendations on pricing for property and casualty insurers , and pondered the future of packaging design (including an interview with the CEO of Sealed Air).

But we focused mainly on healthcare systems. Testing is critical for containing COVID-19, yet many countries still struggle with shortages of the necessary materials. Our new article looks at five parts of the testing process and examines the bottlenecks in each. Some US laboratories, for example, have reported unused capacity to conduct tests, even as patients and healthcare workers report difficulty securing them. Similar mismatches have arisen in the United Kingdom, and they are also showing up in supplies of reagents, test kits, and other consumables. To fix the problems, countries will have to make capacity more visible by establishing information nerve centers .

Another focus of research is airborne transmission of the coronavirus. World Health Organization guidelines now state that it may be possible indoors, especially for people who spend significant amounts of time in crowded, poorly ventilated rooms. Our new article not only offers a primer on air purification, air filtration, and airflow management but also examines the steps that building managers, safety experts, and others might take to optimize airflows and ventilation indoors and to limit the spread of the virus.

This week also saw news about a successful vaccine trial. Thanks to that, the world may be able to look ahead to the pandemic’s end. But as a McKinsey team writes, this is not the last pandemic . To correct deficiencies in the surveillance of and response to infectious diseases, governments will have to make substantial investments—but they will be well worth the money. Our research outlines the shifts needed in healthcare systems.

Ara Darzi, director of the United Kingdom’s Institute of Global Health Innovation, has similar aspirations: he is simultaneously focusing on new ideas that can help tame COVID-19 and on the longer term beyond it. In an interview with McKinsey’s Rodney Zemmel, Lord Darzi explains how healthcare can transition from a “sickness service” to a “health and well-being service.” One critical step is to recognize that “we have many pandemics—only we don’t call them pandemics. We have the pandemics of obesity, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.” McKinsey Global Institute covered the substantial upside of addressing these chronic conditions in a new report published last week.

COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing note #13, July 9, 2020

As lockdowns lift, businesses are thinking about their next moves. mckinsey research offers insights into the near future..

McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials (July 6, 2020). In 51 pages, we document the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal, and the new organizational structures that can help companies sustainably keep pace. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and a look at how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

Around the world, economies are cautiously reopening. Businesses are keeping one eye firmly on the here and now but also tentatively looking ahead to what’s shaping up as a great reset. Our new research this week offers several takes on this theme.

Start with the global pandemic’s front line: the healthcare sector. This week, the McKinsey Global Institute published a new report , Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity , which measures the potential of proven interventions to reduce the global burden of disease. Taking advantage of them would not only alleviate a problem exposed by COVID-19—people with diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, and obesity have been hit hardest—but also add, in our estimate , $12 trillion to global GDP in 2040.

Reimagining the workforce is another pressing task. Executives everywhere wonder how to bring people back to the workplace and how they will do their jobs. Our new research takes a look at the challenges of creating a sense of belonging, common purpose, and shared identity when some people work in their homes and some in offices and factories. Another article considers the great reset’s tactical challenges, such as guarding against cyberattacks on remote workers.

Small businesses confront some of these problems. But much as Ginger Rogers danced the same steps as Fred Astaire—only backward and wearing high heels—small businesses must make the necessary changes at a greater relative cost and with less working capital. Our new research examines the struggles of US small businesses in three sectors (restaurants, manufacturing, and retailing) that could be facing a long, hard recovery.

Another sector thinking hard about its future is infrastructure . In the United States, two scenarios are possible: a boom spurred by a government stimulus or a bust as tax revenues and user fees dry up. Agencies and investors alike must prepare for both outcomes. One key to generating a rapid impact from infrastructure spending is to repair existing assets.

This week we also look at global freight flows (down 13 to 22 percent this year) and the varied potential for recovery, reviewed the implications of COVID-19 for the US food supply chain , and considered the challenges of pricing in a pandemic.

COVID-19: Briefing note #12: July 2, 2020

One step forward, two steps back: the pandemic is giving new depth of meaning to that well-worn expression. our new research explores both parts of it..

McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials . In 94 pages, we document the situation, show how countries and companies can transition toward the next normal, and offer planning advice across multiple horizons. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic. New this week: a look at how our editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.

In a week when the global pandemic seemed to gather strength, our new research both shows the grim economic news and reveals a streak of optimism that many are starting to feel. Our monthly global economic conditions snapshot indicates that 52 percent of executives now say that their national economies are doing substantially worse, up from 10 percent in March 2020. Yet the proportion of executives who expect profits to rise within six months rose by four percentage points, and leaders in retail, high tech, and telecom are increasingly optimistic about the return of customer demand. In June, many more executives around the world said that the economies of their home countries would soon be doing better than had said so in May.

Another new global survey examined sentiment among people who make financial decisions for their households. Across the globe, they are reporting lower income, savings, and spending. In most countries, 20 to 60 percent of these decision makers say they fear for their own jobs. Roughly half have no more than four months of savings.

These grim statistics present a challenge for banks and other consumer-facing businesses, such as telecom companies, retailers, health systems, and utilities. A delicate balancing act awaits these organizations as they work to ensure that customers receive the necessary support—and that lenders can continue to cultivate relationships with their borrowers—while preserving shareholder value in the longer term. A detailed perspective on utilities considers this and other conundrums. So does a new look at African banks .

The virus’s spread is accelerating, but businesses everywhere are both coping with their urgent needs and looking ahead to the time when their employees can safely return to work. As that moment comes closer—let us hope—three new research efforts show, first, how leaders can seize the moment to support their employees by building on the trust their early efforts have engendered and, second, how they can engage employees through clear and inspiring communication. And our survey of US companies shows that same insistent streak of optimism: respondents expect most employees to be working onsite by December.

One lesson of the crisis is the need for speed: the pandemic obeys no speed limits, so businesses have had to adapt through quick fixes and workarounds. How can they keep these successful innovations going over the long term? Our new research suggests nine ways to reinvent the organization for speed.

This week, we also looked at how companies can reset their capital spending , demystified the role of quantitative models , and talked with two McKinsey experts about how to choose the right path to unlock the economy.

COVID-19: Briefing note #11: June 25, 2020

Every industry is adapting to life during a pandemic. new mckinsey research examines the implications for six sectors..

McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments in Europe and around the world. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials . In 94 pages, we document the current situation and show how countries and companies can transition toward the next normal and plan across multiple horizons. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic.

This week we zeroed in on critical developments in six major industries, starting with consumer goods . Research we published last year ( here and here ) documented the recent trends in consumer M&A and the ways that successful companies used acquisitions to accelerate revenues and profits at a time when growth was elusive. Our latest research reveals that COVID-19 has accelerated some of these trends and created new realities. One critical finding: consumers are returning to big brands they know and trust. While these companies accounted for only 16 percent of the industry’s growth in 2015–18, that figure rose to 39 percent in 2018–19—and reached 55 percent in the first three weeks of April 2020.

In times of crisis, all eyes focus on the insurance sector. This week, we surveyed insurance agents in China, the first country to reopen. The outlook there is complex: some lines, such as health insurance, fared well, while others, such as property and casualty, suffered significant declines and are just now recovering.

At semiconductors companies, the pandemic has posed questions for every aspect of the business model. Our April 2020 research outlined the potential shifts in demand. This week’s update offers scenarios in which demand might revive, and the ways that companies can adapt while also preparing the enterprise to emerge stronger in the next normal.

Software makers are also in the midst of (yet another) disruption. For the past ten years, the rise of software as a service (SaaS) has reshaped the enterprise-software industry. Growth accelerated, but industry profitability tumbled. Our research finds that the next ten years will be just as tumultuous. SaaS companies are at a crossroads: COVID-19 will accelerate the footprint of SaaS, given the growth of remote working, the rapid deployment of digital solutions, and the lower up-front costs.

Like many other industries, engineering and construction has had to reimagine how work gets done. This week, we spoke with an industry leader, who revealed the ways that his company has adapted.

Finally, while small business might not be an industry, it is a mighty economic sector that employs tens of millions of people in the United States. Our new research finds that between 1.4 million and 2.1 million US small businesses could close permanently as a result of the first four months of the pandemic. Certain sectors are particularly at risk.

This week, we also examined the priorities for companies in India to thrive in the next normal; reviewed the early returns on post-COVID-19 discretionary spending in China, India, and Indonesia; and considered the lessons of the past that might prove helpful as policy makers seek to revive the US economy . Finally, we were privileged to speak with two remarkable leaders, Mellody Hobson of Ariel Investments and Hubert Joly of Best Buy, about the challenges of leadership in extraordinary times.

COVID-19: Briefing note #10: June 18, 2020

Our latest research focuses on recovery in europe..

Governments worldwide have already allocated more than $13 trillion to stabilize economies in freefall and restart growth. These measures, written and delivered at speed, have succeeded in many ways. But as the crisis drags on, new questions are arising. Is the money directed in the best possible way? And is more needed?

This week, McKinsey researchers looked at ways to fill the gaps that COVID-19 has created in US state budgets . Worldwide, we estimate that government deficits could reach $30 trillion by 2023. That’s a sobering figure. But we believe that if governments and the private sector work together as never before, they can avoid the disastrous consequences of massive deficits, lay the foundations for a new social contract, and begin to shape a postcrisis era of shared, sustainable prosperity.

Our new research on Europe suggests that governments can start by distinguishing between sectors that can navigate the crisis safely, and others, such as those that were already in decline and were then badly hit by the crisis, that may need structural change. In Germany, for example, you will find both types of sectors in abundance.

This week we documented many of the COVID-19-related shifts taking place in Europe. A critical issue now coming to a head concerns privacy : How do companies comply with the European General Data Protection Regulation and also support contact tracing and testing measures? Another is mobility: transportation systems may be permanently altered in the crisis. Our new research on the United Kingdom outlines the implications.

Some of those concern the many UK start-ups offering novel transport solutions. This week, our new research found that small and medium-size businesses in the United Kingdom face dire prospects: one in five may not survive past August 2020. In the recovery, European governments cannot do all the heavy lifting; our analysis suggests that European foundations have a window of opportunity to step up their actions and play an essential role in national rebuilding and recovery efforts. And we interviewed a leading UK dealmaker on the potential to restart major capital projects through standby agreements and other moves that keep projects on track.

This week, we also presented ideas for retailers to redefine value and affordability for newly strapped consumers, addressed big shifts in physicians’ behavior , explained why insurers need to revamp their distribution models , and considered a safer, better future for travel .

COVID-19: Briefing note #9: June 11, 2020

Our latest research examines the social risks of covid-19..

Even as societies and businesses race to reopen, the global pandemic still poses significant problems. This week, we documented an accelerating one: loneliness. In many parts of the world, the social fabric was already fraying before the pandemic. Now, as former US surgeon general Vivek H. Murthy, MD, points out , COVID-19 is disconnecting us further from our human relationships. That might cause a “social recession, with profound consequences for our health, for our productivity in the workplace, for how our kids do in school.”

McKinsey is tracking developments on all these fronts. For an overview, read our latest briefing materials . In 94 pages, we document the current economic and epidemiological situation and show how to transition toward the next normal and to plan across multiple horizons. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic.

This week, we investigated loneliness and other effects of the lockdown and physical distancing in Europe. Across the Continent, the proportion of people who say that they feel lonely “most or all of the time” has nearly tripled. Loneliness is higher in countries, such as Bulgaria and Greece, where trust and satisfaction with relationships were already at low levels in 2018.

For many, the cure for loneliness might be a return to the office, the subject of some of our latest research . Many people say they are happy working from home. But could their happiness be running on fumes of the social capital built up through years of water-cooler conversations, meetings, and social engagements? Has working from home succeeded only because it is viewed as temporary, not permanent? Hundreds of billions in real-estate investment are riding on these questions.

Most industries are engaged in similarly momentous discussions. This week we published new perspectives on the fashion , hospitality , infrastructure , institutional-investing , nursing , and public-transport sectors . We also reviewed developments in Spain and Africa ( payments and food supplies ), as well as trillion-dollar ideas for governments around the world.

Although the news is bleak, Vivek Murthy sees cause for optimism : “I think that this could be an extraordinary opportunity for us to step back and ask ourselves if we’re leading the kind of lives that we really want to lead. This is our chance to ask ourselves where people fit in our priority list and whether there’s a gap between our stated priorities and our lived priorities.”

COVID-19: Briefing note #8: June 4, 2020

This has been an extremely painful time for communities across the United States and beyond, even as the pandemic continues to take its toll. We are amplifying our commitment to do our part to ensure that black lives are spoken for and valued, both inside our firm and beyond. Our ongoing research on the US racial-wealth gap and on diversity and inclusion is intended to clarify some of the underlying issues and potential paths forward.

Research we published in April called out the disproportionate effects of COVID-19 on black Americans, who are almost twice as likely to live in the counties where the risk to health and economic activity is highest if and when contagion strikes. Many of these places were the scene of this week’s anguished protests.

Our newest research looks at the pandemic’s effects on US minority-owned small businesses . Vulnerable even before the pandemic, it has struck them disproportionately hard. Many of them are in the industries most susceptible to health and economic problems, such as accommodations and food services, retail, and healthcare. Owners are innovating and staying flexible, helping their communities to cope with the crisis. But these businesses are highly vulnerable; they need help from the private, public, and social sectors.

Similar dynamics afflict US minority students. Previous McKinsey research has demonstrated the costs of a sizable achievement gap between white students and black and Hispanic ones. Our latest research , published this week, finds that the pandemic not only threatens to widen the achievement gap but also poses problems for all learners. The hurt could last a lifetime.

People of color are vulnerable to yet another effect of the COVID-19 crisis as it affects large companies. Previous crises show there is a very real risk that as companies adapt to new ways of working, inclusion and diversity may unintentionally recede as strategic priorities. Yet as our latest report on inclusion and diversity argues, that would place companies at a disadvantage: they could not only face a backlash from customers and talent now but also, down the line, fail to better position themselves for growth and renewal.

McKinsey continues to research many aspects of leadership through the crisis. This week, we reported on dozens of our new research efforts, including the emerging themes dominating boardrooms; the post-COVID-19 future for US rail and trucking companies ; the lessons learned from Asia’s manufacturing and supply chains ; a new approach to tracking demand for travel ; the potential for telehealth ; and the safety protocols that hospitals, grocery stores, and others have used to stay open.

Our latest briefing pack details, across 94 pages, the current economic and epidemiological situation, how to transition to the next normal, and planning across multiple horizons. Please also see the full collection of content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic.

COVID-19: Briefing note #7, May 27, 2020

New insights on consumer sentiment and the return to work..

The Memorial Day weekend in the United States, always a somber occasion and never more so than this year, seemed to mark a turning point in the COVID-19 crisis. As spring turned to summer, many US regions started to reopen, as did others in Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Despite ongoing public-health concerns, the desire to spend and shop is palpable. This week, McKinsey published new surveys of consumers in Argentina , Australia , Brazil , Central America , and the United States , detailing the strength of the consumer urge in each country. The outlook is brighter. Consumers are less anxious and depressed about health concerns. Business executives are a bit more optimistic this month than last. And our new surveys of global B2B buyers and those in Asia and Europe suggest that confidence is holding firm.

That said, the picture these surveys paint is complex. In a sense, the world is turning from “resilience” to “return”—the third of the five pandemic elements we sketched out in late March. To get back to business, many companies are running spreadsheets to see how many people spaced six feet apart will fit in an office, planning one-way paths through the workplace, and figuring out adaptations to restrooms, lunchrooms, and entrances. All of those are critical tasks, but they are not enough. What’s needed is a return “muscle” : an enterprise-wide ability to absorb uncertainty and incorporate lessons into the operating model quickly.

One of the skills that will help with that urgent need is surely analytics, widely recognized for its problem-solving and predictive prowess, which is becoming a modern-day sextant to navigate the COVID-19 crisis. Analytics can help tackle numerous urgent tasks facing businesses today: forecasting demand, identifying potential supply-chain disruptions, targeting support services to at-risk workers, and determining the effectiveness of crisis-intervention strategies, to name a few.

Also on that list: improving the experience of customers, many of them frightened, some jobless, and all of them deeply uncertain about the next normal. To renew and refresh their connections to the people they serve, companies need to recognize what’s happening now , and respond in three ways: digital excellence, safe and contactless engagement, and dynamic customer insights.

These are just a few of the issues McKinsey has researched and written about in recent days to help companies and countries lead through the crisis. Please see the full collection of content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our first 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the coronavirus outbreak.

COVID-19: Briefing note #6, May 13, 2020

Emerging evidence provides some tantalizing glimpses into the epidemiology of the global pandemic., by matt craven, mihir mysore, and matthew wilson.

As the reopening of economies continues across much of Europe and North America, it’s worth taking stock of the epidemiological situation and trends that will define the months ahead. At the time of this writing, the official counts of cases and deaths from COVID-19 have passed four million and 280,000, respectively. Recent studies have made increasingly clear that each of these figures is a significant underestimate. Population antibody surveys suggest that official counts are underestimating the true number of cases by a factor of five or more (although in several cases the methodology has been called into question).

Comparisons of 2020 and 2019 mortality rates show that substantially more people are dying this year, although we don’t know how much of this is due to missed deaths from COVID-19 rather than excess mortality from other causes.

The pandemic and public health—five trends to watch

With lives at stake, a thoughtful approach is paramount. Here are the five emerging trends that private-sector leaders need to monitor.

There are still many places where the epidemic is getting worse

While much of the media narrative is about reopening, many countries, including several of the largest emerging economies, are still on the “upslope” of the epidemic, with daily case counts increasing. While an increasing number of countries and regions have proven that they can use lockdowns to drive a reduction in cases, to date, we have few examples of success outside higher-income countries. The next few weeks will be critical tests of our ability to “bend the curve” in more countries with varying contexts and healthcare capacity. In some of these countries, the absolute number of deaths is relatively low; interventions against COVID-19 will need to be viewed through the lens of both lives and livelihoods.

Reopening is a massive natural experiment—make sure you learn from it

We have never before attempted to shut down the modern global economy, much less reopen it in the setting of an ongoing pandemic. We have a few examples of strategies that seem to work better, or worse, but none of us know with any certainty the best actions. Even places with strong initial responses like Hong Kong and Singapore have faced challenges as they reopen. 14 Jill Terreri Ramos, “Fact-check: Did countries that reopened see a spike in coronavirus?,” Austin American-Statesman , April 20, 2020, statesman.com; Suzanne Sataline, “Covid-19’s resurgence in Hong Kong holds a lesson: Defeating it demands persistence,” Statnews , March 26, 2020, statnews.com; Scott Neuman, “Emergency declared in Japanese prefecture hit by 2nd wave of coronavirus infections,” NPR, April 13, 2020, npr.org; “Japan’s Abe extends state of emergency to May 31,” Al Jazeera, May 4, 2020, Aljazeera.com; Abigail Leonard, “This Japanese island lifted its coronavirus lockdown too soon and became a warning to the world,” Time , April 24, 2020, time.com; “AP photos: Beijing slowly reopens amid falling virus cases,” Associated Press, March 25, 2020, ap.com; Philip Oltermann, “Germans urged to stay at home amid fears Covid-19 infection rate is rising again,” Guardian , April 28, 2020; theguardian.com; Adam Rogers, “The Asian countries that beat Covid-19 have to do it again,” Wired , April 6, 2020; wired.com. China has also seen an increase in cases in the past few days. 15 “China reports rise in Covid-19 cases, Beijing calls for vigilance,” France 24 , May 11, 2020, france24.com.

In the United States, there is only a loose correlation between disease prevalence and plans for reopening. States with more cases generally plan to reopen later, but there are exceptions.

A similar point can be made about businesses’ plans to reopen. Companies are planning different approaches, even based on the same underlying fact base. This implies that leaders across the public and private sectors should build learning and adaptation into their reopening plans from the start. Relevant lessons might come from other geographies, other sectors, or from peers and competitors. Leaders should be prepared to incorporate new information and alter their approaches, either incrementally or radically, as new information becomes available.

Resurgence seems to be not a question of if but when, where, and how bad. Many experts are focused on a potential second wave of COVID-19 in the northern hemisphere this autumn. 16 Lena H. Sun, “CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating,” Washington Post , April 21, 2020, washingtonpost.com. This is certainly possible. But focusing on the risks of autumn and winter causes us to look past the summer, which is risky because it is sooner and because it is when many jurisdictions will be reopening and testing.

R is important, but so is the absolute number of new cases

Over the past few months, many have become more familiar with epidemiological concepts like the reproduction number (R) of a virus. R defines the transmissibility of a pathogen, as measured by the average number of people to whom each infected person transmits. R is a measure of change; it tells us how fast the epidemic will expand or shrink. Values greater than one define a growing epidemic, while those less than one define a shrinking one.

R has been getting a lot of attention, for example, in defining the packages of interventions that can yield R<1 in a given setting. But the absolute number of cases is also important. Imagine two cities, each with an R of 0.9, implying a slightly declining epidemic. But one of the cities has 1,000 new cases per day and the other has ten. The former faces a far higher risk in reopening than the latter.

In practice, we are seeing countries and regions take divergent approaches to this question. Hubei Province in China waited until reported cases were near zero to reopen, whereas Italy and Spain took the first steps to reopening with daily case counts at more than 1,000. Every location needs to balance public-health and economic imperatives; we can’t say which approach is better, but we are likely to learn more about what works in the weeks and months ahead.

It’s (still) all about testing, tracing, and targeted quarantine

Significant resources are required to run a program of testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine at the required scale, but relative to the economics of lockdowns or global recession, these costs are trivial. Many countries are still far short of where they need to be on testing, and contact-tracing programs remain a patchwork. Our recent article provides more details on contact tracing. Strengthening these programs remains an urgent priority for many geographies. This point is no less important for having been made frequently.

In any country, here are the four metrics to watch in assessing the strength of test, trace, and quarantine efforts:

Test positivity rate, which measures (imperfectly) the extent to which testing systems are capturing all cases. The World Health Organization recommends a target of less than 10 percent positivity.
Tests per million population, a measure of the depth of testing.
Average number of contacts identified per case, which measures how effective contact-tracing systems are at identifying and isolating the likely next generation of cases. The figure will tend to be lower in lockdown settings than when people are moving and interacting freely.
Fraction of cases arising from contact lists, a measure of the portion of cases arising from known sources versus undetected community transmission.

An element of transmission dynamics now beginning to receive more attention is transmission within households. 17 Hao-Yuan Cheng, Shu-Wan Jian, and Ding-Ping Liu, “Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset,” JAMA Network, May 1, 2020, jamanetwork.com. We may need to rethink the current model of home isolation and develop modified strategies for mild and asymptomatic cases given that isolation can prove difficult for many. Any new model should of course ensure a comfortable experience for those who test positive, so that they’re strongly inclined to follow the recommended approach.

Innovation—and clinical evidence—leads to hope

The speed and scale of the R&D response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented in human history, with billions of dollars being spent and committed in pursuit of drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics for the virus. Today, there are more than 150 vaccines in the pipeline, and 200 drug candidates. On diagnostics, beyond the RT-PCR 18 Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. and classic lateral-flow immunoassays already in use for many viral and antibody tests, new technologies such as CRISPR 19 Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats. have already been granted emergency-use authorization by the US Food and Drug Administration. 20 For the full list, see “Emergency use authorization,” fda.gov.

The past few months have seen the launch of numerous trials in an effort to find therapies and vaccines—with some challenges from studies that are too small in size, or not randomized or controlled. As of early May, more than 1,700 trials are in progress targeting COVID-19 and related complications. More of these are randomized and controlled clinical studies—and some are starting read out results, providing evidence to support new approaches to prevent and manage COVID-19 infection and associated complications. The expert consensus is that enhanced treatments for COVID-19 will likely be available by the end of 2020; and only 12 to 18 months will likely be needed 21 Nicoletta Lanese, “When will a COVID-19 vaccine be ready?,” Live Science, April 2020, livescience.com. to bring a vaccine to market at sufficient scale for widespread immunization, compared with the typical five or more years. Some developers have even indicated a vaccine may be available sooner for limited use, with an emergency-use authorization for health workers issued as early as this fall. 22 Steve Usdin, “End of the beginning for COVID-19 vaccines,” Biocentury , May 2, 2020, biocentury.com.

Here are five areas to watch:

The great vaccine-platform race. At the time of writing, 13 vaccines are already in clinical trials, and the full pipeline spans a massive range of platforms, including RNA, DNA, inactivated viruses, protein subunits, and virus-like particles (VLPs). The virus and viral-vector approaches are traditional; others are nascent. Each platform will start to produce data in the months ahead, starting with evidence of vaccine safety and then potentially demonstrations of immunogenicity (and even efficacy) toward the end of the year, though we still need to better understand the link between immunogenicity and correlates of protection. While having multiple platforms in development increases the likelihood of a successful vaccine, each platform has different competitors, ranging from smaller biotech companies to multinationals, as well as distinct manufacturing requirements, with implications for the scale-up of capacity.
A more nuanced understanding of the uses of different therapeutics. The initial discussion on drugs has focused almost exclusively on repurposed antivirals and antimalarials for treatment. The 200-plus candidates currently in development cover a broad range of use cases—from postexposure to prophylaxis, and from mild and moderate to severe cases. The more than 1,700 active trials are expanding the focus from drugs that directly attack the virus to those that confer immunity and to those that target complications of COVID-19 such as cytokine-release syndrome (CRS) and, more recently, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Labs are deploying a wide array of platforms, from repurposed antivirals (as mentioned above) to monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies to neutralize the virus to immune modulators for ARDS/cytokine storms, and even cell-therapy approaches for late-stage disease. The emergency-use authorization for remdesivir is an important milestone for COVID-19 drug development as well. In the coming months, we anticipate that a more nuanced understanding of the different use cases and the types of approaches being tested will help reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19 and also change the standard of care.
A new normal and unrealized opportunity for data sharing. Unlike the experience with prior epidemics (including Ebola), COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented sharing of prepublication data, analyses, and results via medRxiv, a collaborative platform. This proliferation of information can support innovation and has been rapidly integrated into both the media and policy discussions—sometimes, however, to unfortunate effect. Looking forward, as the scientific community seeks to make meaningful interpretations of the thousands of running studies, we need to bring together the patient-level data from the hundreds of small, undersize, not-well-controlled, compassionate-use, and observational studies, in a responsible way. Meta-analyses of such studies will help us know if therapies actually work, at what dosing and clinical regimen. There are efforts underway in the ecosystem to address this—and hopefully a collaborative model emerges that could remain with us postpandemic.
The impact of novel R&D models. Competitors are collaborating in ways never expected. 23 David Beier and Max G. Bronstein, “Partnership offers hope for COVID drug development,” Biocentury , May 8, 2020, biocentury.com. Companies are banding together in multilateral collaborations, some formal and some informal, to advance innovation. For example, leading plasma manufacturers are partnering in novel ways to produce a single unbranded immunoglobulin product; more than 15 pharmacos are collaborating in a COVID-19 R&D forum to advance, individually and collectively, the most promising drugs and vaccines; and decades-long competitors Sanofi and GSK are partnering on COVID-19 vaccine development. Novel master protocols, often with inspired names (such as Solidarity, Recovery, and ACTT), are being used to simultaneously test multiple drugs. 24 Lauren Martz, “Master protocols emerge as a critical clinical tool against COVID-19,” Biocentury , April 11, 2020, biocentury.com. Innovators are deploying novel development plans and trial designs as well; for example, Pfizer and BioNTech are simultaneously testing four vaccines in their combined Phase I/II study. These approaches are not without risk given the parallel work in traditionally sequential stage-gated processes.
The challenge of separating the signal from the noise. With Ebola, a substantial R&D mobilization ran into difficulties recruiting patients to test all of the approaches being considered. Some of these same challenges are happening with COVID-19. Ensuring that studies are well controlled and appropriately powered will be critical to understanding what actually works. Further, data sharing will hold the key to advance our understanding and interrogation of the benefit/risk trade-off. Multiple prioritization efforts are attempting to do this but are still in the early stages. In some ways, the scale of the mobilization may be the biggest challenge.

Matt Craven, MD, is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office. Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office. Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York office.

This article was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #5, April 13, 2020

Our latest perspectives on the coronavirus pandemic., by matt craven, mihir mysore, shubham singhal, and matt wilson.

In this note, we offer some of our latest insights on the COVID-19 pandemic, starting with a survey of the current epidemiology and the five dynamics leaders need to watch: the efficacy of the surge in critical care, the expansion of testing and other traditional approaches, the development of antibody testing, the unknown nature of immunity, and a wave of innovation that might produce treatments and vaccines.

We then highlight four of our many recently published articles, each designed to help senior executives think through the challenges of restarting economies. These and many more articles are available in our collection of coronavirus thinking.

The outbreak is moving quickly, and some perspectives here may soon be out of date. This article reflects our perspective as of April 13, 2020. We will update it regularly as the crisis evolves.

COVID-19: Where we are, and where we might be heading

COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly around the world. Almost every country has reported cases, but the burden is asymmetrically distributed. In the past seven days (April 6–12), 46 percent of new confirmed cases have been reported in Europe and 39 percent in the United States. To an extent, that’s because countries are at different stages of the pandemic. Some that were effective at initial containment, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, have seen resurgence and are implementing additional measures to address it. Others, such as many countries in Western Europe, have seen the number of new cases plateau or begin to decline and are debating the right approach to reopening their economies. Some countries appear to be at the peak of infection and are urgently building surge capacity in their health systems. In other parts of the world, the number of cases is rising rapidly. Countries such as Russia and Turkey are seeing a recent acceleration. India too has experienced a significant increase in the number of cases since the beginning of April and has evolved its response strategy, including extending the nationwide lockdown.

The public-health tools and approaches to be deployed vary considerably based on this status. Measures including physical distancing, travel restrictions, effective use of personal protective equipment (PPE), testing and tracing, and healthcare surge capacity require more or less emphasis, depending on epidemic phase and local context. Local use of these measures varies considerably—physical distancing may be near-impossible in crowded urban settings, for example, and the apps and digital tools for contact tracing like those used in China may not be acceptable in other parts of the world. Another challenge is the dependencies among these measures: to take one example, the timeliness and stringency of physical distancing measures substantially influences how other tools should be deployed.

Although a consensus has emerged around the use of physical distancing to slow transmission in many high-prevalence settings, a few countries, such as Sweden, are pursuing an alternative “herd immunity” strategy focused on protecting the most vulnerable populations while using only limited distancing measures to flatten the curve for others. The goals are to maintain many aspects of economic and social life today and, over time, to develop a large enough pool of exposed people (about 70 to 80 percent) to “protect the herd.” Other countries are closely watching the outcome of this approach.

The months ahead will probably be quite volatile and dynamic. It now appears likely that some places will experience a local resurgence as restrictions are lifted and economies reopen. That will influence countries at the earliest stages. For example, Singapore has seen a resurgence mainly from imported cases, which have led to local transmission; this suggests that restrictions on international travel may continue. As China gradually reopens, the tactics it used (including group-based isolation models and setting a norm of wearing masks in the workplace) and their efficacy will inform approaches around the world. Western Europe’s experience in relaxing restrictions, and the most successful approaches there, will inform the approaches deployed in the United States.

Considering the variety of approaches in use, public understanding and consensus will evolve day by day. We will continue to find out more about the coronavirus—how it is mutating, the duration of immunity, its transmission dynamics, and so on. For example, it now appears that the virus probably won’t be highly seasonal, given the recent rapid growth in a number of hot spots in the Southern Hemisphere. But it is still possible that the arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere will slow transmission somewhat, as some studies in both labs and natural contexts suggest. 25 “Rapid expert consultation on SARS-CoV-2 survival in relation to temperature and humidity and potential for seasonality for the COVID-19 pandemic,” National Academies Press, April 7, 2020, nap.edu.

With all this in mind, we believe that leaders should closely watch five health-response dynamics in the coming weeks:

The efficacy of the health-system surge and how it is maintained over time. Countries with rapidly increasing numbers of cases are finding ways to expand their critical-care capacity massively. Their ability to do so, and to push mortality from COVID-19 to lower levels, will not only save lives but also engender confidence in their health systems’ ability to manage a resurgence. Over time, as cases plateau and then decline, there will be questions about how long to maintain surge capacity while also guarding against resurgence. Providers will be under pressure to consider the broader context of a capacity surge; for example, in the United States, the mass cancellation of elective medical procedures and the associated financial hardship for many providers is likely to force difficult discussions about which procedures should be allowed to restart, and when. Other effects of surge capacity, on vaccine-preventable diseases and maternal and child health, will also be critical to monitor.
The scaling of traditional public-health approaches. In parallel with the surge in critical care, countries also need to think about building surge capacity in traditional public-health approaches—disease surveillance, contact tracing, and targeted quarantines. Such a surge must build on current efforts to scale viral testing rapidly, mostly through RT-PCR 26 Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. machines. There's a somewhat surprising relationship between testing and the number of cases—generally, countries that have tested more people have diagnosed fewer cases per thousand people. Moreover, to detect and control flare-ups quickly, widespread access to viral testing will become increasingly important as countries and cities prepare to relax distancing measures. In some countries, this testing capacity could be paired with at-scale contact tracing, with privacy-by-design embedded; and quarantine facilities to help localize hot spots and prevent a broader resurgence.
The development of antibody testing and understanding of sero-prevalence. We have little idea how many people have been exposed to this coronavirus. One recent study in a hard-hit area of Germany showed that about 14 percent of the population has been—far from the levels of exposure required for herd immunity to emerge but higher than many had expected. 27 Antonio Regalado, “Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to COVID-19 in one town in Germany,” MIT Technology Review , April 9, 2020, technologyreview.com. A lot of other studies are underway to assess the portion of the population exposed to COVID-19. If individual or herd immunity is to play a meaningful role in reopening, antibody tests to measure exposure must be widely available. While many such tests are being developed, their accuracy and availability have been challenged. The arrival of accurate, widely available antibody tests will help countries understand how close they are to achieving herd immunity and whether they can use immunity as a meaningful signal to start reopening.
The nature of immunity. People exposed to other coronaviruses have exhibited durable immunity for several years after exposure. Everyone hopes the same holds true for the novel coronavirus, but we don’t know for sure. Emerging reports of recovered patients testing positive again on RT-PCR acute-infection tests raise questions about reactivation, as do studies in China showing very low levels of antibodies among some infected people. While it is unlikely that the duration of immunity is short, any new information about this issue would require a significant shift in strategy.
Innovation. There has been an unprecedented burst of global pharmaceutical R&D related to COVID-19. Today, more than 130 therapeutic candidates and 80 vaccine candidates are under consideration across a range of modalities and use cases, such as treatment of severe disease and pre-exposure prophylaxis. If drugs already approved for other indications prove effective in treating COVID-19, they could be deployed most quickly, but in coming months readouts on experimental new drugs will also arrive. The massive scale-up of clinical trials—especially randomized placebo-controlled studies—will provide evidence to guide clinical decisions. Similarly, the unprecedented consortium of plasma companies generates hope that hyperimmune immunoglobulin can be developed quickly. Seven vaccines are already being tested in humans. 28 “COVID-19 therapies and vaccines: Clinical,” Biocentury, biocentury.com. Although at-scale production and distribution is not likely for 12 to 18 months after a successful trial, these vaccines would provide a critical element in the armamentarium against COVID-19. For all these innovations, a central challenge will be rapidly scaling up production to meet global needs.

Getting back to work: Four insights

The pandemic’s economic challenges are unprecedented. Since the crisis began, McKinsey has published more than 70 articles on the extraordinary public-health and economic impact, as well as the ideas that government and business leaders need to safeguard lives and livelihoods. In the past week, four articles have captured the attention of leaders around the world. We summarize these articles here and invite you to take in the full collection .

‘ How to restart national economies during the coronavirus crisis ’

by Andres Cadena, Felipe Child, Matt Craven, Fernando Ferrari, David Fine, Juan Franco, and Matthew Wilson

The threat of COVID-19 to lives and livelihoods will fully resolve only when enough people are immune to the disease to blunt transmission, either from a vaccine or direct exposure. Until then, governments that want to restart their economies must have public-health systems that are strong enough to detect and respond to cases.

The first and most obvious factor in determining readiness is the number of new cases in a given area. Regions with significant ongoing transmission should expect that restarting economic activity will only lead to more transmission. Case numbers and, more importantly, hospitalizations need to be low enough for a health system to manage individually rather than through mass measures. A second factor in thinking about this is the strength of the systems in place for detecting, managing, and preventing new cases, including adequate medical capacity, especially of intensive care units (ICUs), for those with severe disease; the ability to perform a diagnostic test for COVID-19 with a fast turnaround time; and several other elements.

If we combine a system’s level of strength with an assessment of the intensity of virus transmission, we can evaluate any region’s readiness to restart activity. These two dimensions determine four stages of readiness to reopen the economy, with Stage 4 the least ready and Stage 1 the most.

‘ Europe needs to prepare now to get back to work—safely ’

by David Chinn, Hauke Engel, Daniel Härtl, Milena Quittnat, Pal Erik Sjatil, Marja Seidel, Sven Smit, Sebastian Stern, and Eckart Windhagen

As European countries begin to consider how to exit lockdowns, local leaders are often the people best placed to evaluate conditions and impose measures that maximize economic recovery while protecting public health. Decisions about which measures to deploy, when and where , should be made locally—if possible, district by district—because there are material differences in the severity of the crisis and economic circumstances.

Authorities will need three essential elements to ensure robust implementation. First, leaders will require effective, ready-to-act local-authority structures. In Italy, regional governments collaborated with Rome to establish a national lockdown that allowed regions to apply more stringent rules as necessary.

Second, solutions and directives must be clear and simple, so that the public and businesses can understand them. This might require using new communication channels, such as mobile messaging.

Third, measures must be consistent. If the guidance one day is that shops can admit five people at a time for six hours a day and in the next week that rule changes to two people for eight hours, the results will be irritation, noncompliance, and the erosion of trust in public authorities.

‘ Winning the (local) COVID-19 war ’

by Tom Latkovic, Leah Pollack, and Jordan VanLare, MD

Local US leaders, such as mayors and governors, have an outsized role in the fight against COVID-19. We see six domains for engagement:

Foundational public health. We assessed 23 public-health interventions and identified the most fundamental ones.
Societal compliance. We monitored different approaches to ensure compliance and found a steeper decline in infections where communities enforced policies tightly (through arrests, for example) than in those that used only fines.
Health-system capacity. To prevent demand for healthcare services from outstripping supply, we found that at least a doubling of critical-care capacity is probably possible and necessary, at least temporarily, across most parts of the United States.
Industry safeguards. If the risk of contagion continues for 12 to 18 months, public- and private-sector leaders should promote the most effective adaptations and safeguards to economic activity, including physical barriers, face guards, physical distancing, health screenings before entry, and generous and flexible sick leave. Sectors will vary in how critical they are and their ability to safeguard.
Protection of the vulnerable. COVID-19 is especially destabilizing for vulnerable populations, including people with chronic physical- or behavioral-health conditions, limited mobility, advanced age, and unmet health-related social needs, such as food and housing insecurity. Each will require targeted interventions.
Economic health. Local leaders need to develop a fact base on their economies and then ensure that money from new and current programs gets into the hands of citizens quickly and easily.

‘ Could the next normal emerge from Asia? ’

by Oliver Tonby and Jonathan Woetzel

The COVID-19 outbreak began in Asia—but so have early indications of containment, new protocols, and the resumption of economic activity. Although the risk of another outbreak remains, economic-activity indicators in China suggest that urban activities are returning to pre-outbreak levels. Traffic congestion and residential-property sales are close to where they stood in early January 2020. Air pollution and coal consumption have returned to 74 and 85 percent, respectively, of their January 1 levels. A recent McKinsey survey of 2,500 Chinese consumers indicates “cautious optimism”—a gradual regaining of confidence, which should increase spending. At this moment, strong public-health responses in China, Singapore, and South Korea appear to have been successful. Significant evidence indicates that the curve of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 patients in Asia is becoming flatter.

As companies in the region resume activity, they may be the world’s first to shape the “next normal.” What will that look like? Four dimensions could define it:

Rethinking social contracts. In crises, the state plays an essential and expanded role, protecting people and organizing the response. This power shift transforms long-held expectations about the roles of individuals and institutions.
Defining the future of work and consumption. The crisis has propelled new technology across all aspects of Asian life, from e-commerce to remote-working and -learning tools, including Alibaba’s DingTalk, WeChat Work, and Tencent Meeting. New working and shopping practices will probably become a permanent fixture of the next normal.
Mobilizing resources at speed and scale. Within weeks, China added tens of thousands of doctors and hospital beds. Several governments invested in new tools to map transmission and rolled out huge economic-stimulus plans. Asia has a proven ability to mobilize resources in a crisis.
Moving from globalization to regionalization. The pandemic has exposed the world’s risky dependence on vulnerable nodes in global supply chains. China, for example, accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of global demand for copper, iron ore, metallurgical coal, and nickel. We could see a massive restructuring as production and sourcing move closer to end users and companies localize or regionalize their supply chains.

Matt Craven, MD, is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office. Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office. Shubham Singhal is a senior partner in the Detroit office. Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #4, March 30, 2020

By matt craven, mihir mysore, shubham singhal, sven smit, and matt wilson.

The pandemic continues to expand. More than 175 countries and territories have reported cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Case growth has accelerated to more than 735,000 cases and 35,000 deaths as of March 30. Some geographies have a handful of cases, others with early community transmission have a few hundred, and those with uncontrolled, widespread transmission have tens of thousands. Governments have launched unprecedented public-health and economic responses. The situation evolves by the day.

In this note, we offer some of our latest insights, starting with five likely epidemiologic swing factors that will largely determine the contours of the pandemic in the next year. We then summarize two new articles designed to help senior executives lead through the crisis. In “ Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal ,” we outline five time frames to help leaders organize their thinking and responses. And in “ Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time ,” we explain how business and society can and must take on both spheres of action, right away. These and many more are available in our collection of coronavirus thinking. We conclude with a short list of the areas in which executives should be concentrating their thought and attention.

Epidemiological swing factors for COVID-19

Every country is looking to join the few that have controlled the epidemic for now and are focusing on preventing a resurgence. The next stages in every country are unknowable. But in our view, the spread or control of the virus in the next year comes down to five factors:

Growth of new transmission complexes and evidence of seasonality. While most countries in the world have at least one case, most counts are relatively low. The extent to which these countries follow the path of countries such as Singapore that have achieved rapid control, versus that of western Europe and the United States, will be a major driver of outcomes. Moreover, these geographies also skew to more tropical climates and will provide some evidence on how much of a mitigating effect heat and humidity will have on the coronavirus. If the virus proves to be seasonal, this has the potential to shape both emerging and existing transmission complexes.
Impact of physical-distancing measures. We know that rigorous, at-scale physical-distancing measures can drive a significant reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases. However, given the range of approaches in use—and the varying stringency with which they are being applied—there’s much still to learn about what exactly works and how long it takes. In the next one to two weeks, we will learn much more, as we begin to see evidence of the impact of physical distancing in Europe and the United States.
Efficacy of health-system surge. As the world has awakened to the potential risks of COVID-19, there has been a massive effort to add capacity to the healthcare system rapidly. This has rightly focused on adding acute-care capacity, providing ventilators, and building stocks of other critical medical supplies, such as personal protective equipment. If this surge (combined with efforts to reduce the demand on the health system) can prevent health systems from being overwhelmed, mortality from COVID-19 will be significantly lower. The development of clinically validated treatments could be a similar boon, but the emerging evidence on that front is mixed, thus far.
Readiness of the health system to navigate recurrence. As authorities begin to think about what’s needed to navigate a postpeak environment, the public-health tools deployed will have a different emphasis from today’s focus in Europe and the United States. They will include at-scale testing, sophisticated real-time surveillance, rigorous contact tracing, and rapid, targeted quarantine to isolate cases and contacts. This mix of tools is how Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have rapidly contained COVID-19. An antibody test would be a powerful tool in this arsenal, since it would show which people are at risk and which aren’t. Even as public-health authorities negotiate an unprecedented period of demand on the health system, they will need to design and build systems to prevent resurgence of the disease as we pass the peak.
Emergence of herd immunity. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient portion of the population isn’t susceptible to an infectious disease; at that point, transmission doesn’t propagate, for lack of available hosts. It typically occurs through either widespread exposure or immunization. With a disease as infectious as COVID-19, experts believe that more than two-thirds of the population would need to be immune to create herd immunity. 29 Assumes reproductive number greater than two. A number of recent publications assert this. See, for example, Zhang, S., Diao, M., Yu, W., Pei, L., Lin, Z., and Chen, D., “Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis,” National Center for Biotechnology Information, February 20, 2020, pubmed.gov. But there’s much that we don’t know about the possibility of multiple strains of the virus—and about the duration of human immunity. Answering those questions will have important implications for the course of the pandemic.

Two new insights

We have recently published several new articles on the pandemic. Two have captured the attention of leaders worldwide. We summarize them here and invite you to take in the full case in our collection .

‘ Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal ’

By Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal

What will it take to navigate this crisis, now that our traditional metrics and assumptions have been rendered irrelevant? More simply put, it’s our turn to answer a question that many of us once asked of our grandparents: What did you do during the war?

Our answer is a call to act across five stages, leading from the crisis of today to the next normal that will emerge after the battle against coronavirus has been won: Resolve, Resilience, Return, Reimagination, and Reform.

Collectively, these five stages represent the imperative of our time: the battle against COVID-19 is one that leaders today must win if we are to find an economically and socially viable path to the next normal.

‘ Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time ’

By Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan

We see enormous energy invested in suppressing the coronavirus, while many urge even faster and more rigorous measures. We also see enormous energy expended on stabilizing the economy through public-policy responses. However, to avoid permanent damage to our livelihoods, we need to find ways to “timebox” this event: we must think about how to suppress the virus and shorten the duration of the economic shock.

To aid decision makers, we have developed scenarios, based on three likely paths for the spread of the virus and the public health response, and three potential levels of effectiveness for governmental economic response.

Many leaders currently expect one of the scenarios to materialize. In each of these, the COVID-19 spread is eventually controlled, and catastrophic structural economic damage is avoided. These scenarios describe a global average, while situations will inevitably vary by country and region. But all four of these scenarios lead to V- or U-shaped recoveries.

Other, more extreme scenarios can also be conceived, and some of them are already being discussed. One can’t exclude the possibility of a “black swan of black swans”: structural damage to the economy, caused by a yearlong spread of the virus until a vaccine is widely available, combined with the lack of policy response to prevent widescale bankruptcies, unemployment, and a financial crisis.

Steps to take now

Amid the chaos and all the incoming advice, it’s hard to know exactly what leaders should do today. We suggest they focus their time on four areas:

Support and protect employees in this brave new world. Many institutions have put basic protections in place for their employees and customers. Companies have activated no-travel and work-from-home policies for some workers and physical-distancing-at-work measures for others. The challenge is evolving. For remote workers, interruptions are more frequent than in the office. Making a mental separation from a sometimes-chaotic home life is tough. Workers are finding that they don’t have the skills to be successful in an extended remote environment, from networking to creating routines that drive productivity. They worry that staying remote could make them less valuable, especially in a recessionary environment.

As our colleagues recently explained , three goals are essential. Companies need to increase communication, balancing the needs of the business with expectation setting and morale building, so employees know that their well-being is top of mind. They also need to change working norms, making remote work practical and simple whenever possible. And of course, they must protect people’s health, with whatever measures are appropriate to the workplace: positive hygiene habits, personal protective equipment, amended sick-leave policies—whatever it takes to ensure health and safety.

Monitor leading indicators of how and where the pandemic is evolving and conduct scenario planning using both epidemiological and economic inputs. Earlier, we sketched out the swing factors to watch to understand how the coronavirus pandemic might develop. As companies develop scenarios, they might want to consider the article “ Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time ,” which details McKinsey’s nine epidemiologic and economic scenarios.
Think about the next horizons of COVID-19. In the urgency of the moment, it’s easy to lose sight of the actions that might be needed tomorrow—and the day after that. The article “ Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal ,” explains the five horizons that every executive should use to ensure an organization’s rapid response, adaptation to change, and reemergence in a position of strength.
Evolve the nerve center to plan for the next phase. Every assumption underpinning a business is open to question. To take one example, we might be in the midst of the largest drawdown in demand since the Second World War. The pendulum might not swing back fully once the outbreak has relented. Having experienced a new way of living, consumers are recalibrating their spending, increasing the likelihood that spending may permanently shift between categories and that online services could get adopted far faster. Decoding this new normal—and ensuring that the company has a strategy to navigate it—is an important part of the work of a nerve center . Approaches such as using a portfolio of initiatives and planning for decision making under uncertainty can go a long way toward creating a compass for business leaders to follow.

The next normal will look unlike any in the years preceding the coronavirus, the pandemic that changed everything. In these briefing notes, we aim to provide leaders with an integrated perspective on the unfolding crisis and insight into the coming weeks and months.

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office, Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office, Shubham Singhal is a senior partner in the Detroit office, Sven Smit is a senior partner in the Amsterdam office, and Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #3, March 16, 2020

Current perspectives on the coronavirus outbreak..

At the time of writing, there have been more than 160,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 6,000 deaths from the disease. Older people, especially, are at risk. More than 140 countries and territories have reported cases; more than 80 have confirmed local transmission. Even as the number of new cases in China is falling (to less than 20, on some days), it is increasing exponentially in Italy (doubling approximately every four days). China’s share of new cases has dropped from more than 90 percent a month ago to less than 1 percent today.

WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. In its message, it balanced the certainty that the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) will inevitably spread to all parts of the world, with the observation that governments, businesses, and individuals still have substantial ability to change the disease’s trajectory. In this note, we describe emerging archetypes of epidemic progressions; outline two scenarios for the pandemic and its economic effects; and observe some of the ways that business can improve on its early responses.

Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and our industry expertise. It is only one view, however. Others could review the same facts and emerge with a different view. Our scenarios should be considered only as two among many possibilities. This perspective is current as of March 16, 2020. We will update it regularly as the outbreak evolves.

Archetypes for epidemic progression

Many countries now face the need to bring widespread community transmission of coronavirus under control. While every country’s response is unique, there are three archetypes emerging—two successful and one not—that offer valuable lessons. We present these archetypes while acknowledging that there is much still to be learned about local transmission dynamics and that other outcomes are possible:

Extraordinary measures to limit spread. After the devastating impact of COVID-19 became evident in the Hubei province, China imposed unprecedented measures—building hospitals in ten days, instituting a “lockdown” for almost 60 million people and significant restrictions for hundreds of millions of others, and using broad-based surveillance to ensure compliance—in an attempt to combat the spread. These measures have been successful in rapidly reducing transmission of the virus, even as the economy has been restarting.
Gradual control through effective use of public-health best practices. South Korea experienced rapid case-count growth in the first two weeks of its outbreak, from about 100 total cases on February 19 to more than 800 new cases on February 29. Since then, the number of new cases has dropped steadily, though not as steeply as in China. This was achieved through rigorous implementation of classic public-health tools, often integrating technology. Examples include rapid and widespread deployment of testing (including the drive-through model), rigorous contact tracing informed by technology, a focus on healthcare-provider safety, and real-time integrated tracking and analytics. Singapore and Taiwan appear to have applied a similar approach, also with broadly successful results.
Unsuccessful initial control, leading to overwhelmed health systems. In some outbreaks where case growth has not been contained, hospital capacity has been overwhelmed. The disproportionate impact on healthcare workers and lack of flexibility in the system create a vicious cycle that makes it harder to bring the epidemic under control.

There are also other approaches being considered (such as a focus on reaching herd immunity); the impact of these is unclear.

Two scenarios

Based on new information that emerged last week, we have significantly updated and simplified our earlier scenarios. A number of respected institutions are now projecting very high case counts. The most pessimistic projections typically give the virus full credit for exponential growth but assume that humans will not respond effectively—that is, they assume that many countries will fall into the third archetype described earlier. We believe this is possible but by no means certain. The scenarios below outline two ways that the interplay between the virus and society’s response might unfold and the implications on the economy in each case. There are a number of critical indicators that may provide early notice of which scenario is unfolding.

Delayed recovery

Epidemiology. In this scenario, new case counts in the Americas and Europe rise until mid-April. Asian countries peak earlier; epidemics in Africa and Oceania are limited. Growth in case counts is slowed by effective social distancing through a combination of national and local quarantines, employers choosing to restrict travel and implement work-from-home policies, and individual choices. Testing capacity catches up to need, allowing an accurate picture of the epidemic. The virus proves to be seasonal, further limiting its spread. By mid-May, public sentiment is significantly more optimistic about the epidemic. The Southern Hemisphere winter sees an uptick in cases, but by that point, countries have a better-developed playbook for response. While the autumn of 2020 sees a resurgence of infections, better preparedness enables continued economic activity.

Economic impact. Large-scale quarantines, travel restrictions, and social-distancing measures drive a sharp fall in consumer and business spending until the end of Q2, producing a recession. Although the outbreak comes under control in most parts of the world by late in Q2, the self-reinforcing dynamics of a recession kick in and prolong the slump until the end of Q3. Consumers stay home, businesses lose revenue and lay off workers, and unemployment levels rise sharply. Business investment contracts, and corporate bankruptcies soar, putting significant pressure on the banking and financial system.

Monetary policy is further eased in Q1 but has limited impact, given the prevailing low interest rates. Modest fiscal responses prove insufficient to overcome economic damage in Q2 and Q3. It takes until Q4 for European and US economies to see a genuine recovery. Global GDP in 2020 falls slightly.

Prolonged contraction

Epidemiology. In this scenario, the epidemic does not peak in the Americas and Europe until May, as delayed testing and weak adoption of social distancing stymie the public-health response. The virus does not prove to be seasonal, leading to a long tail of cases through the rest of the year. Africa, Oceania, and some Asian countries also experience widespread epidemics, though countries with younger populations experience fewer deaths in percentage terms. Even countries that have been successful in controlling the epidemic (such as China) are forced to keep some public-health measures in place to prevent resurgence.

Economic impact. Demand suffers as consumers cut spending throughout the year. In the most affected sectors, the number of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies rises throughout 2020, feeding a self-reinforcing downward spiral.

The financial system suffers significant distress, but a full-scale banking crisis is averted because of banks’ strong capitalization and the macroprudential supervision now in place. Fiscal and monetary-policy responses prove insufficient to break the downward spiral.

The global economic impact is severe, approaching the global financial crisis of 2008–09. GDP contracts significantly in most major economies in 2020, and recovery begins only in Q2 2021.

Responding to COVID-19: What companies are missing

Our conversations with hundreds of companies around the world on COVID-19 challenges have allowed us to compile a view of the major work streams that companies are pursuing.

While this list is fairly comprehensive, some companies are taking other steps. However, we have seen evidence that many companies are finding it hard to get the major actions right. We have consistently heard about five challenges.

Having an intellectual understanding isn’t the same as internalizing the reality

Exponential case-count growth is hard to internalize unless you have experienced it before. Managers who haven’t experienced this or been through a “tabletop” simulation are finding it difficult to respond correctly. In particular, escalation mechanisms may be understood in theory, but companies are finding them hard to execute in reality, as the facts on the ground don’t always conform to what it says in the manual. Crisis case studies are replete with examples of managers who chose not to escalate, creating worse issues for their institutions.

Employee safety is paramount, but mechanisms are ineffective

Policy making at many companies is scattershot, especially at those that haven’t yet seen the coronavirus directly. Many, such as professional-services and tech companies, lean very conservative: their protection mechanisms often add to a perception of safety without actually keeping people safer. For instance, temperature checks may not be the most effective form of screening, given that the virus may transmit asymptomatically. Asking employees to stay at home if they are unwell may do more to reduce transmissibility. Such policies are more effective if employees receive compensation protection—and insulation from other consequences too.

Some companies aren’t thinking through the second-order effects of their policies. For example, a ban on travel without a concomitant work-from-home policy can make the office very crowded, leading to higher risk of transmission. Others are adopting company-wide policies without thinking through the needs of each location and each employee segment.

Optimism about the return of demand is dangerous

Being optimistic about demand recovery is a real problem, especially for companies with working-capital or liquidity shortages and those veering toward bankruptcy. Troubled organizations are more likely to believe in a faster recovery—or a shallower downturn. Facing up to the possibility of a deeper, more protracted downturn is essential, since the options available now, before a recession sets in, may be more palatable than those available later. For example, divestments to provide needed cash can be completed at a higher price today than in a few weeks or months.

Assumptions across the enterprise are misaligned

Some companies are pursuing their coronavirus responses strictly within organizational silos (for example, the procurement team is driving supply-chain efforts, sales and marketing teams are working on customer communications, and so on). But these teams have different assumptions and tend to get highly tactical, going deep in their own particular patch of weeds rather than thinking about what other parts of the company are doing—or about what might come next.

The near term is essential, but don’t lose focus on the longer term (which might be worse)

Immediate and effective response is, of course, vital. We think that companies are by and large pursuing the right set of responses. But on many of these work streams, the longer-term dimensions are even more critical. Recession may set in. The disruption of the current outbreak is shifting industry structures. Credit markets may seize up, in spite of stimulus. Supply-chain resilience will be at a premium. It may sound impossible for management teams that are already working 18-hour days, but too few are dedicating the needed time and effort to responses focused on the longer term.

The coronavirus crisis is a story with an unclear ending. What is clear is that the human impact is already tragic, and that companies have an imperative to act immediately to protect their employees, address business challenges and risks, and help to mitigate the outbreak in whatever ways they can.

For the full set of our latest perspectives, please see the attached full briefing materials , which we will update regularly. We welcome your comments and questions at [email protected] .

For more of the latest information on COVID-19, please see reports from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention , the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , and WHO ; and the live tracker of global cases from Johns Hopkins University.

COVID-19: Briefing note #2, March 9, 2020

A range of outcomes is possible. decision makers should not assume the worst..

Less than ten weeks have passed since China reported the existence of a new virus to the World Health Organization. This virus, now known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in the city of Wuhan and throughout China. The country has experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 80,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths. COVID-19 progressed quickly beyond China’s borders. Four other major transmission complexes are now established across the world: East Asia (especially South Korea, with more than 7,000 cases, as well as Singapore and Japan), the Middle East (centered in Iran, with more than 6,500 cases), Europe (especially the Lombardy region in northern Italy, with more than 7,300 cases, but with widespread transmission across the continent), and the United States, with more than 200 cases. Each of these transmission complexes has sprung up in a region where millions of people travel every day for social and economic reasons, making it difficult to prevent the spread of the disease. In addition to these major complexes, many other countries have been affected.

The next phases of the outbreak are profoundly uncertain. In our view, the prevalent narrative, focused on pandemic, to which both markets and policy makers have gravitated as they respond to the virus, is possible but underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome. In this briefing note, we attempt to distinguish the things we know from those we don’t, and the potential implications of both sets of factors. We then outline three potential economic scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities, and conclude with some discussion of the implications for companies’ supply chains, and seven steps businesses can take now to prepare.

Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and on our industry expertise. It is only one view, however. Others could review the same facts and emerge with a different view. Our scenarios should be considered only as three among many possibilities. This perspective is current as of March 9, 2020. We will update it regularly as the outbreak evolves.

What we know, and what we are discovering

What we know. Epidemiologists are in general agreement on two characteristics of COVID-19:

The virus is highly transmissible. Both observed experience and emerging scientific evidence show that the virus causing COVID-19 is easily transmitted from person to person. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the virus’s reproduction number (the number of additional cases that likely result from an initial case) is between 1.6 and 2.4, making COVID-19 significantly more transmissible than seasonal flu (whose reproduction number is estimated at 1.2 to 1.4).
The virus disproportionately affects older people with underlying conditions. Epidemiologists Zunyou Wu and Jennifer McGoogan analyzed a report from China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that looked at more than 72,000 cases and concluded that the fatality rate for patients 80 and older was seven times the average, and three to four times the average for patients in their 70s. 30 Wu Zunyou and Jennifer M. McCoogan, “Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China,” JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association , February 2020, jamanetwork.com. Other reports describe fatality rates for people under 40 to be 0.2 percent.

What we are still discovering. Three characteristics of the virus are not fully understood, but are key variables that will affect how the disease progresses, and the economic scenario that evolves:

The extent of undetected milder cases. We know that those infected often display only mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all), so it is easy for public-health systems to miss such cases. For example, 55 percent of the cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship did not exhibit significant symptoms (even though many passengers were middle-aged or older). But we don’t know for sure whether official statistics are capturing 80 percent, 50 percent, or 20 percent of cases.
Seasonality. There is no evidence so far about the virus’s seasonality (that is, a tendency to subside in the northern hemisphere as spring progresses). Coronaviruses in animals are not always seasonal but have historically been so in humans for reasons that are not fully understood. In the current outbreak, regions with higher temperatures (such as Singapore, India, and Africa) have not yet seen a broad, rapid propagation of the disease.
Asymptomatic transmission. The evidence is mixed about whether asymptomatic people can transmit the virus, and about the length of the incubation period. If asymptomatic transfer is a major driver of the epidemic, then different public-health measures will be needed.

These factors notwithstanding, we have seen that robust public-health responses, like those in China outside Hubei and in Singapore, can help stem the epidemic. But it remains to be seen how these factors will play out and the direct impact they will have. The economic impact too will vary considerably.

Economic impact

In our analysis, three broad economic scenarios might unfold: a quick recovery, a global slowdown, and a pandemic-driven recession. Here, we outline all three. We believe that the prevalent pessimistic narrative (which both markets and policy makers seem to favor as they respond to the virus) underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome to COVID-19 evolution.

Quick recovery

In this scenario, case count continues to grow, given the virus’s high transmissibility. While this inevitably causes a strong public reaction and drop in demand, other countries are able to achieve the same rapid control seen in China, so that the peak in public concern comes relatively soon (within one to two weeks). Given the low fatality rates in children and working-age adults, we might also see levels of concern start to ebb even as the disease continues to spread. Working-age adults remain concerned about their parents and older friends, neighbors, and colleagues, and take steps to ensure their safety. Older people, especially those with underlying conditions, pull back from many activities. Most people outside the transmission complexes continue their normal daily lives.

The scenario assumes that younger people are affected enough to change some daily habits (for example, they wash hands more frequently) but not so much that they shift to survival mode and take steps that come at a higher cost, such as staying home from work and keeping children home from school. A complicating factor, not yet analyzed, is that workers in the gig economy, such as rideshare drivers, may continue to report to work despite requests to stay home, lest they lose income. This scenario also presumes that the virus is seasonal.

In this scenario, our model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics suggests that global GDP growth for 2020 falls from previous consensus estimates of about 2.5 percent to about 2.0 percent. The biggest factors are a fall in China’s GDP from nearly 6 percent growth to about 4.7 percent; a one-percentage-point drop in GDP growth for East Asia; and drops of up to 0.5 percentage points for other large economies around the world. The US economy recovers by the end of Q1. By that point, China resumes most of its factory output; but consumer confidence there does not fully recover until end Q2. These are estimates, based on a particular scenario. They should not be considered predictions.

Global slowdown

This scenario assumes that most countries are not able to achieve the same rapid control that China managed. In Europe and the United States, transmission is high but remains localized, partly because individuals, firms, and governments take strong countermeasures (including school closings and cancellation of public events). For the United States, the scenario assumes between 10,000 and 500,000 total cases. It assumes one major epicenter with 40 to 50 percent of all cases, two or three smaller centers with 10 to 15 percent of all cases, and a “long tail” of towns with a handful or a few dozen cases. This scenario sees some spread in Africa, India, and other densely populated areas, but the transmissibility of the virus declines naturally with the northern hemisphere spring.

This scenario sees much greater shifts in people’s daily behaviors. This reaction lasts for six to eight weeks in towns and cities with active transmission, and three to four weeks in neighboring towns. The resulting demand shock cuts global GDP growth for 2020 in half, to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent, and pulls the global economy into a slowdown, though not recession.

In this scenario, a global slowdown would affect small and mid-size companies more acutely. Less developed economies would suffer more than advanced economies. And not all sectors are equally affected in this scenario. Service sectors, including aviation, travel, and tourism, are likely to be hardest hit. Airlines have already experienced a steep fall in traffic on their highest-profit international routes (especially in Asia–Pacific). In this scenario, airlines miss out on the summer peak travel season, leading to bankruptcies (FlyBe, the UK regional carrier, is an early example) and consolidation across the sector. A wave of consolidation was already possible in some parts of the industry; COVID-19 would serve as an accelerant.

In consumer goods, the steep drop in consumer demand will likely mean delayed demand. This has implications for the many consumer companies (and their suppliers) that operate on thin working-capital margins. But demand returns in May–June as concern about the virus diminishes. For most other sectors, the impact is a function primarily of the drop in national and global GDP, rather than a direct impact of changed behaviors. Oil and gas, for instance, will be adversely affected as oil prices stay lower than expected until Q3.

Pandemic and recession

This scenario is similar to the global slowdown, except it assumes that the virus is not seasonal (unaffected by spring in the northern hemisphere). Case growth continues throughout Q2 and Q3, potentially overwhelming healthcare systems around the world and pushing out a recovery in consumer confidence to Q3 or beyond. This scenario results in a recession, with global growth in 2020 falling to between –1.5 percent and 0.5 percent.

Supply-chain challenges

For many companies around the world, the most important consideration from the first ten weeks of the COVID-19 outbreak has been the effect on supply chains that begin in or go through China. As a result of the factory shutdowns in China during Q1, many disruptions have been felt across the supply chain, though the full effects are of course still unclear.

Hubei is still in the early phases of its recovery; case count is down, but fatality rates remain high, and many restrictions remain that will prevent a resumption of normal activity until early Q2. In the rest of China, however, many large companies report that they are running at more than 90 percent capacity as of March 1. While some real challenges remain, such as lower than usual availability of migrant labor, there is little question that plants are returning back to work quickly.

Trucking capacity to ship goods from factories to ports is at about 60 to 80 percent of normal capacity. Goods are facing delays of between eight and ten days on their journey to ports.

The Baltic Dry Index (which measures freight rates for grains and other dry goods around the world) dropped by about 15 percent at the onset of the outbreak but has increased by nearly 30 percent since then. The TAC index, which measures air-freight prices, has also risen by about 15 percent since early February.

In the next few months, the phased restart of plants outside Hubei (and the slower progress of plants within Hubei) is likely to lead to challenges in securing critical parts. As inventories are run down faster, parts shortages are likely to become the new reason why plants in China cannot operate at full capacity. Moreover, plants that depend on Chinese output (which is to say, most factories around the world) have not yet experienced the brunt of the initial Chinese shutdown and are likely to experience inventory “whiplash” in the coming weeks.

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty for supply-chain managers and production heads is customer demand. Customers that have prebooked logistics capacity may not use it; customers may compete for prioritization in receiving a factory’s output; and the unpredictability of the timing and extent of demand rebound will mean confusing signals for several weeks.

Responding to COVID-19

In our experience, seven actions can help businesses of all kinds. We outline them here as an aid to leaders as they think through crisis management for their companies. These are only guidelines; they are by no means exhaustive or detailed enough to substitute for a thorough analysis of a company’s particular situation.

Protect your employees. The COVID-19 crisis has been emotionally challenging for many people, changing day-to-day life in unprecedented ways. For companies, business as usual is not an option. They can start by drawing up and executing a plan to support employees that is consistent with the most conservative guidelines that might apply and has trigger points for policy changes. Some companies are actively benchmarking their efforts against others to determine the right policies and levels of support for their people. Some of the more interesting models we have seen involve providing clear, simple language to local managers on how to deal with COVID-19 (consistent with WHO, CDC, and other health-agency guidelines) while providing autonomy to them so they feel empowered to deal with any quickly evolving situation. This autonomy is combined with establishing two-way communications that provide a safe space for employees to express if they are feeling unsafe for any reason, as well as monitoring adherence to updated policies.

Set up a cross-functional COVID-19 response team. Companies should nominate a direct report of the CEO to lead the effort and should appoint members from every function and discipline to assist. Further, in most cases, team members will need to step out of their day-to-day roles and dedicate most of their time to virus response. A few workstreams will be common for most companies: a) employees’ health, welfare, and ability to perform their roles; b) financial stress-testing and development of a contingency plan; c) supply-chain monitoring, rapid response, and long-term resiliency (see below for more); d) marketing and sales responses to demand shocks; and e) coordination and communication with relevant constituencies. These subteams should define specific goals for the next 48 hours, adjusted continually, as well as weekly goals, all based on the company’s agreed-on planning scenario. The response team should install a simple operating cadence and discipline that focuses on output and decisions, and does not tolerate meetings that achieve neither.

Ensure that liquidity is sufficient to weather the storm. Businesses need to define scenarios tailored to the company’s context. For the critical variables that will affect revenue and cost, they can define input numbers through analytics and expert input. Companies should model their financials (cash flow, P&L, balance sheet) in each scenario and identify triggers that might significantly impair liquidity. For each such trigger, companies should define moves to stabilize the organization in each scenario (optimizing accounts payable and receivable; cost reduction; divestments and M&A).

Stabilize the supply chain. Companies need to define the extent and likely duration of their supply-chain exposure to areas that are experiencing community transmission, including tier-1, -2, and -3 suppliers, and inventory levels. Most companies are primarily focused on immediate stabilization, given that most Chinese plants are currently in restart mode. They also need to consider rationing critical parts, prebooking rail/air-freight capacity, using after-sales stock as a bridge until production restarts, gaining higher priority from their suppliers, and, of course, supporting supplier restarts. Companies should start planning how to manage supply for products that may, as supply comes back on line, see unusual spikes in demand due to hoarding. In some cases, medium or longer-term stabilization may be warranted, which calls for updates to demand planning, further network optimization, and searching for and accelerating qualification of new suppliers. Some of this may be advisable anyway, absent the current crisis, to ensure resilience in their supply chain—an ongoing challenge that the COVID-19 situation has clearly highlighted.

Stay close to your customers. Companies that navigate disruptions better often succeed because they invest in their core customer segments and anticipate their behaviors. In China, for example, while consumer demand is down, it has not disappeared—people have dramatically shifted toward online shopping for all types of goods, including food and produce delivery . Companies should invest in online as part of their push for omnichannel distribution; this includes ensuring the quality of goods sold online. Customers’ changing preferences are not likely to go back to pre-outbreak norms.

Practice the plan. Many top teams do not invest time in understanding what it takes to plan for disruptions until they are in one. This is where roundtables or simulations are invaluable. Companies can use tabletop simulations to define and verify their activation protocols for different phases of response (contingency planning only, full-scale response, other). Simulations should clarify decision owners, ensure that roles for each top-team member are clear, call out the “elephants in the room” that may slow down the response, and ensure that, in the event, the actions needed to carry out the plan are fully understood and the required investment readily available.

Demonstrate purpose. Businesses are only as strong as the communities of which they are a part. Companies need to figure out how to support response efforts—such as by providing money, equipment, or expertise. For example, a few companies have shifted production to create medical masks and clothing.

COVID-19: Briefing note #1, March 2, 2020

The following is mckinsey’s perspective as of march 2, 2020., what we know about the outbreak.

COVID-19 crossed an inflection point during the week of February 24, 2020. Cases outside China exceeded those within China for the first time, with 54 countries reporting cases as of February 29. The outbreak is most concentrated in four transmission complexes—China (centered in Hubei), East Asia (centered in South Korea and Japan), the Middle East (centered in Iran), and Western Europe (centered in Italy). In total, the most-affected countries represent nearly 40 percent of the global economy. The daily movements of people and the sheer number of personal connections within these transmission complexes make it unlikely that COVID-19 can be contained. And while the situation in China has stabilized with the implementation of extraordinary public-health measures, new cases are also rising elsewhere, including Latin America (Brazil), the United States (California, Oregon, and Washington), and Africa (Algeria and Nigeria). The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has set clear expectations that the United States will experience community transmission, and evidence is emerging that it may be happening already.

While the future is uncertain, it is likely that countries in the four mature transmission complexes will see continued case growth; new complexes may emerge. This could contribute to a perception of “leakage,” as the public comes to believe that the infections aren’t contained. Consumer confidence, especially in those complexes, may erode, and could be further weakened by restrictions on travel and limits on mass gatherings. China will mostly likely recover first, but the global impact will be felt much longer. We expect a slowdown in global growth for 2020. In what follows, we review the two most likely scenarios for economic impact and recovery and provide insights and best practices on how business leaders can navigate this uncertain and fast-changing situation.

In our base-case scenario, continued spread within established complexes, as well as community transmission in new complexes, drives a 0.3- to 0.7-percentage-point reduction in global GDP growth for 2020. China, meanwhile, continues on its path to recovery, achieving a near-complete economic restart by mid-Q2 (in spite of the current challenges of slow permissions and lack of migrant-worker capacity). As other geographies experience continued case growth, it is likely that movement restrictions will be imposed to attempt to stop or slow the progression of the disease. This will almost certainly drive a sharp reduction in demand, which in turn lowers economic growth through Q2 and early Q3. Demand recovery will depend on a slowing of case growth, the most likely cause of which would be “seasonality”—a reduction in transmissions similar to that seen with influenza in the northern hemisphere as the weather warms. Demand may also return if the disease’s fatality ratio proves to be much lower than we are currently seeing.

Regions that have not yet seen rapid case growth (such as the Americas) are increasingly likely to see more sustained community transmission (for example, expansion of the emergency clusters in the western United States). Greater awareness of COVID-19, plus additional time to prepare, may help these complexes manage case growth. However, complexes with less robust health systems could see more general transmission. Lower demand could slow growth of the global economy between 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent instead of the 2.5 percent envisioned at the start of the year.

Unsurprisingly, sectors will be affected to different degrees. Some sectors, like aviation, tourism, and hospitality, will see lost demand (once customers choose not to eat at a restaurant, those meals stay uneaten). This demand is largely irrecoverable. Other sectors will see delayed demand. In consumer goods, for example, customers may put off discretionary spending because of worry about the pandemic but will eventually purchase such items later, once the fear subsides and confidence returns. These demand shocks—extended for some time in regions that are unable to contain the virus—can mean significantly lower annual growth. Some sectors, such as aviation, will be more deeply affected.

In the pessimistic scenario, case numbers grow rapidly in current complexes and new centers of sustained community transmission erupt in North America, South America, and Africa. Our pessimistic scenario assumes that the virus is not highly seasonal, and that cases continue to grow throughout 2020. This scenario would see significant impact on economic growth throughout 2020, resulting in a global recession.

In both the base-case and pessimistic scenarios, in addition to facing consumer-demand headwinds, companies will need to navigate supply-chain challenges. Currently, we see that companies with strong, centralized procurement teams and good relationships with suppliers in China are feeling more confident about their understanding of the risks these suppliers face (including tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers). Others are still grappling with their exposure in China and other transmission complexes. Given the relatively quick economic restart in China, many companies are focused on temporary stabilization measures rather than moving supply chains out of China. COVID-19 is also serving as an accelerant for companies to make strategic, longer-term changes to supply chains—changes that had often already been under consideration.

To better understand which scenario may prevail, planning teams can consider a set of leading indicators.

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office; Linda Liu is a partner in the New York office, where Matt Wilson is a senior partner; and Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office.

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The dissertation journey during the COVID-19 pandemic: Crisis or opportunity?

Affiliation.

1 The International Master's Program of Tourism and Hospitality, National Kaohsiung University of Hospitality and Tourism, No. 1, Songhe Rd., Xiaogang Dist, Kaohsiung City, 812, Taiwan.
PMID: 35221798
PMCID: PMC8858711
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhlste.2022.100374

Despite dissertation's significance in enhancing the quality of scholarly outputs in tourism and hospitality fields, insufficient research investigates the challenges and disruptions students experience amidst a public health crisis. This study aims to fill the research gaps and integrate attribution and self-efficacy theories to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic influences students' decision-making and behaviours during the dissertation writing process. Qualitative exploration with 15 graduate students was conducted. The results indicate that adjustment of data collection approaches was the most shared external challenge, while students' religious background and desire for publishing COVID related topics were primary internal motivations.

Keywords: Attribution theory; COVID-19; Dissertation writing; Pandemic; Self-efficacy theory.

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Alberta to amend provincial Bill of Rights to allow people to opt out of vaccines

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says the UCP government plans to change the province’s Bill of Rights to add the right to decide whether to receive a vaccination or other medical procedure to the Alberta Bill of Rights. JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, less than six weeks away from a leadership review, laid out plans to amend the province’s Bill of Rights to reinforce the right to decide whether to receive a vaccination or other medical procedure and to strengthen liberties around property and gun ownership.

Ms. Smith, in a video posted to her social media on Tuesday, said her United Conservative government will introduce legislation with the proposed amendments in a “few weeks.” She did not drill down on the specifics of the changes but said they will ensure Alberta is a “beacon of freedom.”

“It is my firm conviction that no Albertan should ever be subjected or pressured into accepting a medical treatment without their full consent,” said Ms. Smith, who won leadership of the UCP by rallying against COVID-19 restrictions implemented to protect public health, including vaccine passports and gathering limits.

“These amendments to the Bill of Rights are not just legal changes. They are a reaffirmation of the values that make Alberta one of the freest jurisdictions on Earth.”

Ms. Smith faces a leadership vote in November from a conservative movement that has a history of turning on its own people. Her predecessor, Jason Kenney, resigned in May, 2022, after receiving just 51-per-cent support in a party vote. Past premiers Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford faced similar demises as a result of internal pressures.

Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said Ms. Smith is “clearly concerned” with her standing among UCP members and that the proposed legislation is an attempt to tamp down pressure from the vocal and well-organized far-right fringe of her party.

“This is a really strong initiative to try to ensure that she not only survives the review, but does very well,” said Prof. Williams. But appeasing this faction may alienate UCP members with more moderate views, she said. “Polling indicates that will be problematic for her in the long term.”

The Premier’s plan to update the Bill of Rights comes as no shock to Alberta political watchers, especially as it relates to vaccinations.

The Globe and Mail revealed last December that Ms. Smith’s government directed the provincial health authority to pare back its immunization campaign for COVID-19 and influenza despite the rise of respiratory illnesses. She has also commissioned two reviews into the COVID-19 response, both of which were led by people who expressed skepticism of COVID-19 vaccines and pandemic restrictions.

In former Reform Party leader Preston Manning’s report, it recommended that the provincial Bill of Rights be expanded to include protection on the basis of “opinion, disability and medical status or history.”

Lorian Hardcastle, an assistant professor in the Faculty of Law and Cumming School of Medicine at the University of Calgary, said people already have a right to make medical choices without coercion. She’s worried, however, that the amendments might have more far-reaching impact.

For example, Prof. Hardcastle said, they could prevent employers of long-term care facilities from requiring employees to get vaccinated against the flu or impede the College of Physicians and Surgeons from disciplining a doctor who speaks out against vaccines. She said the government could effectively be tying its own hands, and the hands of others, to address another public-health outbreak.

“Having a premier that would rather pander to anti-vaxxers than strongly encourage vaccination and embrace the fact that vaccines are demonstrably safe and effective, I think that’s potentially another strike against health care workers coming to this province,” she said. “It’s seen as a place that doesn’t embrace the science, that doesn’t embrace evidence.”

Ms. Smith said the amendments will also enshrine Albertans’ right to legally acquire, keep and “safely use” firearms. She said law-abiding gun owners have been unfairly targeted by the federal government – a response to Ottawa’s ban and buyback program aimed at restricting “assault-style” weapons.

Additionally, the updated Bill of Rights would ensure that “no Albertan can be deprived of their property without due process of law and just compensation,” said the Premier.

Prof. Williams noted that the federal government has jurisdiction over firearms and that property protections are restricted under criminal law, meaning the province could face legal challenges.

New Democratic Party Leader Naheed Nenshi, in a statement, noted that the provincial Bill of Rights cannot override the fundamental human rights protected by the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. He said Ms. Smith is pandering to her base rather than focusing on the priorities of Albertans, such as the affordability crisis and a crumbling health system.

“The Premier’s constant playing to her base isn’t just irritating, it has real consequences,” said Mr. Nenshi. “For example, she’s focused on people who refuse to get a vaccine. She is not focused on parents who want the best care for their kids or for those struggling with mental health and addiction who continue to lack access to critical services.”

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2021)

Chapter: 8 major findings and research questions, 8 major findings and research questions, introduction.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in late 2019, created unprecedented global disruption and infused a significant level of uncertainty into the lives of individuals, both personally and professionally, around the world throughout 2020. The significant effect on vulnerable populations, such as essential workers and the elderly, is well documented, as is the devastating effect the COVID-19 pandemic had on the economy, particularly brick-and-mortar retail and hospitality and food services. Concurrently, the deaths of unarmed Black people at the hands of law enforcement officers created a heightened awareness of the persistence of structural injustices in U.S. society.

Against the backdrop of this public health crisis, economic upheaval, and amplified social consciousness, an ad hoc committee was appointed to review the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) during 2020. The committee’s work built on the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report Promising Practices for Addressing the Underrepresentation of Women in Science, Engineering, and Medicine: Opening Doors (the Promising Practices report), which presents evidence-based recommendations to address the well-established structural barriers that impede the advancement of women in STEMM. However, the committee recognized that none of the actions identified in the Promising Practices report were conceived within the context of a pandemic, an economic downturn, or the emergence of national protests against structural racism. The representation and vitality of academic women in STEMM had already warranted national attention prior to these events, and the COVID-19

pandemic appeared to represent an additional risk to the fragile progress that women had made in some STEMM disciplines. Furthermore, the future will almost certainly hold additional, unforeseen disruptions, which underscores the importance of the committee’s work.

In times of stress, there is a risk that the divide will deepen between those who already have advantages and those who do not. In academia, senior and tenured academics are more likely to have an established reputation, a stable salary commitment, and power within the academic system. They are more likely, before the COVID-19 pandemic began, to have established professional networks, generated data that can be used to write papers, and achieved financial and job security. While those who have these advantages may benefit from a level of stability relative to others during stressful times, those who were previously systemically disadvantaged are more likely to experience additional strain and instability.

As this report has documented, during 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic had overall negative effects on women in academic STEMM in areas such productivity, boundary setting and boundary control, networking and community building, burnout rates, and mental well-being. The excessive expectations of caregiving that often fall on the shoulders of women cut across career timeline and rank (e.g., graduate student, postdoctoral scholar, non-tenure-track and other contingent faculty, tenure-track faculty), institution type, and scientific discipline. Although there have been opportunities for innovation and some potential shifts in expectations, increased caregiving demands associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, such as remote working, school closures, and childcare and eldercare, had disproportionately negative outcomes for women.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in STEMM during 2020 are understood better through an intentionally intersectional lens. Productivity, career, boundary setting, mental well-being, and health are all influenced by the ways in which social identities are defined and cultivated within social and power structures. Race and ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, academic career stage, appointment type, institution type, age, and disability status, among many other factors, can amplify or diminish the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for a given person. For example, non-cisgender women may be forced to return to home environments where their gender identity is not accepted, increasing their stress and isolation, and decreasing their well-being. Women of Color had a higher likelihood of facing a COVID-19–related death in their family compared with their white, non-Hispanic colleagues. The full extent of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for women of various social identities was not fully understood at the end of 2020.

Considering the relative paucity of women in many STEMM fields prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, women are more likely to experience academic isolation, including limited access to mentors, sponsors, and role models that share gender, racial, or ethnic identities. Combining this reality with the physical isolation stipulated by public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic,

women in STEMM were subject to increasing isolation within their fields, networks, and communities. Explicit attention to the early indicators of how the COVID-19 pandemic affected women in academic STEMM careers during 2020, as well as attention to crisis responses throughout history, may provide opportunities to mitigate some of the long-term effects and potentially develop a more resilient and equitable academic STEMM system.

MAJOR FINDINGS

Given the ongoing nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was not possible to fully understand the entirety of the short- or long-term implications of this global disruption on the careers of women in academic STEMM. Having gathered preliminary data and evidence available in 2020, the committee found that significant changes to women’s work-life boundaries and divisions of labor, careers, productivity, advancement, mentoring and networking relationships, and mental health and well-being have been observed. The following findings represent those aspects that the committee agreed have been substantiated by the preliminary data, evidence, and information gathered by the end of 2020. They are presented either as Established Research and Experiences from Previous Events or Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic during 2020 that parallel the topics as presented in the report.

Established Research and Experiences from Previous Events

Leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, the representation of women has slowly increased in STEMM fields, from acquiring Ph.D.s to holding leadership positions, but with caveats to these limited steps of progress; for example, women representation in leadership positions tends to be at institutions with less prestige and fewer resources. While promising and encouraging, such progress is fragile and prone to setbacks especially in times of crisis (see ).

Social crises (e.g., terrorist attacks, natural disasters, racialized violence, and infectious diseases) and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions to workload and schedules, added to formerly routine job functions and health risks, have the potential to exacerbate mental health conditions such as insomnia, depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress. All of these conditions occur more frequently among women than men. As multiple crises coincided during 2020, there is a greater chance that women will be affected mentally and physically (see and ).

___________________

1 This finding is primarily based on research on cisgender women and men.

Structural racism is an omnipresent stressor for Women of Color, who already feel particularly isolated in many fields and disciplines. Attempts to ensure equity for all women may not necessarily create equity for women across various identities if targeted interventions designed to promote gender equity do not account for the racial and ethnic heterogeneity of women in STEMM (see , , and ).

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic during 2020

	While some research indicates consistency in publications authored by women in specific STEMM disciplines, like Earth and space sciences, during 2020, several other preliminary measures of productivity suggest that COVID-19 disruptions have disproportionately affected women compared with men. Reduced productivity may be compounded by differences in the ways research is conducted, such as whether field research or face-to-face engagement with human subjects is required (see ).
	Many administrative decisions regarding institutional supports made during 2020, such as work-from-home provisions and extensions on evaluations or deliverables, are likely to exacerbate underlying gender-based inequalities in academic advancement rather than being gender neutral as assumed. For example, while colleges and universities have offered extensions for those on the tenure track and federal and private funders have offered extensions on funding and grants, these changes do not necessarily align with the needs expressed by women, such as the need for flexibility to contend with limited availability of caregiving and requests for a reduced workload, nor do they generally benefit women faculty who are not on the tenure track. Furthermore, provision of institutional support may be insufficient if it does not account for the challenges faced by those with multiple marginalized identities (see and ).
	Organizational-level approaches may be needed to address challenges that have emerged as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as well as those challenges that may have existed before the pandemic but are now more visible and amplified. Reliance on individual coping strategies may be insufficient (see and ).
	The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified complications related to worklife boundaries that largely affect women. Preliminary evidence

	from 2020 suggests women in academic STEMM are experiencing increased workload, decreased productivity, changes in interactions, and difficulties from remote work caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated disruptions. Combined with the gendered division of nonemployment labor that affected women before the pandemic, these challenges have been amplified, as demonstrated by a lack of access to childcare, children’s heightened behavioral and academic needs, increased eldercare demands, and personal physical and mental health concerns. These are particularly salient for women who are parents or caregivers (see ).
	During the COVID-19 pandemic, technology has allowed for the continuation of information exchange and many collaborations. In some cases technology has facilitated the increased participation of women and underrepresented groups. However, preliminary indicators also show gendered impacts on science and scientific collaborations during 2020. These arise because some collaborations cannot be facilitated online and some collaborations face challenges including finding time in the day to engage synchronously, which presents a larger burden for women who manage the larger share of caregiving and other household duties, especially during the first several months of the COVID-19 pandemic (see ).
	During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, some professional societies adapted to the needs of members as well as to broader interests of individuals engaged in the disciplines they serve. Transitioning conferences to virtual platforms has produced both positive outcomes, such as lower attendance costs and more open access to content, and negative outcomes, including over-flexibility (e.g., scheduling meetings at non-traditional work hours; last-minute changes) and opportunities for bias in virtual environments (see ).
	During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many of the decision-making processes, including financial decisions like lay-offs and furloughs, that were quickly implemented contributed to unilateral decisions that frequently deviated from effective practices in academic governance, such as those in crisis and equity-minded leadership. Fast decisions greatly affected contingent and nontenured faculty members—positions that are more often occupied by women and People of Color. In 2020, these financial decisions already had negative, short-term effects and may portend long-term consequences (see ).
	Social support, which is particularly important during stressful situations, is jeopardized by the physical isolation and restricted social interactions that have

	been imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. For women who are already isolated within their specific fields or disciplines, additional social isolation may be an important contributor to added stress (see ).
	For women in the health professions, major risk factors during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 included unpredictability in clinical work, evolving clinical and leadership roles, the psychological demands of unremitting and stressful work, and heightened health risks to family and self (see ).

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

While this report compiled much of the research, data, and evidence available in 2020 on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, future research is still needed to understand all the potential effects, especially any long-term implications. The research questions represent areas the committee identified for future research, rather than specific recommendations. They are presented in six categories that parallel the chapters of the report: Cross-Cutting Themes; Academic Productivity and Institutional Responses; Work-Life Boundaries and Gendered Divisions of Labor; Collaboration, Networking, and Professional Societies; Academic Leadership and Decision-Making; and Mental Health and Well-being. The committee hopes the report will be used as a basis for continued understanding of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in its entirety and as a reference for mitigating impacts of future disruptions that affect women in academic STEMM. The committee also hopes that these research questions may enable academic STEMM to emerge from the pandemic era a stronger, more equitable place for women. Therefore, the committee identifies two types of research questions in each category; listed first are those questions aimed at understanding the impacts of the disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by those questions exploring the opportunities to help support the full participation of women in the future.

Cross-Cutting Themes

What are the short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the career trajectories, job stability, and leadership roles of women, particularly of Black women and other Women of Color? How do these effects vary across institutional characteristics, 2 discipline, and career stage?

2 Institutional characteristics include different institutional types (e.g., research university, liberal arts college, community college), locales (e.g., urban, rural), missions (e.g., Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, Asian American/Native American/Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities), and levels of resources.

How did the confluence of structural racism, economic hardships, and environmental disruptions affect Women of Color during the COVID-19 pandemic? Specifically, how did the murder of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and other Black citizens impact Black women academics’ safety, ability to be productive, and mental health?
How has the inclusion of women in leadership and other roles in the academy influenced the ability of institutions to respond to the confluence of major social crises during the COVID-19 pandemic?
How can institutions build on the involvement women had across STEMM disciplines during the COVID-19 pandemic to increase the participation of women in STEMM and/or elevate and support women in their current STEMM-related positions?
How can institutions adapt, leverage, and learn from approaches developed during 2020 to attend to challenges experienced by Women of Color in STEMM in the future?

Academic Productivity and Institutional Responses

How did the institutional responses (e.g., policies, practices) that were outlined in the Major Findings impact women faculty across institutional characteristics and disciplines?
What are the short- and long-term effects of faculty evaluation practices and extension policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic on the productivity and career trajectories of members of the academic STEMM workforce by gender?
What adaptations did women use during the transition to online and hybrid teaching modes? How did these techniques and adaptations vary as a function of career stage and institutional characteristics?
What are examples of institutional changes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that have the potential to reduce systemic barriers to participation and advancement that have historically been faced by academic women in STEMM, specifically Women of Color and other marginalized women in STEMM? How might positive institutional responses be leveraged to create a more resilient and responsive higher education ecosystem?
How can or should funding arrangements be altered (e.g., changes in funding for research and/or mentorship programs) to support new ways of interaction for women in STEMM during times of disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic?

Work-Life Boundaries and Gendered Divisions of Labor

How do different social identities (e.g., racial; socioeconomic status; culturally, ethnically, sexually, or gender diverse; immigration status; parents of young children and other caregivers; women without partners) influence the management of work-nonwork boundaries? How did this change during the COVID-19 pandemic?
How have COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions affected progress toward reducing the gender gap in academic STEMM labor-force participation? How does this differ for Women of Color or women with caregiving responsibilities?
How can institutions account for the unique challenges of women faculty with parenthood and caregiving responsibilities when developing effective and equitable policies, practices, or programs?
How might insights gained about work-life boundaries during the COVID-19 pandemic inform how institutions develop and implement supportive resources (e.g., reductions in workload, on-site childcare, flexible working options)?

Collaboration, Networking, and Professional Societies

What were the short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic-prompted switch from in-person conferences to virtual conferences on conference culture and climate, especially for women in STEMM?
How will the increase in virtual conferences specifically affect women’s advancement and career trajectories? How will it affect women’s collaborations?
How has the shift away from attending conferences and in-person networking changed longer-term mentoring and sponsoring relationships, particularly in terms of gender dynamics?
How can institutions maximize the benefits of digitization and the increased use of technology observed during the COVID-19 pandemic to continue supporting women, especially marginalized women, by increasing accessibility, collaborations, mentorship, and learning?
How can organizations that support, host, or facilitate online and virtual conferences and networking events (1) ensure open and fair access to participants who face different funding and time constraints; (2) foster virtual connections among peers, mentors, and sponsors; and (3) maintain an inclusive environment to scientists of all backgrounds?
What policies, practices, or programs can be developed to help women in STEMM maintain a sense of support, structure, and stability during and after periods of disruption?

Academic Leadership and Decision-Making

What specific interventions did colleges and universities initiate or prioritize to ensure that women were included in decision-making processes during responses to the COVID-19 pandemic?
How effective were colleges and universities that prioritized equity-minded leadership, shared leadership, and crisis leadership styles at mitigating emerging and potential negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women in their communities?
What specific aspects of different leadership models translated to more effective strategies to advance women in STEMM, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic?
How can examples of intentional inclusion of women in decision-making processes during the COVID-19 pandemic be leveraged to develop the engagement of women as leaders at all levels of academic institutions?
What are potential “top-down” structural changes in academia that can be implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or other disruptions?
How can academic leadership, at all levels, more effectively support the mental health needs of women in STEMM?

Mental Health and Well-being

What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and institutional responses on the mental health and well-being of members of the academic STEMM workforce as a function of gender, race, and career stage?
How are tools and diagnostic tests to measure aspects of wellbeing, including burnout and insomnia, used in academic settings? How does this change during times of increased stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic?
How might insights gained about mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic be used to inform preparedness for future disruptions?
How can programs that focus on changes in biomarkers of stress and mood dysregulation, such as levels of sleep, activity, and texting patterns, be developed and implemented to better engage women in addressing their mental health?
What are effective interventions to address the health of women academics in STEMM that specifically account for the effects of stress on women? What are effective interventions to mitigate the excessive levels of stress for Women of Color?

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The spring of 2020 marked a change in how almost everyone conducted their personal and professional lives, both within science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) and beyond. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global scientific conferences and individual laboratories and required people to find space in their homes from which to work. It blurred the boundaries between work and non-work, infusing ambiguity into everyday activities. While adaptations that allowed people to connect became more common, the evidence available at the end of 2020 suggests that the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic endangered the engagement, experience, and retention of women in academic STEMM, and may roll back some of the achievement gains made by women in the academy to date.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine identifies, names, and documents how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the careers of women in academic STEMM during the initial 9-month period since March 2020 and considers how these disruptions - both positive and negative - might shape future progress for women. This publication builds on the 2020 report Promising Practices for Addressing the Underrepresentation of Women in Science, Engineering, and Medicine to develop a comprehensive understanding of the nuanced ways these disruptions have manifested. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Careers of Women in Academic Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will inform the academic community as it emerges from the pandemic to mitigate any long-term negative consequences for the continued advancement of women in the academic STEMM workforce and build on the adaptations and opportunities that have emerged.

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